The Dim-Post

October 19, 2012

Horse race watch

Filed under: polls — danylmc @ 8:10 am

Interactive version of the chart here.

If you’re Labour you really want to be able to go into coalition with New Zealand First and the Greens, and be able to pass legislation with either party. Current results would see them trying to pass budgets with the support of Greens, New Zealand First and Hone Harawira, which doesn’t seem very sustainable.

(Thanks to Peter Green for getting the tracking poll script working again. Some day I will learn R so I can fix these things myself.)

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19 Comments »

  1. How come the blue line always tracks at the bottom of the scatter of results, while the Labour one travels in the middle as you would expect?
    That said it does seem to line up on election day 2011

    Comment by rayinnz — October 19, 2012 @ 8:28 am

  2. What rayinnz asked. Are those dots all plotting high, or is that line reading a tad low? And what’s going on at the bottom? NZ First predictions seem a little optimistic eh.

    Comment by Nathaniel — October 19, 2012 @ 9:02 am

  3. I’d be amazed if NZF stayed so high over the entire term. They should scrape through to 5% again, but I can’t see them being big enough to get stuff through for Labour. The Green’s votes in Parliament will be incredibly important in the next term, we may even see National attempt to woo them.

    Comment by alex — October 19, 2012 @ 9:04 am

  4. We go through this every time I post this graph. The polls prior to the election overestimated National’s results and underestimated New Zealand First’s, so the script interprets this as error in the methodology and corrects for this.

    Comment by danylmc — October 19, 2012 @ 9:08 am

  5. Looks like the polls are assessed against actual results at the election. There has been a systematic polling bias towards National for a long time because of the demographics of their supporters and the polling techniques. The polls always overstate National’s support. They consistently don’t get the support that the polls indicate in the actual election.

    Similarly there has been a pretty systematic bias against NZ First for quite some time, and their poll results tend to be below the line and the election results.

    If you could look closer at the detail of the different polls, you’d also see systematic trends in polls from different polling companies. Especially with Labour and the Greens. Again this is due to variations in how they do polling.

    Nice to see this graph up again.

    Comment by lprent — October 19, 2012 @ 9:11 am

  6. “We go through this every time I post this graph.”
    Then perhaps next time you should write this in the body of the post, to allay the questions.

    Comment by Lanthanide — October 19, 2012 @ 9:38 am

  7. Danyl wrote :
    Current results would see them trying to pass budgets with the support of Greens, New Zealand First and Hone Harawira, which doesn’t seem very sustainable.

    However, Labour + Greens = 43.7% which is 2.4% higher than National (~55 seats vs 51). Add in NZ First and this goes to 50.9%. With wasted votes (invalid & below threshold) this would be a comfortable margin I’d thought (64 seats of 122 – cf National’s current 1 seat majority). Why add Hone Harawira into the mix ?

    Comment by Brent Jackson — October 19, 2012 @ 9:49 am

  8. Can we have a legend, please…. if only to identify the tiny greyish dots down below the 5% line, and the bigger dots below them.
    This graphic, with legend etc, looks like being a valuable macrotool.

    Comment by Doug McNeill — October 19, 2012 @ 9:51 am

  9. So…wouldn’t it all be clearer (and prevent folk like me complaining ad nuseum) if the dots were corrected for the error?

    Not that it matters, what I see is that the gap between right leading incompetence and lead-leaning incompetence is very, very narrow. Hooray!

    Comment by Nathaniel — October 19, 2012 @ 10:03 am

  10. They wouldn’t need Hone on those numbers, just Greens and NZF gets Labout to 50.9% which would be a big majority after wasted votes… still tricky but

    Comment by Deano — October 19, 2012 @ 10:06 am

  11. Current results would see them trying to pass budgets with the support of Greens, New Zealand First and Hone Harawira, which doesn’t seem very sustainable.

    it would be a quite different enviorment to when they were last in office. Ideally they would want to be able to take turns with the Greens and NZF for getting legislation through but relying on both would highlight the major differences between the three parties on economic management, the environment, immigtation etc.

    Although with Shearer going on about patriotism and the threat of foreign workers maybe some differences are just cosmetic.

    Comment by NeilM — October 19, 2012 @ 10:06 am

  12. NZ First is likely to pick up disaffected National Party votes. It’s what they have always relied on. People who don’t wan’t to vote for Labour or the Green, don’t like National or ACT and can’t remember that other fella’s name. The guy with the absurd pompadour hairdo. .

    Comment by Steve (@nza1) — October 19, 2012 @ 10:28 am

  13. “They wouldn’t need Hone on those numbers, just Greens and NZF gets Labout to 50.9% which would be a big majority after wasted votes… still tricky but”

    Is the Maori Party expected to win many of the Maori seats again at this point? I haven’t been paying attention. That and (cough) Peter Dunne could possibly make it trickier.

    Comment by izogi — October 19, 2012 @ 11:00 am

  14. @Doug: the interactive version has mouseovers for all the dots, but a legend for the static version is probably worthwhile.

    @Nathaniel: I’d rather not move the dots in the published version, but the code https://gist.github.com/2791866 does have the option to adjust them.

    @Lanthanide: that’s a good point. I’ll write something in English for Danyl to post with the graph next time.

    Comment by pete — October 19, 2012 @ 1:32 pm

  15. Those orange dots below the zero line…are they ACT?

    Comment by Ben Wilson — October 20, 2012 @ 6:21 pm

  16. @Ben: they’re “important events” (i.e. whatever’s supplied by Wikipedia). You can get details from the mouseover in the interactive version. (I like your answer better though.)

    Comment by pete — October 21, 2012 @ 2:09 pm

  17. I too am surprised/impressed by NZF’s steady polling above the 5% threshold. Still more than 2 years out from the next election the polls are a bit meaningless really.

    Comment by Conrad — October 23, 2012 @ 1:55 pm

  18. Be great if NZ First could surpass the Greens, especially at the next election. They’re the Party for all kiwis with sensible policies. Winston is a true leader and his experience is foremost. Comment by Julie – October 23, 2012

    Comment by Julie — October 23, 2012 @ 4:50 pm

  19. Yes, truly. That is why all the people of New Zealand love him so much.

    Comment by izogi — October 24, 2012 @ 9:03 am


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