There’s a nice example of the Pundit’s Fallacy over on Kiwiblog. DPF argues that for National to be re-elected in 2014 they need to be an activist, ‘reforming’ government ‘making tough decisions’, by which DPF means a far-right government:
National will need to confront some of the harder issues such as housing affordability, and will have to make calls on do we leave mineral wealth in the ground or not.
Basically, DPF feels that to get elected the government should adopt the values and policies of the ACT Party, which, not coincidentally, are David’s own values.
All the historical evidence suggests that following DFP’s advice would plunge the economy back into deep recession and make National unelectable for many, many years, so I doubt they will actually do this. But the immediate political environment makes it impossible. Currently the far-right vote is split, much of it is wasted. In much the same way the Tsarist secret police once set up dummy revolutionary parties to attract dissidents, National are rebuilding ACT to try and capture all those votes into a far-right party they exercise total control over. They’re not going to want to compete with that party by implementing its policy agenda.
National needs to compete with Labour. Labour doesn’t have a problem with wasted votes in the left. They go to the Greens, who don’t scare the shit out of mainstream voters the way ACT does. Labour needs to (a) get out the vote amongst Maori and low income earners, which is about party organization and candidate selection, not political positioning, and (b) win votes off the Nats. So they’re free to occupy the centre. If the Nats lurch to the far right then they’re doomed.