The Dim-Post

November 18, 2011

4.9%

Filed under: Politics — danylmc @ 8:30 am

Even if New Zealand First’s high result in the Herald poll is just an outlier, it’s still significant because it sends a signal to other potential NZF voters that their vote might not be wasted, as it was in the last election.

I’m really torn here. I despise Peters and I don’t want to see him back in Parliament. But I also want to see Key and Joyce punished for their hubris and jaw-dropping strategic ineptitude, and Winston Peters is an awesomely perfect instrument of vengeance. If Joyce were running the Green Party campaign, Russel Norman would still be fronting up to press conferences about billboard vandalism, fielding questions about ‘what he knew when’ and angrily demanding the media write stories about something else.

46 Comments »

  1. Yes. Almost tempted to vote NZF as a strategic decision.
    Winston is the only face of NZF but then so is John Key. All the Cabinet Ministers have been shouted a trip to Hawaii for the duration of the Election.

    Comment by xianmac — November 18, 2011 @ 8:41 am

  2. I’ve been a (mostly) National voter for 50 years. I’m ashamed to confess that for 40 of those years I thought the people I voted for either knew what they were doing, or were at least doing their best.
    Last election I voted National, not because I agreed with their policies, but because i thought that they were the least objectionable bunch of fools.

    I perversely hoped that they’d go back on their pre-election promises and say, “Look folks, the country’s stuffed. We need to take our medicine and put things right. All bets are off, here’s what we’re gonna do.”

    They could have had a snap election and told the country, “if you want us to fix it through a decade of blood, sweat and tears vote for us, if you don’t, vote for the other crowd.”

    Key had the momentum to pull it off and he’s squandered it.

    I am totally disgusted. I’m full of righteous indignation verging on helpless rage. Key and Goff are no better than Winston First.

    Winnie’s going to pull it off. He hasn’t even come up with his usual irresponsible bribes yet. those will push him over the edge.

    The system is totally dysfunctional. Never mind the referendum on MMP vs the rest. Party democracy no longer works. When 60% of people polled by TV3 say that the retirement age shouldn’t be raised you know that the hoi poloi are insufficiently informed to be able to make a responsible choice so we have government by bribery of the lowest common denominator.

    Time to leverage off the Occupy Wall Street movement and create a whole new way of operating democracy.

    It’s an absolute tragedy.

    Comment by Alan Vallis — November 18, 2011 @ 8:50 am

  3. Maybe Winston will go into coalition with National? That would almost be worth it just to see how much he managed to piss Steven Joyce off in 3 years…

    Comment by Amy — November 18, 2011 @ 8:55 am

  4. “Do you not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?”
    Axel Gustafsson Oxenstierna af Södermöre to his son, who was worried that he’d have trouble holding his own in negotiations leading to the Peace of Westphalia treaties. 360 years and nothing’s changed.

    Comment by Alan Vallis — November 18, 2011 @ 9:04 am

  5. I think I will have to hold my nose and give my party vote to Winnie – and deal with my conscience later.

    Comment by thawed-out — November 18, 2011 @ 9:17 am

  6. MMP let’s us vote for what we actually want and have a reasonable expectation of actually getting it. ….so be careful voting for anything else. You’ll probably get it.🙂

    Comment by Steve (@nza1) — November 18, 2011 @ 9:23 am

  7. Don’t forget, with Winston comes Andrew Williams, the leaky mayor, and five or six other nobodies. The entertainment value will no doubt be high, but so will the cost to the country, its reputation, and its pocketbook.

    Comment by kyotolaw — November 18, 2011 @ 9:23 am

  8. I cannot believe that people would consider voting for Winston and holding their nose whilst doing so. There are better ‘strategic’ votes than him, surely. I can name Greens and Mana as two others.

    Comment by Richard Watts — November 18, 2011 @ 9:23 am

  9. @Richard #6,

    If you mean a “better strategic vote” as being effective in bringing additional MPs into Parliament to support a left-wing coalition then, based on this poll, the value of an extra 0.1% is much, much greater to NZ First than the Greens or Mana.

