The Dim-Post

November 20, 2011

Quote of the day, that about sums it up edition

Filed under: psuedopolitics — danylmc @ 6:05 am

From Audrey Young’s column yesterday:

Labour leader Phil Goff yesterday acknowledged that the final week would be “a big challenge for us”.

“But then the French were the underdogs right up to the five minutes before the start of the last test.”

The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour down on 24.5%.

34 Comments »

  1. whilst different to 2002 I’m wondering if labour has the ability to resurrect itself before 2014. potential for greens with 10 percent plus to push on and demote labour to third party. reasons for are labours financial problems, unlike national in 2002 labour yet to have a leadership clean out. this might see greens present coherent opposition and with a building of grass roots capability push to 20 plus in 2014. against is tribal labour but they have limited intergenerational appeal.

    Comment by wh — November 20, 2011 @ 7:18 am

  2. whilst different to 2002 I’m wondering if labour has the ability to resurrect itself before 2014

    Unlikely given the focus of their list on incumbent-protection. As a result, a lot of the new blood of 2008 is at risk. Which means the party will be even more dominated by the likes of Mallard, who have got it into this mess.

    Comment by Idiot/Savant — November 20, 2011 @ 8:10 am

  3. Labour should have had their rejuvenation 3 years ago eh I/S.

    Comment by will — November 20, 2011 @ 8:25 am

  4. This mess was seen 3 years ago but they did nothing. I am looking forward to election night

    Comment by graham — November 20, 2011 @ 8:37 am

  5. You treally, really don’t like Phil Goff do you Danyl?

    Comment by Sanctuary — November 20, 2011 @ 9:41 am

  6. “…unlike national in 2002 labour yet to have a leadership clean out. …”

    Your a dick.

    Like, ummm, Bill English? Well, no he is deputy PM… Or how about Murray McCul… oops, nope. Maybe Gerry Brownlee! He was cleaned out wasn’t he??? National’s “clean out” consists of an moron minister of education from the backblocks and two or three focus group cradboard cut-outs from central casting.

    Comment by Sanctuary — November 20, 2011 @ 9:45 am

  7. “potential for greens with 10 percent plus to push on and demote labour to third party”

    Are you actually serious? Even at arguably its lowest ebb Labour still has twice the support of the Greens. Not to mention the fact that, even if the Greens are polling at 13%, based on recent history they will likely come in lower on election night. They’ll end up around 10%

    Comment by Brad Gibbons — November 20, 2011 @ 10:12 am

  8. You have some pretty disturbing anger problems Sanctuary.

    Comment by will — November 20, 2011 @ 10:24 am

  9. ‘You have some pretty disturbing anger problems’ Little Willie advances the argument with another highly reasoned proposition.

    Comment by Galeandra — November 20, 2011 @ 10:29 am

  10. “moron minister of education from the backblocks”

    Napier?

    Comment by Bea — November 20, 2011 @ 11:03 am

  11. Geez have you seen the future dividend streams of those SOEs on the block next year? Looking forward to owing a piece of that action. You know National will undersell them by 20%. (Forget AIR NZ though unless the cabin crew start to come from China)

    Anyways cheers Phil he is doing his best.

    Comment by Simon — November 20, 2011 @ 11:14 am

  12. Typically Danyl you miss the point. The All Blacks were billed to romp in without any opposition. In spite of the hype the French came so close to winning and could have. Its not that they didn’t, its that they could have.
    The hype has been for a devastating free huge win for National and Act. So Phil’s point is very valid. Danyl you should be careful when denigrating Phil. It ain’t over just yet.

    Comment by xianmac — November 20, 2011 @ 12:08 pm

  13. @8 ~ Sanctuary is one of the best commentators here, his anger is well focussed. Rock on, Sanc.

    actually will, you have some pretty disturbing National party arse licking problems. Do you want to share?

    Comment by Alistair — November 20, 2011 @ 12:46 pm

  14. @ Sanctuary “dick”
    @ Alister “arse licking”

    You guys just rock with the homoerotic undertones. Keep up the balanced analysis.

    Nek Minnit Labour = 24.5% in the Roy Morgan poll.

    Comment by will — November 20, 2011 @ 2:33 pm

  15. “Unlikely given the focus of their list on incumbent-protection. As a result, a lot of the new blood of 2008 is at risk. Which means the party will be even more dominated by the likes of Mallard, who have got it into this mess.”

    DPF has been pushing this meme for years, kinda surprised to see you buy into it.

    Comment by Hugh — November 20, 2011 @ 2:34 pm

  16. Danyl – you missed the best bit, where the journo points out the French lost, and there is this delicious leaden pause while Goff struggles to find a way to recover from that…. comedy gold😉

    Sanctuary – I’m to the left of Labour, so hardly likely to support National getting back in. So when I say wh is right – Labour have not cleaned out the deadwood in their caucus – I mean it constructively. I think Goff tried initially (even pushing out his mate Hawkins to set an example), but the rest were so greedy they have hung in there for the big paycheck. After all, what has Maryann Street or Ruth Dyson or Ross Robertson done? Ever?

