The Dim-Post

October 29, 2008

Shocked! Shocked and . . . well, maybe not so shocked.

Filed under: Politics — danylmc @ 8:25 am
Tags: ,

I cannot muster up the energy to be outraged about the latest Winston Peters allegations, possibly because it seemed obvious that Peters lobbied to have Glenn made consul to Monaco and the TVNZ investigation has only confirmed what everybody kind of knew all along.

I don’t think this will hurt Winston – his voters seem impervious to events back here in reality – but will probably damage Labour. Its a reminder that a vote for Helen is a vote for her gleefully corrupt and dishonest foreign minister who hates foreigners.

Like everybody else I’ve had conversations this year with life-long Labour supporters who were planning to vote National for the first time ever (Deborah at In A Strange Land sums up this sentiment nicely, although she doesn’t reveal who she’ll be switching her vote to); in the past couple of weeks a couple of them have told me they’re drifting back to Labour. This will surely help to stop that rot.

When will this show up in the polls? I’m not sure – my normal rule of thumb is that it takes three to five weeks for political developments to manifest themselves in the polls – this has served pretty well so far this year: often when political commentators struggle to find post-hoc explanations for a new poll based on the last weeks events you only have to ask yourself what happened a month and a half ago and everything starts to make sense.

I’m not sure if this will hold true during an election campaign when almost everyone is paying attention to politics though – but its worth bearing in mind that the polls being conducted right now are the ones that will be released just before the election, so everything that happens from here on in will not be properly reflected in the polls until after the election.

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5 Comments »

  1. Probably the Maori party for my party vote, and a vote for the Labour candidate in Wellington Central.

    I’m casting the vote for the Maori party in defence of MMP, and in support of people who have some integrity.

    Comment by Deborah — October 29, 2008 @ 9:36 am

  2. “I’m casting the vote for the Maori party in defence of MMP,”

    So MMP has distorted voter behaviour in another way then…?

    Comment by StephenR — October 29, 2008 @ 10:16 am

  3. Read the second clause too, Stephen.

    Comment by Deborah — October 29, 2008 @ 10:19 am

  4. there’s no point in voting for the maori party, because with the overhang your vote is essentially wasted (they’ll need far more than 5% to top a potential seven mps).

    giving it to another minor party would probably deliver better results for the party your favoured candidate belongs to.

    Comment by Che Tibby — October 29, 2008 @ 10:29 am

  5. Fair enough Deborah – I really don’t like the first though. But that’s just me.

    Comment by StephenR — October 29, 2008 @ 10:42 am


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