The Dim-Post

April 26, 2011

I’m not a fancy big city political strategist, but . . .

Filed under: Politics — danylmc @ 3:48 pm

Surely the smart thing for Brash to do would have been to join ACT in exchange for a high place on their list and then, after an appropriate period of plotting and conspiracy, bring Hide down from within?

Whether it succeeds or not this looks like the worst planned coup since – well, Chris Carter’s, I guess, which was only like, ten months ago.

Sigh.

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62 Comments »

  1. Sums up Brash – politcal instinct of a lemon.

    Comment by taranaki — April 26, 2011 @ 3:50 pm

  2. No one is going to put any energy into beating up Labour/Goff with all this fun out on the right.
    If Winston gets air time he will enjoy milking it. Maoris are splitting too. Game on?

    Comment by Michael — April 26, 2011 @ 4:03 pm

  3. Don Brash isn’t a politician. Not for him the dirty business of politics. He is the anointed high priest of technocracy and guardian of the bright, sacred flame of the neo-liberal religion.

    And in return for his carrying this weighty and tiresome burden, all he asks is he be elevated to the status of the exalted. Whence there he can then better dispense the radiant glory of his economic certitude upon the ungrateful masses, who will surely eventually rejoice once they come to fully understand the revelation of his light.

    Comment by Sanctuary — April 26, 2011 @ 4:06 pm

  4. Maybe it was more about the publicity and hype.

    Comment by Dean — April 26, 2011 @ 4:21 pm

  5. Perhaps this was planned for February to get traction for a possible new party at the start of the year, but the earthquake and Darren Hughes got in the way?
    But that only proves the point that it is probably better to do a bit of graft inside a party and look like there is some kind of organised succession going on.
    Despite often being derided by this crowd as a bunch of fruitloops, the Greens have done a more composed job, as a minor party, of managing to maintain their share of the vote and doing transition/succession.

    Comment by Michael — April 26, 2011 @ 4:32 pm

  6. From Roger Douglas’s Facebook:

    “Heather Roy is hosting a pub meeting for Aucklanders from 5.30 – 7.00pm tonight at Danny Doolans bar, 204 Quay Street, Viaduct Basin. All are welcome.”

    That could be popular.

    Comment by Russell Brown — April 26, 2011 @ 4:32 pm

  7. “He is the anointed high priest of technocracy and guardian of the bright, sacred flame of the neo-liberal religion.”

    He didn’t look like that last week when I saw him fill a lonely trolley at Countdown. In fact he looked like a confused and slightly melancholy old man, hair astray and trousers held up by a frayed belt. Watching him mooch despairingly through the aisles, vaguely panicked looking, it was hard to imagine he was once a gnat’s ballhair away form leading the country.

    Comment by Bearhunter — April 26, 2011 @ 4:36 pm

  8. @ Russell Brown – is she buying?

    Comment by Bearhunter — April 26, 2011 @ 4:37 pm

  9. “Surely the smart thing for Brash to do would have been to join ACT in exchange for a high place on their list”

    The risk here would have been that ACT might have been toast at the election.

    I’d assume that Brash thought it would be a formality to get the votes of the ACT caucus. The man believes in rational actors, after all. What rational reason is there for Boscawen and Calvert to stand by Hide? (Serious question.)

    Comment by bradluen — April 26, 2011 @ 4:43 pm

  10. The supermarket habits of politicians are very insightful Bearhunter.

    I once saw Michael Cullen bite the head off a small child and then perform a sex act on a small rotisserie chicken at Thorndon New World.

    Comment by Michel Djerzinski — April 26, 2011 @ 4:55 pm

  11. I always knew there was something fowl about that Cullen chap.

    Comment by abel the amish — April 26, 2011 @ 5:05 pm

  12. Here’s today’s Dim-Post brain-teaser …

    You’re in charge of 2011 election debates at a TV channel. You’ve got the usual head-to-head between PM and Opposition leader, no problem there.

