The country’s state-owned weather and atmospheric research body is being taken to court in a challenge over the accuracy of its data used to calculate global warming.
The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition said it had lodged papers with the High Court asking the court to invalidate the official temperatures record of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa).
The lobby of climate sceptics and Act Party have long criticised Niwa over its temperature data, which Niwa says is mainstream science and not controversial, and the raw data publicly available.
Niwa challenged over accuracy of data, New Zealand Herald. Monday 16th August 2010.
A large number of speakers at the conference were practical workers who sang the praises of Lysenko’s methods. The geneticists did not galvanise such ‘men of the people’ to defend their views. One speaker banged the point home: “Just try, if you can, to swing this tractor driver round to the position of bourgeois agrochemistry! No, he has already put his weighty tractor drivers hand into the scales of the old scientific controversy . . . and his word is decisive.” This was offered as a stronger argument than anything geneticists could come up with in the lab.
Another means of showing that the geneticists were pseudoscientific according to Soviet standards was to show the ‘unscientific’ tactics the geneticists used in defense of their work. The Lysenkoists accused them of monopolising biological research establishments, scientific publications and biology teaching, as well as refusing to engage in discussion, preventing the exploration of Michurin’s theory and arrogantly dismissing views that were not comparable with their own. When they recognised that perhaps they too were now intimidating their scientific opponents they absolved themselves of wrongdoing by claiming they did it with scientific truth on their side.Ethan Pollack, Stalin and the Soviet Science Wars. Princeton University Press. 2006.
August 16, 2010
Inherit my wind
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Be thankful they don’t have the pull of Lysenko.
I’m not overly familiar with the Climate Science Coalition; are there many actual scientists among them? (There rarely are, with this sort of group; typically there’s one or two at most with experience in the actual field, and a whole bunch of engineers.) I think Geoff Austin (Fellow of the Royal Society NZ, who works in the atmospheric research group at Auckland University) might be a member, but I’m not sure.
Comment by derp de derp — August 16, 2010 @ 1:49 pm
Google
Comment by J Mex — August 16, 2010 @ 2:37 pm
From the above book quoted by Danyl:
“Stalin did not venture into scientific laboratories, conduct specific experiments, or solve equations. Yet he insisted that science was intertwined with the foundations of socialism and with the Party’s raison d’eˆtre. Thousands of newly accessible and previously unexplored documents from Communist Party, Russian State, and Academy of Sciences archives reveal that he was determined—at times even desperate—to show the scientific basis of Soviet Marxism. As both an editor and an author, Stalin actively engaged with the content of scholarly work and contemplated its overall implications for Marxism-Leninism.”
And:
“Like Engels and Lenin before him, Stalin understood Marxism as a science inextricably tied to the methodology and laws of the natural sciences. Marxism-Leninism claimed to provide a “science of society” that would help to create a “kingdom of freedom” on earth. The Party’s political authority relied on the perceived rationality and scientific basis of its actions. If Marxism-Leninism was scientific, and science would flourish if it was based on Marxist principles, it followed that science and Soviet Marxism should mutually reinforce each other. They led to the same discoveries about the nature of things and, together, progressed steadily to absolute truths.”
It looks like todays current toxic mix of climate science and political ideology has a famous practitioner from the recent past.
JC
Comment by JC — August 16, 2010 @ 5:45 pm
Google, indeed.
http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogsection&id=12&Itemid=45
Comment by Clunking Fist — August 16, 2010 @ 5:55 pm
“It looks like todays (sic) current toxic mix of climate science and political ideology has a famous practitioner from the recent past.”
Really, how so? And further; what “toxic mix of climate science and political ideology?”
Are you talking about Monckton’s mob?
Comment by Guy Smiley — August 16, 2010 @ 6:21 pm
The part that makes my brain hurt is that the Climate Science Coalition is claiming that for the last decade or two it’s been *warmer* than NIWA has reported (graph linked in name). Maybe the guy who reads NIWA’s thermometers is a dwarf who doesn’t know about parallax error.
Comment by bradluen — August 16, 2010 @ 6:51 pm
the war against genetics still continues in Academia although it’s been losing ground slowly. Dawkins, Pinker etc faced a left-wing campaign against them and their ideas that shut down a lot of potential work in universities on genes and behaviour.
Even now my wife gets treated like a crazy person if she suggests that learning how the brain works by looking at modern science might help in our understanding film slighly more than blindly accepting the interesting but completely devoid of reality ravings of Lacan.
Comment by NeilM — August 16, 2010 @ 7:30 pm
our understanding of film
Comment by NeilM — August 16, 2010 @ 7:30 pm
Dawkins, Pinker etc faced a left-wing campaign against them and their ideas
I thought the lefties were part of the godless hordes, without morals and choir boy bothering. Please expand on the ‘Left wing campaign’ bit? I would have though that Marx and Dwarkins would have felt happy together in atheism?