    Depending on where it came from, if an extra 0.1% went to NZ First, the left would gain 6 MPs. If an extra 0.1% went to the Greens or Mana, the left would gain – at most – one extra MP.

    I’m assuming Winston would renege on his pledge not to go into Government, but that seems a reasonable assumption for Winston.

    Comment by Jordan — November 18, 2011 @ 9:29 am

  10. @Jordan – If Peters has made a specific pledge ot not go into government then I suspect he will keep it. He has directly experienced what happens when you give up your leverage for the ‘baubles of office’. You disappear. One of the reasons the Greens have survived and thrived (I believe) is that they have never gone into coalition. The dangers are too obvious: You get token policy follow-through from a reluctant partner…..and only after you have swallowed all the dead rats they can muster…and you can’t complain.

    Comment by Steve (@nza1) — November 18, 2011 @ 9:39 am

  11. Yeah, I’d rather not have Winston befouling national politics for another three years just to have a giggle at Key’s expense. Until Winston stuck his head up again a few months ago, it was a delightfully quieter time in the media since the last election.

    Comment by Ataahua — November 18, 2011 @ 9:41 am

  12. That 0.1% should enliven this campaign. The other parties will now round on Winston and resurrect all the lies and broken promises, and he’ll return fire. People who say they are going to vote for NZ First may be protesting by supporting the devil they know. The other parties haven’t instilled confidence, as shown by an inability to run a election campaign, much less a country. Go the Greys, even if near-senile and/or dying.

    Comment by Bruce Hamilton — November 18, 2011 @ 9:48 am

  13. Arrhh the circus.such fond memories..through all this i still feel a need to vote I am now not sure who, or what it is, i am voting for. Clowns with big grins,immaculate hair and great image are on the rise yet those slightly more disheveled seem to be the more principled. I cling tenaciously to anything with an ounce of truth. In the hall of mirrors should i go with appearances and let the percentages sort themselves out? Thankfully this circus de soul and its associated set of hula-hooped dilemmas visits our psyche’ only once every 3 years. With just a week to go, a swift exit from the “Big Top” beckons.

    Comment by tawhaowhao — November 18, 2011 @ 10:00 am

  14. a swift exit from the “Big Top” beckons

    Winston irritates me too, but surely suicide is unwarranted as a reaction?

    Comment by Neil — November 18, 2011 @ 10:10 am

  15. Winston irritates me too, but surely suicide is unwarranted as a reaction?

    Maybe tawhaowhao’s parents have secretly been recorded by an unscrupulous member of the media?

    Comment by Phil — November 18, 2011 @ 10:19 am

  16. Even if New Zealand First’s high result in the Herald poll is just an outlier, it’s still significant because it sends a signal to other potential NZF voters that their vote might not be wasted, as it was in the last election.

    Does it also send a signal to swing voters who hate Winston that the only way of avoiding Winston “deciding who governs” is to give National a parliamentary majority?

    [hat-tip Simon Pound for this insight]

    Comment by Graeme Edgeler — November 18, 2011 @ 10:23 am

  17. “5.I think I will have to hold my nose and give my party vote to Winnie – and deal with my conscience later.”

    What an awful thing to do. Think of the good of the country.

    Comment by gn — November 18, 2011 @ 10:27 am

  18. Wot Graeme said +1.

    Here’s a hilarious thought … a vote to , combined with a majority National Government with Winston Peters (and assorted fruitloops) in the House

    Comment by Grassed Up — November 18, 2011 @ 10:27 am

  19. Well, THAT didn’t come out like I meant it to … should say: “Here’s a hilarious thought … a vote to change from MMP (thus another referendum in 2014), combined with a majority National Government with Winston Peters (and assorted fruitloops) in the House. Could be a recipe to mess NZ up for decades to come.”

    Comment by Grassed Up — November 18, 2011 @ 10:29 am

  20. “Does it also send a signal to swing voters who hate Winston that the only way of avoiding Winston “deciding who governs” is to give National a parliamentary majority?”

    Thats certainly the talk around the water cooler this morning- the middle class “luxury” of voting Green is gone, all votes to National to keep Peters out!