    But which other leaders get an invite? Who actually has a strong case?

    I got the Greens. And … the Greens. The two co-leaders could debate with each other, I suppose.

    But who else? Brash in, Winston out? Dunne in, Harawira out? And why?

    Comment by sammy — April 26, 2011 @ 5:07 pm

  13. A second tier multi faceted death match for the also rans Goff v Harawira, Winston v Hide, Brash v Dunne.

    And in the tier one debate we have Norman v Key.

    Comment by abel the amish — April 26, 2011 @ 5:12 pm

  14. “Heather Roy is hosting a pub meeting for Aucklanders”

    A knees-up. Will anyone be choppering in?

    Comment by joe Wylie — April 26, 2011 @ 5:14 pm

  15. Association of Consumers and Taxpayers?? Fuck off, we’re the Consumers Association of Taxpayers!!

    Comment by max — April 26, 2011 @ 5:19 pm

  16. I wonder how many people would watch a leadership debate between Metiria and Russel?

    Comment by Kahikatea — April 26, 2011 @ 5:29 pm

  17. “Whether it succeeds or not this looks like the worst planned coup since”

    It isn’t a coup, its an ultimatum. Brash has said he’s going to be leading a party at the election, and ACT can be it, or he forms a new one. If Brash becomes leader of ACT the party would probably do better than with Hide. If Brash forms a new party he will certainly collapse ACT’s vote.

    Down amongst the dead men, Brash’s lack of political nous is of minor importance. There’s an unknown amount of raw support for the man and his ideas.. he’s betting its more than Hide and ACT can come up with.. and he’s likely right.

    JC

    Comment by JC — April 26, 2011 @ 5:59 pm

  18. Blimey, I mention it here, it appears on Kiwiblog a few minutes later. You’re being stalked, Danyl.

    (at least, it would be on here first, if our host wasn’t still on daylight saving time … )

    Comment by sammy — April 26, 2011 @ 6:02 pm

  19. As Sanctuary said, I don’t really think people like Brash have much time for the whole ‘democracy’ hoo-hah, they see it as a bit of a waste of time & distraction from the real business of implementing their ‘laws’ of economics, which they see as infallible as the laws of say, gravity.

    e.g The poll political genius Don Brash commissioned to show the Act Party board how great he’d be for their electoral performance isn’t going to come out until AFTER his meeting with them, Douglas etc didn’t care whether they were in the Labour Party or any other, they just wanted to use whatever vehicle was available to push through their reforms, on & on..

    Comment by Jono — April 26, 2011 @ 6:10 pm

  20. A Heather Roy booze-up tonight.

    Where the food will arrive on dishes, served cold

    Comment by Leg Break — April 26, 2011 @ 6:26 pm

  21. It makes a nice refreshing change to look your enemy in the eye and shoot him in the chest. Beats shagging around with plotting and intrigue.

    Comment by David — April 26, 2011 @ 6:48 pm

  22. Hide’s mistake was talking to Brash and offering him the Deputy Leadership and possibly Epsom. Once he did that Brash knew ACT was desperate to stay alive and upped the ante demanding the leaders’ spot.

    Basically; “if I’m the one that will save your party then I will be the one to lead it”.

    Comment by randominanity — April 26, 2011 @ 7:50 pm

  23. I don’t think it’s badly planned at all. Brash has the money and almost has the numbers and is now signalling the market to rally behind him (which they have). I think it’s best to think of this more as a hostile takeover than a political coup if you want to understand the mindset of the players and get a grasp of what’s in play.

    Comment by IrishBill — April 26, 2011 @ 8:06 pm

  24. “Association of Consumers and Taxpayers?? Fuck off, we’re the Consumers Association of Taxpayers!”
    Consumers United, Not Taxpayers

    Comment by Sacha — April 26, 2011 @ 9:59 pm

  25. “Don Brash isn’t a politician. Not for him the dirty business of politics. He is the anointed high priest of technocracy and guardian of the bright, sacred flame of the neo-liberal religion.”