Comment by andy (the other one) — August 16, 2010 @ 7:39 pm
Two of the major foes were Stephen Jay Gould and Richard Lewontin who were both Marxists although it’s probably on the whole more accurate to say “liberal-left academics”.
Comment by NeilM — August 16, 2010 @ 7:48 pm
but yes, the religious opponents got most of the public and media attention while the liberal academics did most of the real damage to education in universities.
Comment by NeilM — August 16, 2010 @ 7:51 pm
How the hell can law courts decide the validity of scientists fiddling raw data?
Surely, suitably qualified, scientists should be able to debate the issue(s).
Sound science always involves vigorous and robust debate.
In an ideal world “adjustments” to data occur for patent technical reasons.
Why this coalition is bringing this action is unimaginable.
NIWA is part of a plot to subvert the activities of ACT supporters? Yeah right.
Personally I am somewhat of a sceptic about the scaremongering going on about climate change.
Our climate has never been static.
The forces that drive the changes are little understood.
Undoubtedly human activity has contributed to it (probably in contradictory directions).
The coalition only adds to the confusion.
Who in their right mind trust ACT to understand anything other than a balance sheet? (Even that is doubtful).
There is a definite air of Gilbert and Sullivan about this action.
Comment by peterlepaysan — August 16, 2010 @ 8:14 pm
Yeah OK.
For the youngsters you can replace “Gilbert and Sullivan” with “Fawlty Towers”.
Comment by peterlepaysan — August 16, 2010 @ 8:19 pm
Wash your denying mouth out with home made soap on rough hessian Peter.
Comment by expatexpat — August 16, 2010 @ 8:40 pm
The amazing thing is the list of supposedly mighty thinkers who have joined the coalition.
NZ’s signing up to Kyoto was rather classic – no effective action until we got very close to having to meet our treaty obligation, and the action that has been taken is about enough to fund the obligation. It’s not enough to make much difference, except possibly killing off coal powered electricity generation
Comment by Wilton — August 16, 2010 @ 9:14 pm
Doesn’t climate science have diplomatic immunity, just like the Vatican?
Comment by Vibenna — August 16, 2010 @ 10:53 pm
Actually, having read the statement of claim, I think there are some problems with it:
(a) They accuse NIWA of various forms of bias without producing evidence to that effect that I could see.
(b) They criticize the appointment of Salinger to oversee the data saying that his research presents a conflict of interest. Yet the contrary point of view, that his research makes him most qualified to oversee the data is not canvassed.
(c) They claim that the higher warming rate in New Zealand is weird, without considering that warming rates at different locations will be distributed around the global mean. So some areas are bound to be higher, just as some are bound to be lower. It is quite plausible that New Zealand is one of the warmer areas.
(d) They say current methods are not good, but do not offer any replacement . So what remedy can the court possibly order? Surely they can’t mandate that NIWA make a hypothetical scientific discovery? Or if they can, why waste it on temperature adjustments when they could instruct them to discover trans-warp drive and time travel instead?
Given all that, it’s hard to see how the claim could get up. Mind you, it was a quick read, so perhaps I’ve missed something vital.
Comment by Vibenna — August 17, 2010 @ 2:01 am
The arguments are something like:
– You don’t need to make temperature adjustments just because your measuring station moved to a different location, presumably because elevation, for example, has no effect on temperature.
– The temperature adjustments give a warming estimate that’s far above the global mean, which is implausible. Therefore we should not make adjustments, which gives a warming estimate that’s far below the global mean, which is totally plausible.
– Though Jim Salinger has published peer-reviewed work on temperature adjustments, his PhD thesis, which the adjustments come from, was not peer-reviewed. We don’t actually have any peer-reviewed science saying the adjustments are wrong, but here’s a paper from 1980 and some blog posts from an Australian magazine known for publishing fraudulent claims.
– NIWA cannot be operating in good faith, because we say they’re not and there’s no way that we’re operating in bad faith.
Comment by bradluen — August 17, 2010 @ 4:19 am
[...] *See also: Hot Topic’s When asses go to law. Good background. Also NIWA v Cranks: Update one Court challenge to Niwa ‘stupid’ Niwa challenged over accuracy of data – NZ Herald Report Tumeke’s Shame on NZ Herald climate denier spin Code for Life’s Opinion: Wanting to “resolve” (climate) science with legal games… The Standard’s Attacking NIWA No Right Turn’s Climate change: PR, not science Dim-Post’s Inherit my wind [...]