    Comment by gn — November 18, 2011 @ 10:30 am

  21. If Nats form a minotiry government could Winston do a deal with JK and abstain from confidance and supply votes in exchange for some policy wins? That way they both keep their word since technically they’re not in government together.

    I see that as far more likely than Winston doing the same for a Labour/Green minority gov, given how socially conservative he is and how much he hates the Greens.

    Comment by JB — November 18, 2011 @ 10:37 am

  22. Mothers response: “appalled… populist… divisive… scapegoats…unpleasant”. Very lolzy. Woman needs to learn to click cited URLs.

    Comment by Helen — November 18, 2011 @ 10:50 am

  23. Winston Peters is an awesomely perfect instrument of vengeance.

    …on the people of New Zealand?!

    Comment by StephenR — November 18, 2011 @ 11:09 am

  24. Does it also send a signal to swing voters who hate Winston that the only way of avoiding Winston “deciding who governs” is to give National a parliamentary majority?
    That’s certainly the meme DPF is trying to create in the Herald, with a nice little “you should also vote against MMP” helping on the side.
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10766944

    Comment by garethw — November 18, 2011 @ 11:14 am

  25. The obvious alternative to keep Winston out and keep National under 50% is United Future.- must be a heck of a lot more palatable than Winston and is one of the safest options.

    Comment by Pete George — November 18, 2011 @ 12:14 pm

  26. Pete: Honestly, that’s your pitch? Yeesh.

    Comment by Simon Poole — November 18, 2011 @ 12:20 pm

  27. It’s a lot better pitch than “hold your nose and vote for Winston” when you compare his track record to Dunne’s. Who would you trust?

    Comment by Pete George — November 18, 2011 @ 12:23 pm

  28. “My campaign is a disaster, Moe. I hate the public so much. If only they’d elect me, I’d make them pay!” – Homer Simpson

    Comment by Adze — November 18, 2011 @ 12:24 pm

  29. No, I don’t trust Dunne a whole lot. He’s mostly proven that he’s quite happy to go along with whatever National want in order to get the ministerial salary and the fancy title. And, given that a vote for Dunne is going to get exactly 0 extra seats in Parliament, I don’t really feel like wasting my one vote. The whole point of people wanting to vote for Winston is, as has been said above, that 0.1% extra will earn him 6 or so seats in Parliament. Thats kind of a big deal.

    Jumping up and down saying “United Future – we’re not as bad as Winston or National” isn’t going to seal the deal.

    Comment by Simon Poole — November 18, 2011 @ 12:33 pm

  30. “If Nats form a minotiry government could Winston do a deal with JK and abstain from confidance and supply votes in exchange for some policy wins? ”

    I’ve presumed that was his goal since he made that declaration.

    Frankly it seems that formal coalitions on the Alliance-Labour or National-NZF model may turn out to have been only a temporary feature of NZ politics.

    Comment by Hugh — November 18, 2011 @ 12:45 pm

  31. Yes, 6 or so of Winston First is a big deal. And a big worry.

    Comment by Pete George — November 18, 2011 @ 12:46 pm

  32. “Yes, 6 or so of Winston First is a big deal. And a big worry.”

    probably. but I’m also worried that United Future might get back in in Ohariu. that would suck as well.

    Comment by nommopilot — November 18, 2011 @ 12:54 pm

  33. PG: To me it seems that you and Dunne are basically National fanboys. I see no reason to vote for your party instead of National itself. At least Winston stands for something different.

    Comment by wtl — November 18, 2011 @ 12:57 pm

  34. “To me it seems that you and Dunne are basically National fanboys. ”

    I can’t remember which post it was in aid of but PG once claimed that we needed United Future to impose a moderating influence on National and then couldn’t name a single National policy UF would pull them toward the centre on, since National is already so moderate. And that’s apparently all down to Peter Dunne! What a guy!

    Here’s an idea, maybe if we all pretend to agree to vote for UF, he’ll clam up.

    Comment by Hugh — November 18, 2011 @ 1:37 pm

  35. Hugh – if National need Maori and UF in coalition it could have an interesting influence on National Super because both UF and MP propose earlier eligibility age options. Could get that addressed rather than let Key shelve it.