    Sanctuary you are probably closer to the truth of his self image than you realise.
    Not sure about the high priest bit, Brash is more of the understanding Methodist, who knows best.

    Us benighted sinners merely have to to do as he says the third world economic heaven will open before our
    very eyes. We can rejoice in joining with the societies Sri Lanka, Solomon Islands, Bangladesh as part ofthe great global village.

    Certainly the Kerr, Gibbs, Boag, Banks et al network will be watching closely. Brash is a great puppet.

    This could shape up to be an interesting election.

    It will be interesting to see how much Teflon JK still has after the Budget.

    The sham of the “tax cuts” and “catching up with Oz” are showing already.

    Post Budget things are going to turn nasty in the lead up to the election.

    These are interesting times we live in.

    Come on Bill, bring it on, I can’t wait.

    Comment by peterlepaysan — April 26, 2011 @ 11:09 pm

  26. Post Budget things are going to turn nasty in the lead up to the election.

    Much sooner than that if you look at Hooten’s comment in the dpf thread that is very similar to sammy’s comment @12.

    No wonder the righties tend toward the law and order polices; as soon as someone looks at someone a bit funny their first instinct is start belting each other with meat hooks.

    Comment by Pascal's bookie — April 26, 2011 @ 11:23 pm

  27. It is probable that the Brash entry is just what Key wants. Throw away Hide as he did what Key wanted but is now expendable. So let Brash lead the way into the right wing pressure instead of Act, but they too are expendable, after they take the blame for right projects.

    Comment by Ianmac — April 27, 2011 @ 12:41 am

  28. Sums up Brash – politcal instinct of a lemon.

    Lemons can be dangerous – just ask Cave Johnson!

    Comment by flynn_the_cat — April 27, 2011 @ 1:07 am

  29. Cave just proves that we need lemons from time to time. Brash driving a Pinto?

    Comment by Clunking Fist — April 27, 2011 @ 8:38 am

  30. “I don’t care where, as long as I’m Mayor Leader.”

    Comment by Ataahua — April 27, 2011 @ 9:58 am

  31. as soon as someone looks at someone a bit funny their first instinct is start belting each other with meat hooks.

    You’re confusing “Right-of-centre-politician” with “Patched-gang-member”

    Comment by Phil — April 27, 2011 @ 10:04 am

  32. You’re confusing “Right-of-centre-politician” with “Patched-gang-member”

    Quite possibly.

    Comment by Pascal's bookie — April 27, 2011 @ 10:17 am

  33. Seems clear now that Brash doesn’t have the numbers at the moment. So how does he plan to win over ACT’s holdouts? Market research!

    “The market research I have commissioned won’t be available till early next week, and if it shows there is a material difference in support for Act, depending on who is the leader, I would expect all caucus members to take that into account.”

    Have to wonder who’s paying for the research. No one would be surprised if there’s a rich-lister or two bankrolling him.

    Comment by bradluen — April 27, 2011 @ 10:19 am

  34. No one would be surprised if there’s a rich-lister or two bankrolling him.

    He did mention financial backing as one of his qualifications for becoming party leader. Which is not the first party he’s approached in this manner.

    Comment by lyndon — April 27, 2011 @ 10:29 am

  35. DPF has an excellent analysis over at http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/04/ends_and_means.html
    but he effectively says the same as you, but in a lot more words and analysis.

    Comment by David in Chch — April 27, 2011 @ 10:34 am

  36. JC: “Brash has said he’s going to be leading a party at the election, and ACT can be it, or he forms a new one. ”
    The only group that comes to mind is the Reform Party, and so far they haven’t made much of a splash yet.

    Comment by DeepRed — April 27, 2011 @ 11:03 am

  37. Although if Brash does form his own party, it’ll be an Association of Consumers & Taxpayers Consumers & Taxpayers Association Consumers United, Not Taxpayers Reform Party NA Bankers’ Popular Front job all right.

