The Dim-Post

March 4, 2012

Encouraging trend

Filed under: polls — danylmc @ 8:40 am

Roy Morgan has a new poll out, and this graph shows the post-election National vs Greens/Labour vote. Basically Labour is gaining and the Greens are holding steady.

Maybe National are implementing unpopular policies now on the hope that they’ll pay off over three years, and they’ll be re-elected on the strength of an economic recovery. I think this is unlikely. Asset sales, welfare reform and public service cuts are happening because they have to – English is broke and boxed into a corner fiscally.


  1. Put some dates on the x axis

    Comment by Andrew R — March 4, 2012 @ 8:55 am

  2. that’s not ‘have to’ in the sense of there being no alternative – they could reverse the tax cuts, cancel motorway-building plans, remove the implicit subsidies in the ETS… Other possibilities include seizing back all the money given to Iwi in Maori land claims, seizing the assets of privately-owned companies, selling the people of Invercargill into slavery, distracting the public by declaring war on Samoa…
    It’s more a case of that they have to do something, and this is the solution that their ideology suggests.

    Comment by kahikatea — March 4, 2012 @ 9:12 am

  3. “selling the people of Invercargill into slavery,”

    I’d vote for that one.

    Comment by Amy — March 4, 2012 @ 10:25 am

  4. Not sure if National are thinking too far ahead or if they aren’t thinking far ahead enough. It’s very hard to see how asset sales, welfare reform, and public service cuts are going to help growth by 2014. National’s thinking seems to be one of the following:

    1) Voters care about the deficit and not growth — which goes against all the historical evidence
    2) We’re going to rely on the global economy to surge and drag us along — which seems too optimistic
    3) We have a SUPER-SECRET PLAN to charge growth which we’re saving for closer to the next election
    4) We’re fucked in 2014, might as well get this ideological stuff done while we have the numbers

    Kind of hoping for 3!

    Comment by bradluen — March 4, 2012 @ 10:56 am

  5. Agree with Kahikatea, the policies National is currently pushing will not lead to more growth. If anything, they will create a more unequal society, making us all poorer.

    Comment by alex — March 4, 2012 @ 11:04 am

  6. It’s number 4, sorry

    Comment by Angela Hart — March 4, 2012 @ 11:06 am

  7. 27 months is a long time in politics. What seems tough today and therefore exposes the plastic interior of Mr Key, will ease into acceptance. The Nats will guide that worm up again. Watch for populists announcements soon.

    Comment by ianmac — March 4, 2012 @ 11:07 am

  8. @Brad. I am starting to think that #4 is the case. I actually don’t think Key will see out this term, if he knows he is slipping he will jump ship and retire, leaving the rest to fight over the scraps

    Comment by max — March 4, 2012 @ 11:17 am

  9. @ianmac – how is forcing solo mums to work not a populist announcement?

    Comment by ieuan — March 4, 2012 @ 11:22 am

  10. What Kahikatea said – National have choices; their policies are a reflection of their ideology, not necessity. They could reverse the tax cuts that failed to kickstart the economy, for a start.

    Comment by bob — March 4, 2012 @ 12:26 pm

  11. Maybe I should have said ‘palatable choices’. The reality is that they campaigned on asset sales, and they didn’t campaign on tax increases -and there haven’t been any major events to justify a complete abandonment of their election manifesto. So it would be very dishonorable of them to just ditch it.

    Comment by danylmc — March 4, 2012 @ 12:34 pm

  12. Crystal ball-gazing: it seems Shearer should be using his +10 Diplomacy to keep both the Maori Party and Mana open as confidence & supply options. Seems very possible that Labour + Green end up at something like 47%, needing a couple more seats for a majority. Neither the Maori Party nor Mana can guarantee you those couple of seats alone, and you reeeaaally don’t want to be forced into kowtowing to Old Man Winston.

    The alternative would be for Labour to simply not stand in the Maori seats, but I suspect that the public would call shenanigans on that.

    Comment by bradluen — March 4, 2012 @ 1:24 pm

  13. Brad@12. Maybe ACT will be born-again and develop a Social conscience, and throw in their support for the Left. No! I am not dreaming or drunk! Mr Shearer could brew a cup and presto a whole new bunch of supporters!