    UF would push for more action on water quality, especially if we get several seats (it’s hard for one MP to cover much policy ground). Income sharing is a UF policy that would be more likely to get through. UF will moderate on asset sales.

    If UF were to get several seats it would make a significant difference to what we can achieve. I’d love to be able to add weight to getting Dunedin out of the political doldrums, we deserve better than same old 2xLab party hacks.

    Comment by Pete George — November 18, 2011 @ 1:57 pm

  36. Re “fanboy” – I’m a fan of National being the best large party option we have at the moment, but there’s no other credible choice right now. Labour/Green/NZF doesn’t look good. Labour have pretty much wasted a term of non-rebuilding. I’ve never voted (party) National.

    Comment by Pete George — November 18, 2011 @ 2:03 pm

  37. PG: I’m not saying that you should go with Labour, but my comment is more akin to Hugh’s. There seem to be very few National policies you don’t agree with, especially the big ones like asset sales, and instead you only have minor differences.

    Comment by wtl — November 18, 2011 @ 2:09 pm

  38. no ones talking about the eloquence in the room. What a verbose nation we are when given a few gigs.

    Comment by tawhaowhao — November 18, 2011 @ 2:17 pm

  39. wtl – UF don’t agree with National’s asset sales policy. National policy is to part sell some assets, UF don’t have a policy to sell any assets.

    One of the issues that urgently needs attention (in my opinion cross party agreement is required) is national super and our policies on that are different.

    There is potential for UF and Greens to team up on our similar water quality policies and push that much harder than National are prepared to.

    Just say UF get five seats, UF1-5 will have substantially more potential to influence (with different priorities) than Nat 58-62.

    Comment by Pete George — November 18, 2011 @ 2:35 pm

  40. If we’re speculating on what would happen if UF got five seats we might just as usefully speculate about what would happen if John Key comes out of the closet on national TV. About as likely, I’d say.

    But OK, I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say even with five seats Peter Dunne would not expend his limited political capital fighting asset sales when there are other policy areas he cares more about.

    Comment by Hugh — November 18, 2011 @ 3:03 pm

  41. I’m really torn here. I despise Peters and I don’t want to see him back in Parliament. But I also want to see Key and Joyce punished for their hubris and jaw-dropping strategic ineptitude, and Winston Peters is an awesomely perfect instrument of vengeance

    i feel exactly the same

    Comment by the sprout — November 18, 2011 @ 3:21 pm

  42. Whatever – UF1-3 is quite feasible depending on how the last week lottery goes (and unlike Key’s closet it’s been done before 3 on 2005, 8 on 2002) and would have much more chance of influence than Nat 60-62.

    You may be right, mixed asset ownership may not be a high priority but that would also depend on what other parties are involved. Personally I’m ambivalent about extend the Air NZ ownership model a bit, it doesn’t seem that big a deal to me.

    My main interest is in getting better representation for Dunedin and UF was the best opportunity for me to achieve that, it’s already been very successful albeit steps along the way. I’ve already had significant support indicated from a number of parties, including MPs and local interest groups. I think we have a good chance of changing the way we do democracy here.

    UF has admittedly been a hard sell here, ‘Dunedin voice’ has really hit a chord.

    Becoming an MP (I always knew that was a long shot but I’ve been giving it my best shot in the electorate as well as with the party) would add weight to it but it is not essential, in ways it will be easier not being an MP.

    Comment by Pete George — November 18, 2011 @ 3:21 pm

  43. You know in retrospect I shouldn’t have fed the troll.

    Comment by Hugh — November 18, 2011 @ 4:24 pm

  44. If you want a protest vote that isn’t National and Labour, think about the Greens. Wreak vengeance. But do it sensibly.

    Comment by George D — November 18, 2011 @ 7:32 pm

  45. I reckon three years of Winston holding Key to the flame would be fantastic!!!! So looking forward to giving my vote toe NZ First. At least Peters will present a decent opposition.

    Comment by Tim — November 18, 2011 @ 8:26 pm

  46. In the event of MMP going to a second referendum, three years of Winston’s antics could make it something of an uphill battle to win in 2014. Something else to think about..

    Comment by Zeke H — November 21, 2011 @ 2:32 am


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