This is amusing; (via DPF) NBR editor Nevil Gibson congratulates himself on being the only journo in New Zealand to accurately predict the election result:
We have to say it because no one else will: Almost alone among mainstream media, the National Business Review’s call on the election result turned out to be the best one.
Our summary: “National will easily win a mandate while the Greens become a stronger force on the left. Maori will not hold a balance of power and Winston Peters will be history.”
With awesome predictability Gibson decides that the reason he was right and absolutely everyone else was wrong is because the rest of the media is so hopelessly liberal:
National truly reflects the heartland, yet the media are continuing down their path of denial by giving more coverage, in newspapers and on radio, to the Labour leadership issue rather than accept the broad mandate for a new broom government is much more newsworthy.
There are a few problems with his basic premise though – here’s New Zealand Herald political commentator John Armstong in his pre-election forecast ‘National on verge of historic victory‘ (oh these shortsighted liberal journalists!):
it now looks increasingly like a National-Act-United Future coalition will be able to secure a majority.
Key had looked like needing the Maori Party on board. Increasingly, it seems he won’t.
And here’s Christchurch Press political editor Colin Espiner on his pre-election Labour cheerleading ‘All signs point to a National victory on Saturday‘:
[To win] Labour would have to poll higher than any poll currently suggests. National would have to poll correspondingly lower. The Greens would have to hold their current unprecedented high polling level and translate it into actual votes in the ballot box – something they have not managed before. The Maori Party would need to win at least five of the Maori seats but poll badly on the party vote, so as to increase Parliament’s “overhang” and make it more difficult for National to find a majority.
And finally, Winston Peters and New Zealand First would need to make it back into Parliament.
All those things are possible. But they are not probable.
Here’s Peter Wilson, the political editor of NZPA (not online):
National and ACT [will] win comfortably. Whatever they get, they can add Peter Dunne to the total because he is expected to retain his Ohariu seat and has committed himself to National.
The question then becomes the extent of National’s lead.
If the National/ACT/Peter Dunne combination have a majority, it’s all over.
The Maori Party would be irrelevant, regardless of how many seats it wins.
You get the picture. The reality is that almost every pundit in the country predicted the outcome of the election, in this context it looks like the only person in a state of denial is Gibson; he should try reading what his fellow-journalists actually write instead of simply guessing and then writing outraged columns railing against his overwrought fantasies.