30th June 2012. Click here for the interactive version.
You need to include actual election results to compare against the polls for a reality check.
Comment by Zeus — May 19, 2012 @ 4:20 pm
Would it help to have a separate chart for the minor parties? After all, there’s a good chance they will make an important difference come election day.
Comment by billbennettnz — May 19, 2012 @ 6:44 pm
This is pretty cool (haha man that’s geeky!); would love to see the data sets extending back through the 90s. Hoping for some very interesting trending.
Behavioural responses and dynamics of effect re scandal and issue would also would be interesting; did I vaguely recall our host illuminating on this previously..
Comment by Luke. — May 19, 2012 @ 7:19 pm
Can we call this “The Dim Poll” please?
Comment by pete — June 5, 2012 @ 3:49 pm
It is interesting how the trend lines for National (and NZF) behave consistently whether at their zenith or nadir, I thought earlier versions of the graph might have that behaviour because National have been so popular lately.
Perhaps some one has a more comprehensive list of significant political events (yellow dots on interactive graph) they could donate?
Comment by bka — June 12, 2012 @ 10:58 am
For instance, there is a big surge for National explainable in the graph by the Orewa speech, then it dips, then there is another unexplained surge in early 2005 – about the time of the Iwi-Kiwi billboards?
Comment by bka — June 12, 2012 @ 11:10 am
You have to be taking the piss on the drastic downturn at the end for National.
Comment by Graeme Edgeler — June 12, 2012 @ 9:20 pm
@Graeme: The steepness is exaggerated a bit by the compressed timescale. If I just plot one year’s worth of data the decline looks reasonable.
The whole point of doing this sort on analysis is not to read too much into a few polls. However, with that in mind, ONCB and 3NRR have both seen a four percentage point drop in National support over their last two polls.
So I think “drastic downturn” is probably a fair summary of National’s recent poll results.
Comment by pete — June 12, 2012 @ 10:15 pm
Tried posting this elsewhere but the post wasn’t there when I looked from my work computer, so thought I would post here to see if it appears.
This is a really interesting chart. A question though: What about when polling companies review and tweak their approaches in the period following the election? I imagine that most worthy pollsters do this, because after three years they finally have some benchmark data and they can test different theories about what produces the error for certain parties, and make little adjustments to try and correct for it. Case in point – I was slightly suprised to see how close the most recent TV1 and TV3 polls were (although they were a week or so apart so that may explain it).
There are only really four points (on the chart) that can be used to estimate the error for each poll, but aspects of their polling approach may change (possibly a few times) between each election. The error for some of the parties in some of the poll curves looks larger than the difference between those polls and the last Election Day result, so does this chart simply assume that all methodolgies stay the same all of the time?
Perhaps some assumptions about this at the bottom of the chart would be good (just prevents it from being a tad misleading, and detracting from how interesting that chart really is). Just my two cents.
Comment by Andy — June 13, 2012 @ 7:13 pm
Any chance of an update?
Comment by Stephen Doyle — December 17, 2012 @ 6:25 pm
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