    Comment by DeepRed — April 27, 2011 @ 11:11 am

  38. Maybe this is all just a really deep plot by National to ensure ructions in their possible coalition partners right up until the day of the election so that nobody ever scrutinizes their policies on the economy, transport etc etc…

    Comment by LucyJH — April 27, 2011 @ 11:13 am

  39. Although if Brash does form his own party, it’ll be an Association of Consumers & Taxpayers Consumers & Taxpayers Association Consumers United, Not Taxpayers Reform Party NA Bankers’ Popular Front job all right

    Splitters!

    Comment by Shaun — April 27, 2011 @ 12:00 pm

  40. Maybe this is all just a really deep plot by National to ensure ructions in their possible coalition partners right up until the day of the election so that nobody ever scrutinizes their policies on the economy, transport etc etc…

    My thoughts exactly especially given the media’s preference to report on plots and personalities rather than policies. That said I also subscribe to the view of never ascribing to conspiracy anything which is more easily explained by incompetence. I also think Danyl’s on the mark about the influence of Brash’s Methodism.

    Comment by TerryB — April 27, 2011 @ 12:20 pm

  41. Suddenly it all makes sense. At one point during my postgrad years, I was associated with the residence where the non-resident future ministers of the United Church of Canada lived. The UCC is a strange amalgamation of the Congregationalists (minor component), the Methodists and the Presbyterians. There are still “independent” Methodists and “free” Presbyterians, but the majority went with the union.

    Those from the Methodist tradition were often teetotalling socialists who keep wanting to shut down the (very successful and popular) college pub, and the Presbyterians were often martini drinking card-carrying members of the Conservative Party of Canada. It was a VERY interesting mix.

    Don is a bit of an anomaly then, in that he is right-wing, but nonetheless he has that missionary zeal and self-assurance he is right even if no one else agrees with him.

    Comment by David in Chch — April 27, 2011 @ 12:28 pm

  42. If anything, this episode highlights what a near miss we all had in 2005 when Brash / National lost the election. It also reflects poorly on all those who voted for that configuration……as they appear to also have the political judgement – collectively – of lemons.

    Comment by Steve — April 27, 2011 @ 12:30 pm

  43. “[Hide] said the meeting initially took place at a Burger King”
    Glamorous political manoeuvring.
    Actually, I can think of nobody who would look more out of place at a Burger King than Don Brash.

    Comment by garethw — April 27, 2011 @ 12:51 pm

  44. It also reflects poorly on all those who voted for that configuration [Brash/Nationanal]…as they appear to also have the political judgement – collectively – of lemons.

    Meh. If you look across our whole political spectrum, you’ll find the correlation between coup-efficiency and political/policy-success is pretty much zero.

    Comment by Phil — April 27, 2011 @ 12:58 pm

  45. Actually, I can think of nobody who would look more out of place at a Burger King than Don Brash.

    Helen?

    Comment by Phil — April 27, 2011 @ 1:00 pm

  46. Helen?
    No way, she’d be a bit of a surprise but nowhere near as much as Brash.

    Comment by garethw — April 27, 2011 @ 1:28 pm

  47. “Actually, I can think of nobody who would look more out of place at a Burger King than Don Brash.”

    He looks out of place wherever he is. He’s the most awkward man in New Zealand. It’s amazing he manages to get so many women. Must be the money.

    Comment by Questioneer — April 27, 2011 @ 1:30 pm

  48. Love the Fran quote in today’s herald:

    There’s also been plenty of backchat suggesting Act’s financial backers are aware they may need to financially underwrite a new job for Hide if there is to be any chance at all of persuading him it’s time to make way for new leadership.

    Is this what they mean by flexibility in the labour market?

    Comment by Pascal's bookie — April 27, 2011 @ 1:37 pm

  49. “Actually, I can think of nobody who would look more out of place at a Burger King than Don Brash.”

