The Dim-Post

June 21, 2013

Let’s cut to the chase

Filed under: polls — danylmc @ 1:08 pm

Here’s an updated poll chart (adjusting for poll bias.) Here’s what the chart looks like if you don’t adjust for poll bias (notice how the curve misses the actual election results?) Here’s Vincent Price on the Muppet Show singing ‘You Got a Friend.’

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13 Comments »

  1. NZ First is now starting to eat into National’s vote.

    Comment by George D — June 21, 2013 @ 1:17 pm

  2. The Labour/Green govt in waiting appears to have stalled somewhat, even as National slowly sinks. Neither party is really gaining any support, and hasn’t for some time.

    Comment by Alex Braae — June 21, 2013 @ 2:49 pm

  3. What are the orange dots below the horizontal axis?

    Comment by Ralph — June 21, 2013 @ 5:55 pm

  4. Those are Edward Tufte’s tears.

    Comment by Dave — June 21, 2013 @ 6:29 pm

  5. gotta love that coalition of losers. Btw whats today’s economic principle?

    Comment by Grant — June 21, 2013 @ 7:54 pm

  6. Today Grant we print money. Oh shit the NZDUSD has dropped from 0.86 to 0.77.

    Dunno Grant, back to monorails?

    Comment by toby — June 22, 2013 @ 9:28 am

  7. Doesn’t that assume that the poll bias is a constant, when it actually stems from underpolled demographics of voters, such as people with no landline phone?
    You don’t really know what those demographics are thinking, so they could change voting patterns substantially without being reflected in the polls.

    Comment by richdrich — June 23, 2013 @ 10:36 am

  8. We were talking about the sudden switchover to LCD/Plasma televisions from CRT the othernight, how it occurred in a period of five years (or less). The conversation then moved to telephones and the new Orcon offering that allows you to make local calls from your mobile. Everyone there no longer had a traditional telephone landline. We are talking a hairdresser, a self-employed businessman, a HR manager, an accountant, an event manager, two business analysts, two airline flight attendants, a photographer, a marketing manager and a yoga instructor.

    Just saying.

    Comment by Sanctuary — June 23, 2013 @ 11:17 am

  9. The “polls are inaccurate because they don’t take into account people without landlines” thing has been a meme since at least 2004. The thing is, the numbers of people without landlines are so huge that, if this demographic really was unrepresented, the polls would have become utterly discredited by now. I think the only conclusion is that the landline-less are politically identical to landline owners.

    PS: Sanc, I pity the poor marketing manager, HR manager and self-employed businessman who had to sit there while you denounced them as representatives of the hateful money-grubbing rentier class who are destroying NZ’s social fabric in pursuit of short-term profit.

    Comment by Hugh — June 23, 2013 @ 12:23 pm

  10. No landlines at all, or just at work Sancy, not that I’m accusing you of selective reporting…….

    Comment by petey — June 23, 2013 @ 3:30 pm

  11. Or they had VOIP, or had call forwarding to mobiles etc

    Comment by petey — June 23, 2013 @ 3:57 pm

  12. No landlines at home – we are talking six households.

    Comment by Sanctuary — June 23, 2013 @ 9:42 pm

  13. think the only conclusion is that the landline-less are politically identical to landline owners.

    This is half the answer – whether or not you have a landline is pretty low-down on the list of political-markers relative to big stuff like age, gender, income, education, race/ethnicity and so on. So, if you survey a via landline 23 y.o. unemployed Maori female who recently graduated with a university degree, odds are she’s going to have the same (or very similar) political outlook to another 23 y.o. unemployed Maori female who recently graduated with a university degree that doesn’t have a land line.

    Once you add in the pretty sophisticated weighting techniques used on the responses, you end up with a sample that looks like the wider population, regardless of whether or not they’re landline-less.

    Comment by Phil — June 24, 2013 @ 12:43 pm


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