The Dim-Post

August 23, 2016

Cause and effect

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 12:50 pm

Via Hive News:

But yesterday UMR released results of a poll that found 60% of Aucklanders and 55% of home owners would prefer that house prices either fell a bit or fell dramatically over the next year.

The poll of 1,000 New Zealanders over the age of 18 was taken from July 29 to August 17 through UMR’s online omnibus survey and found a total of 63% nationwide who would either prefer house prices to ‘fall but not too much’ (37%) or to fall dramatically (26%).

UMR, which conducts polls for the Labour, found 55% of home owners would prefer house prices to fall a bit (40%) or dramatically (15%).

Here’s my problem with all this talk about lowering house prices. If prices fall, either ‘a bit’ or dramatically then won’t we also see people borrow less and save more and spend less (because they’re effectively poorer), leading to a drop in aggregate demand, leading to a recession? Isn’t that how these things work?

August 17, 2016

Happy anniversary Murray!

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 9:04 am

It’s one year since the Auditor General began investigating Murray McCully’s decision to use taxpayer money to fund an agrihub in a palace in the Arabian desert. Rumour has it the delay releasing the report has been caused by McCully and MFAT lawyering up and litigating the entire report, line-by-line. On a recent RNZ politics segment Matthew Hooton suggested that this process will involve a negotiation with the Auditor General’s office to include an exculpating sentence in the executive summary that National can seize on as evidence that McCully has been ‘completely cleared’, regardless of the findings of the report, which seems to be how these things are done nowadays.

August 14, 2016

The old personal is political routine

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 11:57 am

The gallery are all writing about the Andrew Little/Stuart Nash/Nick Leggett/Phil Quin thing that happened this week. Tracy Watkins’ column is a representative sample:

  • What hasn’t been covered and which I’d be pretty curious to know about is: what actually happened with the Labour selection for the Wellington Mayoralty? There’s obviously incredibly bad blood over it, which has resulted in Leggett leaving his party and Labour declaring war on him. Labour doesn’t have so many young, successful mayors of multi-cultural working-class cities that they can afford to just burn them off like this. Maybe Leggett was unmanageable and the relationships were too toxic; I’ve no idea. Seems like there might be a story there.
  • Is Little’s rage at Leggett really ideological – outside of Labour’s tendency to label all of their opponents ‘far right’ – or a more pragmatic form of rage, given that Leggett might split the left vote, deny Justin Lester a first preference win and risk Leggett or the right-wing candidate winning on second preferences?
  • Telling Nash he couldn’t go to a public function with Phil Quin seems pretty reasonable to me, given that Quin routinely attacks Labour in print columns in the Herald. Telling MPs they can’t say or do something is routine stuff in a political party, but I’d expect that to be handled by the party whip, not the leader, and also for the conversation not to be made public, or for the leader to comment on it when it did. Nash will struggle to hold his seat next year, I think – the Conservative Party candidate split the vote in 2014 – and I doubt he’ll make it very high on the list, especially now.

August 11, 2016

Fate editorialises

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 3:17 pm

Via Scoop:

National List MP based in the Port Hills, Nuk Korako, has had his Airport Authorities (Lost Property) Amendment Bill drawn from the ballot today. The bill will make it easier for travellers to recover lost property.

“The Airport Authorities Act sets out the process a local or airport authority must go through before selling or disposing of lost property, this bill will modernise that process so it is more sensible and flexible,” Mr Korako said.

“The section of law we are amending is around providing the public with information about lost property, giving owners the chance to recover their property before the authority begins the process of sale or disposal.

“The current section of law is restrictive – currently all advertising must be in a newspaper circulating within the district of the airport. There’s no requirement for online notices or other forms of communication.

If you got a crack team of satirists working around the clock to figure out ways to depict the utter pointlessness of the third term National government, they’d never have come up with anything this perfectly inane. I guess this bill – if passed – will save the airports literally dozens of dollars in advertising fees by letting them stick lost property notifications on their web site instead of the local newspaper, and it prevented a different Member’s bill – which might have actually accomplished something for someone – from being drawn, so mission accomplished.

Low for some

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 9:07 am

Via the Herald:

The Reserve Bank has just the Official Cash Rate by 0.25 pc to a new record low of 2 per cent.

Cheap money! If you can get it. What we now have is a segregated credit regime in which many – ie younger, poorer people – can’t borrow because the loan-to-value ratios prevent them from doing so, but those who can access it – ie those with equity – have never been able to borrow at better rates. And now it gets better! If the banks even pass the cuts on.