    IanMac – you really don’t help Labour. At all.

    It will be healthy for the Greens to eclipse Labour – they have brains and empathy with many Kiwis. Just gotta stop Norman from going all Gordon Gecko😉

    Comment by bob — November 20, 2011 @ 3:05 pm

  17. @Hugh

    Unfortunately, it’s pretty easy to buy into.
    Like the Earth revolving about the Sun meme.

    Comment by Gregor W — November 20, 2011 @ 3:05 pm

  18. Yep- NZ has a reputation for underdogs and battlers- Peter Snell would have been a nice analogy say…We love a kiwi underdog!

    Comment by sheesh — November 20, 2011 @ 3:51 pm

  19. Wait, aside from not containing Mallard, what was so great about Labour’s class of 2008? Ardern and Robertson are safe, Davis will make it unless the Morgan poll holds up (and I wouldn’t believe until it’s been replicated), Twyford had better win Te Atatu. Most of the rest fall into the dreaded “showed just enough hints they might become players to avoid getting the boot” category.

    Comment by bradluen — November 20, 2011 @ 4:03 pm

  20. expanding on my first comment. demographic and social change indicate both act and nz first will not be relevant in 2014. they are not particularly relevant now. this results in a three party contest in 2014, with the greens having appeal to both young and middle aged urbanites. to enhance there presentation to the wider electorate and influence the remaining soft labour voters they could invite David clarke and david shearer to jump ship. as electorate mps that would be an option available to them, ignoring the excommunication they would get from the party. I’m not sure the same deal could be done with jacinda adern being a list mp. with the two of them address the green party could line up for a chance of forming the govt in 2017. this may happen regardless. the current form of labour may end up as a sub 10% party.

    Comment by wh — November 20, 2011 @ 4:39 pm

  21. I love the way all these people are coming out now as ‘Green converts’. It is such bullshit to believe that the Greens will ever be the ‘second party’ in parliament. This changing demographics argument is completely undermined when you actually break down the stats and find that the bulk of Labour voters are young – in some age brackets the support is twice that of National. It is National, Act and New Zealand First voters that are currently aging.

    The other reason that Greens will probably always linger around 10% is that they are still largely a one policy party. They can try and make this an ‘umbrella’ policy, but ultimately no-one thinks they could handle portfolios like health, education or social development. And once you get beyond Norman and Turei they are quite a collective of freaks and geeks. The Greens are tres fab at the moment to people that regret their National vote last time and do not want to recommit to Labour yet, but the feisty core of Labour will continue to be at least 25% – this just will not shift. People who were obviously swayed by the carefully constructed National narrative that Clark was a tyrant ready to come into our houses and kill our children, just want to see some further bloodshed in the party so that they can turn to their friends over a latte and justify their voting change.

    The other annoying thing about the Greens is they have truly taken on the political teachings of the National party. They are bland and lifeless. They have become empty vessels that mean so little that people can put whatever values they like on them. They have lost their character and they just don’t feel genuine anymore. In an attempt to become middle-class they have lost what actually made them attractive. I do worry that if they continue to try and work with National they will completely lose their base and implode – a la Maori party.

    And anyway, they just freak too many people out to get beyond 13%…

    Comment by Tim — November 20, 2011 @ 5:24 pm

  22. The closest a Green Party has come to becoming a second-placed party is in Germany. Earlier this year the German Greens beat the SPD in some polls, though not consistently. Now they’re 10-15 points behind again.

    One difference is the German Greens have had a couple of terms in coalition government, during which they managed to not ban driving or give away state secrets to North Korea.

    Comment by bradluen — November 20, 2011 @ 5:53 pm


  23. The other annoying thing about the Greens is they have truly taken on the political teachings of the National party. They are bland and lifeless. They have become empty vessels that mean so little that people can put whatever values they like on them. They have lost their character and they just don’t feel genuine anymore. In an attempt to become middle-class they have lost what actually made them attractive. I do worry that if they continue to try and work with National they will completely lose their base and implode – a la Maori party.

    Since the Greens are almost certain to be an opposition party for the next 3 years, you’ll get the chance to see them test their mettle against National. Already they’re the default opposition on a number of issues (eg. mining, environment, transport, internet policy), expect them to take that further and push into the mainstream consciousness.

    They’ve been careful in their marketing, but I don’t think that means they’ve changed their relative positioning greatly. At least not from where I stand.

    Comment by George D — November 20, 2011 @ 6:15 pm

  24. @Tim: “And once you get beyond Norman and Turei they are quite a collective of freaks and geeks.”

    Really? See here: http://www.greens.org.nz/people/candidates. I’ll give you Catherine Delahunty, but her aside, who exactly in the top 15 would you call a “freak” or “geek” (in a sense that other candidates for other parties – Labour especially – are not)?

