Two trends of note in the Fairfax poll. The first is that support for ACT is now so low that if the election were held tomorrow, former National Cabinet Minister John ‘I’m just there to support the National government’ Banks would be their only MP. Which is awesome.
Secondly, the Green Party continues to steal votes that rightfully belong to Labour. Fairfax has the Greens up to 11% and the Labour Party down to 25% (and recent statements by Labour MPs suggests to me that that Labour’s internal polls mirror these results).
We hear a lot about how the media and the voters aren’t focused on policy or issues, but the Green’s tactic of releasing good policy and talking about issues, and getting covered for those things in the media seems to be working out pretty well.
All parties have a ceiling of potential voters and I’m guessing the Green’s are bumping up against theirs right now. But election campaigns are an opportunity to raise that ceiling, and their co-leader Russel Norman is a more formidable campaigner than he was three years ago. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go even higher than their current polling – although the Greens always have trouble getting out the vote on election day.