Pingback by A desperate plea to be noticed? | Open Parachute — August 17, 2010 @ 5:03 am
“Doesn’t climate science have diplomatic immunity, just like the Vatican?”
yes.
it’s not really preventing any perverse outcomes the way it’s supposed to.
Comment by che tibby — August 17, 2010 @ 7:58 am
@vibenna “Mind you, it was a quick read, so perhaps I’ve missed something vital”
nah, i think you hit the nail on the head with “his research makes him most qualified to oversee the data is not canvassed.”
these idiots have started from the position that the science is politically motivated, and worked backwards from there. this means that all and any action by any scientist is automatically identified as untrustworthy – unless they can be interpeted as agreeing with the deniers.
it’s like a box light dumped into a cavern of stupid. suddenly we all get to see it.
Comment by che tibby — August 17, 2010 @ 8:02 am
So where is all the warming? We were promised 2-6 degrees by now. We should be waterskiing at the Arctic as they promised it would be ice free by 2008!
Oh dear, dont tell me that CO2 doesnt create positive feedback and amplification.
Its all over then.
Brad,
Sure they made adjustments but why and how did they pick the amount to adjust it by? I mean if they put up a record by .03, then wheres the mathematical foundation to pick .03?
Thats what NIWA wont disclose.
But hey they are a publically funded body, how dare anyone challenge them to justify what they do and spend our money on. How dare any one ask for further information.
Comment by David — August 17, 2010 @ 8:06 am
“We were promised 2-6 degrees by now. ”
By who? Not the IPCC. Please provide a source.
Comment by Doug — August 17, 2010 @ 8:16 am
David: You’re right, they are a publicly funded body, and the OIA covers this stuff. Perhaps their methodology is completely transparent and the CSC are just a bunch of fucking nutters, hence the excerpt at the start of this thread.
“This science does not conform to our world view. It should, therefore we will protest loudly until it does.”
how dare anyone challenge them to justify what they do and spend our money on.
How dare anyone force them to spend millions of dollars of our money defending a frivolous court case?
Comment by Simon Poole — August 17, 2010 @ 8:20 am
“So where is all the warming? We were promised 2-6 degrees by now. We should be waterskiing at the Arctic as they promised it would be ice free by 2008!
Oh dear, dont tell me that CO2 doesnt create positive feedback and amplification.
Its all over then.”
It almost seems like you’re just making stuff up and attributing to unspecified researchers. Funny that.
Regarding Arctic ice though: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n5/abs/ngeo467.html.
“But hey they are a publically funded body, how dare anyone challenge them to justify what they do and spend our money on. How dare any one ask for further information.”
Hahahaha.
Yes David, that is exactly why the NZCSC has been hounding NIWA. They’ve simply no ulterior motives at all!
Comment by The PC Avenger — August 17, 2010 @ 8:22 am
FWIW, taking a quick look at NIWA’s data:
– The mid-19th century is sparse and noisy; I wouldn’t put too much stock in it.
– The one thing that sticks out as questionable is a relative peak (about half a degree higher than I’d project if the data were missing) for Dunedin 1940-1942, coinciding with an upward adjustment of +1.3 degrees. It’s possible but an explanation would be nice. Otherwise, some of the temperatures are a bit lower than you’d project (Auckland 1868-1950) and some are a bit higher (Wellington prior to 1927), but I’d be happy accepting natural variation as an explanation for those.
Tentative conclusions:
– If NIWA are doctoring the data, at least they’re being subtle about it,
– The adjustments could quite possibly be improved, but in half an hour of exploration I didn’t see any systematic error.
Comment by bradluen — August 17, 2010 @ 9:30 am
The PC Avenger
Check out the latest on Arctic sea ice. Do try to keep up. I look forward to your next link stating the world will end in 3020.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/15/sea-ice-news-18/
Comment by David — August 17, 2010 @ 10:28 am
Y’know, on twitter yesterday I thought someone would call mainstream science stalinist on this thread at some point. Anyway…
By who? Not the IPCC. Please provide a source.
Well, there was a memo to Nixon about the greenhouse effect that someone dug out recently, maybe that’s it. We’ve done a bit of work since then.
Comment by lyndon — August 17, 2010 @ 10:39 am
David, on arctic sea ice, I prefer to examine the last 30 years of data. That shows a strong declining trend.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
Comment by Vibenna — August 17, 2010 @ 10:46 am
And by “the latest” you mean a blog posting filled with thinly veiled resentment of researchers? Do try harder.
Comment by The PC Avenger — August 17, 2010 @ 10:55 am
“[Salinger's] PhD thesis, which the adjustments come from, was not peer-reviewed.”
Heh. That’s technically true. It wasn’t reviewed by his peers, it was reviewed by his _superiors_.
Comment by Repton — August 17, 2010 @ 12:13 pm