    Also, is there not something a bit skew-whiff about damning the Greens for being bland sell outs that don’t stand for anything, yet claim they “freak people out” so will never top 13%? Which is it?

    Comment by Andrew Geddis — November 20, 2011 @ 6:54 pm

  25. The other reason that Greens will probably always linger around 10% is that they are still largely a one policy party.
    Great, finally someone who actually knows which single policy we are identified with. Can you please let us know so I can inform the Green Party campaign committee ? We’re really flummoxed about this; is it climate change, smart green economics, health, or education ? Or is it our justice policy, gender issues, ending child poverty or cleaning up the rivers ? There a just so many different policies that we simply can’t work out which one it is !

    They are bland and lifeless. They have become empty vessels that mean so little that people can put whatever values they like on them.
    Got it. Less blandness, more jizz. And I’ll let the team know that Operation Empty Vessel is a complete success !

    Comment by Mikaere Curtis — November 20, 2011 @ 6:59 pm

  26. Can I just say that claiming the Greens are identified with either health or education or even economics has to be the craziest thing I have heard a politician say in a long time? Be realistic. Those are issues where at best the Greens have very good policy, but no one cares.

    What has Maryan Street ever done? I dunno, been the first out lesbian MP? Had a very impressive career outside politics as an industrial relations expert? (And of course, she’s only been there since 2005; I am unsure why she’s coupled with Dyson and Robertson.)

    Comment by Keir — November 20, 2011 @ 7:24 pm

  27. Andrew sez: I’ll give you Catherine Delahunty, but her aside, who exactly in the top 15 would you call a “freak” or “geek”

    The only one who comes close for mine is Steffan Browning of SHANZ and the Pesticide Action Network, for whom every “chemical”, scare quotes because everything’s a chemical really, is a violation of the integrity of our food chain and is going to corrupt our bodily fluids, or something. The others are generally notable for strong qualifications and experience in the policy fields in which they claim expertise, which is more than can be said for most other MPs, let alone candidates. A pretty far cry from the kaftan-wearing peacenik crypto-socialist homoeopathic-munching breathairian folk-dancers of yore.

    Some Labourites are still whingeing about vote-cannibalisation and Clare Curran’s Vast Right-Wing-Non-Labour-Left-Wing-Conspiracy, to which I say: fuck that noise, Jack. As far as I’m concerned the best possible situation for Labour is for a strong non-Labour left to nip at their heels and force them to take a long, hard look at themselves. The bigger the fire lit under their arses, the better, and I think this Green intake might have the goods. If the vote holds up, it will be pound-for-pound the best-qualified, smartest and youngest caucus in the parliament, with the possible exception of Te Mana, if they manage to get Harawira, Sykes, Minto, Bradford and Kelsey over the line (obviously they won’t be the youngest). Whether this will translate into effective politics and policy is, of course, a different matter. But I think the left has reason to be hopeful over the long term.

    L

    Comment by Lew — November 20, 2011 @ 7:27 pm

  28. Surprisingly, you can read essentially the same posting from Tim on RA spread across a number of threads.
    Apparently, Labour = good, everyone else = easily duped class sellouts.

    Comment by Gregor W — November 20, 2011 @ 7:29 pm

  29. An awful lot of the ‘one policy’ thingys seem to have been ‘white anted’
    by other Parties…

    Comment by Peter Martin — November 20, 2011 @ 7:33 pm

  30. A strong Green Party is manna from heaven for Labour. They can concentrate on cannibalising National’s support among centre voters and form an unbeatable political bloc.

    Instead I predict they’ll devote themselves to ‘destroying’ the Green Party.

    Comment by danylmc — November 20, 2011 @ 7:35 pm

  31. Oh wait, seems Jane Kelsey isn’t on the Mana list. Anyway, the rest stands: you might reckon Harawira, Minto, Bradford and Sykes are a crazy bunch & disagree with everything they stand for, but they’ve got some pretty strong radical chops & nothing to prove to anyone.

    L

    Comment by Lew — November 20, 2011 @ 7:36 pm

  32. ‘it will be pound-for-pound the best-qualified, smartest and youngest caucus in the parliament’

    *sigh* And frankly, it behoves folk to ensure this is the case.

    Comment by Peter Martin — November 20, 2011 @ 7:40 pm

  33. Meanwhile, National new intake promises little.

    Can anyone tell me what Mark Mitchell (N, Rodney) will bring to Parliament? Apart from experience in evading candidate meetings and refusing to answer questions in the local rag?

    (Seems to be a prerequisite of National Party candidature this election; mustn’t remind people we are not all John Key!)

    Comment by MeToo — November 20, 2011 @ 8:50 pm

  34. @ MeToo – Mark Mitchell of National will bring guns, lots of guns! Guns for hire! Should make next Guy Fawkes interesting😉

    Comment by bob — November 21, 2011 @ 2:17 pm


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