August 10, 2016

Alternate theory

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 11:11 am

Via RNZ:

The government says it was aware in May that China had trade concerns and the two governments discussed trade competition issues at the time.
But Trade Minister Todd McClay insists the law prevents him from saying exactly what the dispute was about.

Last month, it emerged the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade had been investigating claims industry players in China had warned the kiwifruit exporter Zespri of possible trade retaliation over claims of steel dumping.

Steel makers were reported to have complained that Chinese manufacturers were dumping excess product here.

The practice of ‘dumping’, or selling surplus goods below cost, is illegal under most trade agreements, and the Chinese industry players were said to have threatened trade retaliation if the claims were investigated.

Initially, Mr McClay described media reports around the issue as “extremely hypothetical”.

Today, he said the two governments were discussing concerns as far back as May.

Labour leader Andrew Little said the government was not being straight.

Or they are being straight, and National’s Ministers are simply so heavily involved in fundraising, marketing and retail politics on behalf of their party they are genuinely unaware of anything happening in their Ministerial portfolios short of a land invasion.

More grist

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 9:36 am

A reader sent me a link to this Guardian interview with Elon Musk:

[Musk] was influenced, he says, by Isaac Asimov’s Foundation series, a science fiction saga in which a galactic empire falls and ushers in a dark age. “It’s sort of a futuristic version of Gibbon’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Let’s say you were at the peak of the Roman empire, what would you do, what action could you take, to minimise decline?”

It takes me a moment to realise it’s not a rhetorical question. Um, poison the barbarians’ water supply, I joke. Musk smiles and shakes his head. The answer is in technology. “The lessons of history would suggest that civilisations move in cycles. You can track that back quite far – the Babylonians, the Sumerians, followed by the Egyptians, the Romans, China. We’re obviously in a very upward cycle right now and hopefully that remains the case. But it may not. There could be some series of events that cause that technology level to decline. Given that this is the first time in 4.5bn years where it’s been possible for humanity to extend life beyond Earth, it seems like we’d be wise to act while the window was open and not count on the fact it will be open a long time.”

I dunno. Musk sounds a little like the beeper king from 30 Rock here. ‘Technology is cyclical, Liz!’

August 9, 2016

Class action time

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 12:29 pm

Russell Brown has a story in the New Zealand Drug Foundation’s journal about the government’s meth contaminated state houses scam. It sounds as if a lot of people who’ve been fined and evicted from their homes have a very legitimate grievance against Housing New Zealand, and that HNZ has wasted staggering sums of taxpayer money decontaminating state homes that pose virtually no danger to residents.  Money quote:

At the 0.5 microgram Ministry of Health guideline value – the point at which hundreds of properties are being declared uninhabitable – the possible dose from a wall or other surface is “1000 to 2000 times lower than the initial 5 mg dose given to a six-year-old for ADHD

August 8, 2016

Another outsourced question

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 2:23 pm

My memory seems terrible these days, so these requests may become a common feature of the blog. A few weeks ago, at the height of the abortive leadership campaign against Jeremy Corbyn there was an excerpt from a speech doing the rounds on various UK blogs and social media of (I think) a former Labour leader (MacDonald? Atlee?) castigating his own party for an obsession with principle over pragmatism with lines similar to ‘what wins applause at party conferences does not win applause in general elections’. Now I can’t find it! Anyone else see this and remember the speaker, or any searchable details?

Notes on slums and Asimov’s Foundation

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 11:44 am

I just listened to RNZ’s Morning Report, which consisted of a bitter debate between Matthew Hooton and Stephen Mills over whether the Labour-Green plan to build new state houses is a plan to build ‘slums’, and the vital point that wasn’t made is that many of the original state houses built by the first Labour government, ie the first ‘slums’ are now worth so much money that the government is selling them, because they can’t justify owning state houses with a multi-million dollar list value.

Also, I have this theory that Asimov’s Foundation trilogy is one of the most influential literary works of the twentieth century. The theory doesn’t have much credibility with many of the literary people I talk to, who have mostly not heard of it, but Paul Krugman had a good essay about the books in the Guardian a while back, and now I’m reading The Unwinding by George Packer, and Newt Gingrich and Peter Theil both cite Foundation as influential texts when they were growing up. Go Foundation.

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