Tim Selwyn ponders the election date and concludes that the Rugby World Cup and South Pacific Forum will force the government into an early election and he looks at various pretexts they might invoke to call one. I think the election will be held shortly after the RWC, my reasoning being:
- The RWC will provide immediate economic benefits to the country, possibly it will be the only economic ray of light in the government’s entire term
- It will suck up any oxygen for the opposition’s pre-campaign campaigning
- If we win there will be national elation which will surely favor the government, but if we lose then I really don’t think people will punish the government by voting for the Labour Party – the only way that would happen is if the RWC is a logistical disaster that embarrasses the country.
- Key will want to maximise the amount of time he has with his current governing arrangement in which he gets to play ACT and the MP off against each other. His post-election governing arrangement is highly uncertain: he could have enough seats to govern alone, but he could also have a Maori Party-United Future-New Zealand First coalition.
- The whole year will (basically) be an election year and the National Party can easily outspend Labour over time, so the later the election is held the greater the advantage to the government.
My guess is that the election will be held on the 19th or 26th of November 2011.
You forgot to mention the fact Key plans to incite masses of industrial action during the world cup, causing mass embarrassment for New Zealand, all caused by those communist loving unions who secretly control the Labour party. A vote for Labour will be a vote for evilness… who said conspiracy theories were dead!
Comment by Justin — October 26, 2010 @ 8:13 am
I imagine the date is going to depend on polling during August and September. With the RWC set to finish late in October, a large lead for a National-led government makes early November the ideal time. There effectively wouldn’t be a campaign, as far as much of the public were concerned.
A narrow polling lead, on the other hand, requires the government to take some time basking in the reflected glow of a (hopefully) successful tournament.
Comment by Phil — October 26, 2010 @ 8:59 am
will the first Hobbit movie be ready by next Nov? Surely the next step in the Key/Warners/Jackson conspiracy.
Comment by NeilM — October 26, 2010 @ 9:03 am
Other conspiracy theories:
Key wants to increase the chance of supplementary member being adopted, which will require a long campaign by someone to get the public thinking about it. Because if they aren’t, then MMP opponents will probably pick first-past-the-post (they may anyway) which is less likely to win in a straight run-off.
But more seriously: I agree. Trevor Mallard’s “the Government won’t be able to campaign during the RWC” argument doesn’t really make sense: it’s the opposition that will need to campaign (scaring us with tales of privatisation, etc.) and them whom the RWC will hinder.
Comment by Graeme Edgeler — October 26, 2010 @ 9:18 am
When we lose the RWC people will not so much vote against the government as not vote at all, which will slam Labour.
Comment by Roger Parkinson — October 26, 2010 @ 2:57 pm
the unions look intent on keeping their fires of self-martyrdom stoked so Key should enjoy a warm glow for a while.
All Mallard can come up with is another lie.
I bet Key can’t believe his luck.
Comment by NeilM — October 26, 2010 @ 3:17 pm
When we lose the RWC people will not so much vote against the government as not vote at all, which will slam Labour.
High turnouts tends to favour the incumbent.
Comment by Graeme Edgeler — October 26, 2010 @ 4:29 pm
Bugger the “psychology” of RWC wins or losses. That is media crapola, promoted by sports journos who
think that what they blather on about actually matters.
The timing will be decided by advertising costs, opportunities for photo ops, and sound bites.
To the extent that that RWC impacts on those factors will have a significant impact on election date.
National is almost certain to have a significantly larger campaign war chest than any other party.
National is really in the driving seat on this one.
National will be campaigning on the “success” of the WRC. Especially the “party central” nonsense that Key has been promoting for a very long time.
Electioneering has already started. Just look at the front page of the Dompost today.
Quite what existing restaurant, bar, cafeteria owners in Auckland who are closer to Eden Park, motels think about this uncertain.
Yeah, it has to be post RWC.
Comment by peterlepaysan — October 26, 2010 @ 8:28 pm
Also, incumbent governments have a 100% record of re-election after RWCs held in NZ.
People think Labour won in ’87 because of the “you’ve had the pain, now it’s time for the gain” meme. Nah – Kirk lifts the Cup, NZ feels happy and orders more Champaign, Lange calls election, NZLP in for a second term.
Comment by Conor Roberts — October 26, 2010 @ 11:08 pm
Also, incumbent governments have a 100% record of re-election after RWCs held in NZ
Rule #1 of forecasting – trend is your friend.
On a broader scale, it would be interesting to see if there’s an internationally quantifiable change in government popularity after a major sporting event. If the incumbent government improves polling after an Olympic/Commonwealth/Football/Cricket world cup, then we’re on to something.
You could probably get some indicative results using Senate and Congress results and local MLB/NFL/NBA success, too.
Comment by Phil — October 27, 2010 @ 9:46 am
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/25/1007420107.abstract
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2010/07/06/sports-results-can-affect-election-results/
“In the US, if a local college football team wins a match in the ten days before a Senate, gubernatiorial or even presidential election, the incumbent candidate tends to get a slightly higher proportion of the vote. This advantage is particularly potent if the team has a strong fan-base and if they were the underdogs.”
I love the internet.
Comment by Helenalex — October 27, 2010 @ 11:49 am
The 2011 election will be in July/August, before the world cup, so it doesnt effect the election, and will be in good stead to push through some far right reforms in before Christmas, under cover of the World Cup.
Dont forget there are things like the changes to state housing, the Welfare Working Group and the ACC stocktake, sitting in the shadows that the goverment is waiting for the mandate of a second term to get on with. Also, while we were busy crying about our ‘precious’ film, Bill English hinted at mass state sector reforms around the corner.
This government wants to get a second term as soon as possible, so it can essentially pick up where Roger and Ruth left off.
Comment by millsy — October 29, 2010 @ 11:00 am
Congratulations!
Comment by Sam F — February 2, 2011 @ 2:18 pm
Would it be unkind to point and laugh at Millsy?
Comment by Craig Ranapia — February 2, 2011 @ 3:12 pm