    Jeanette?

    Comment by Kahikatea — April 27, 2011 @ 1:41 pm

  50. I can Jeanette going into a Burger King and starting to lecture, calmly but firmly, on the evils of factory farming…

    Comment by bradluen — April 27, 2011 @ 1:49 pm

  51. Person least likely to be seen at Burger King? Stephen Joyce. I bet he’s never had takeaways; far too immature.

    Comment by Leg Break — April 27, 2011 @ 1:53 pm

  52. DeepRed @37,

    Brash has done nearly all this through the media with his fuckoff message to ACT.. he’s awful confident and that suggests any new party will be staffed with ACT deserters.. who are currently being flushed out by the choices on offer. Its all got a Corleone Family feel about it.

    JC

    Comment by JC — April 27, 2011 @ 2:11 pm

  53. It is now crystal clear that Rodney Hide has the numbers in caucus, and Don Brash’s leadership bid has failed.

    It is now crystal clear that Don Brash has the numbers in caucus, and Rodney Hide will resign this afternoon.

    (above reports brought to you by all media today, simultaneously)

    Comment by sammy — April 27, 2011 @ 3:15 pm

  54. Don Brash has form for Burger King. From the 2005 election campaign:

    “He has just launched the health policy, and Don Brash is hungry for a hamburger. There’s a McDonald’s in the Centre City shopping mall, New Plymouth, where Brash has come to meet the voters, and he eyes the golden arches desirously across the food court.

    Nearly every day of this campaign, Brash’s cavalcade has rolled through a shopping mall, and the Opposition leader usually makes time for a Whopper or a Big Mac.

    Comment by Jordan — April 27, 2011 @ 3:18 pm

  55. (this thread awarded “thred of the month” by blogwatch zine)

    Comment by k.jones — April 27, 2011 @ 5:38 pm

  56. Mostly speculation loaded with prejudice and mostly wrong. It is easy to forget that Brash came within a Brethren of being PM. Brash will replace Hide because Rodney has passed his use by date; his fall from grace is irreversible; he has allowed his ego to cloud his judgement. Act is sinking. This is unnaceptable to Act’s backers (It is not immoral to have backers – all parties have financial backers wanting a piece of the policy making). Brash has economic credibility; a necessary attribute in a failing economy. Expect Hide to resign before the next week is out.

    Comment by Peter S — April 27, 2011 @ 6:30 pm

  57. Brash has what?? !!! lmao

    Comment by aj — April 27, 2011 @ 6:49 pm

  58. It is now crystal clear that Rodney Hide has the numbers in caucus, and Don Brash’s leadership bid has failed.

    It is now crystal clear that Don Brash has the numbers in caucus, and Rodney Hide will resign this afternoon

    This sort of thing is to be expected. The ACT party is now so small we should start to see things predicted by quantum politics.

    Comment by Pascal's bookie — April 27, 2011 @ 7:01 pm

  59. Whatever happens here, I think credit should be extended to the National Party membership for finally trying to capitalise on MMP rather than just complain about how fair and proportional it is. In this case by having one party to collect the party vote and another to collect the electorate overhang, with National members in charge of both.

    Shame about the implementation.

    Comment by MikeM — April 27, 2011 @ 7:34 pm

  60. New morning: Brash FTW, apparently. I’m not going to express certainty until it happens, Calvert might change her mind three or four times before then.

    Comment by bradluen — April 28, 2011 @ 8:25 am

  61. “Person least likely to be seen at Burger King? Stephen Joyce. I bet he’s never had takeaways; far too immature.”

    I’m pretty sure he’d use the drive-thru.

    Comment by RedJez — April 29, 2011 @ 8:41 am

  62. “I’m pretty sure he’d use the drive-thru.”

    I didn’t think trucks could fit in a drive-thru. Unless of course, he invoked Manifest Destiny on the surrounds.

    Comment by DeepRed — April 29, 2011 @ 9:46 pm


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