    Comment by ianmac — March 4, 2012 @ 2:48 pm

  14. Yeah, I’m going to have to agree with bradluen here. Shearer seems to be able to get something going with the Greens and NZF seemingly functioning as an opposition (or maybe they’re appearing that way because the government is so dysfunctional right now?) and has indicated he’s happy to work with Mana. One of the real issues with the later Clark years was the manner in which they dropped the Greens like a bad habit, in favour of United Future. It seems that is something he’s addressing, now that he’s demonstrated he’s more than happy to work with the Greens – they’re now even doing fund raising for cancer research together.

    Also, what’s the URL for the RM poll?

    Comment by Vagabundo — March 4, 2012 @ 4:59 pm

  15. Whats with this desire to enslave the people of Invercargill. Give us a break. How about enslaving the people of Epsom?

    Comment by aj — March 4, 2012 @ 6:37 pm

  16. And the latest is that Key’s Wall Street-ism is getting offside with the cow cockies. The sound of a political wedge opening up.

    Comment by DeepRed — March 4, 2012 @ 7:09 pm

  17. Footnote: The only time Labour + Largest 3rd Party totalled over 47% in the MMP era was the 2002 English Implosion. 47% won’t be enough to form a govt alone unless there’s a huge wasted vote, so one would be well-advised to have multiple options for the next cab off the rank.

    Comment by bradluen — March 4, 2012 @ 9:12 pm

  18. @ 4. Brad, God loves an optimist Good luck!

    Comment by peterlepaysan — March 4, 2012 @ 10:09 pm

  19. “47% won’t be enough to form a govt alone unless there’s a huge wasted vote”

    Watch for some sort of deal with the Conservatives?

    Comment by MeToo — March 5, 2012 @ 6:06 am

  20. I doubt the farmers who have been soured on National will be voting for Labour, even if some may vote that way out of spite in 2014. If they do affect the vote, in all likelihood, it will be due to them staying at home on election day.

    Comment by Vagabundo — March 5, 2012 @ 9:56 am

  21. >The only time Labour + Largest 3rd Party totalled over 47% in the MMP era was the 2002 English Implosion. 47% won’t be enough to form a govt alone unless there’s a huge wasted vote, so one would be well-advised to have multiple options for the next cab off the rank.

    Yeah, or things could change. These statistics were made to be broken. We haven’t lived through times like these before. National’s stock could crash – after 6 years, the party that’s all about good economic management having produced nothing but poverty could be subjected to a landslide.

    Comment by Ben Wilson — March 5, 2012 @ 10:05 am

  22. The graph is a bit meaningless without any dates on the bottom axis. Even I know this, and I have an Arts degree.

    Comment by helenalex — March 5, 2012 @ 10:46 am

  23. I think this is a typical trend of what happens after an election, particularly when a political party has just been voted into their second term in the middle of a global economic downturn.

    It’s hard to tell what’s going to happen in 2014 because Shearer hasn’t really done anything yet and Key hasn’t really lived up to his promises.

    Comment by Daniel Lang — March 5, 2012 @ 11:52 am

  24. They could reverse the tax cuts that failed to kickstart the economy, for a start.
    We’re [National] fucked in 2014

    Unemployment is trending down. Consumer confidence and spending is improving. Households are paying off debt at rates pretty much unseen in modern NZ history (we’re actually saving) Business investment and employment intentions are showing better outturns than in previous years. The rebuild of Canterbury is, finally, getting underway.

    The US has an achievable path to get out of its debt-hole. Euro-area recession looks like it’s going to be contained to the worst-offenders; Greece, Portugal, and the like, without a huge direct spillover to NZ or our Asia-Pac trading partners.

    Now, you obviously can’t lay all the credit at the door of “Tax Cuts!!!”, but to imply we’re still in a GFC-esque fug is completely ignorant of pretty much every economic statistic in New Zealand. I said before the 2011 election that I thought National had good prospects of winning 2014 as well, and I still stand by that, absent any “dead girl, live boy” scandal with the PM.

    I expect we’ll see a campaign from National that shares DNA with Reagan’s “Morning in America” re-election theme.

    Comment by Phil — March 5, 2012 @ 12:40 pm

  25. So we’re heading for a Brigther Future (TM), then, Phil?

    I admire your optimism but I’ll reserve judgement as to whether things are actually trending anywhere. Assuming the global economy is on the mend relies on the assumption that what was done to resolve it in 2008 actually fixed the problem rather than merely postponing its effects for a few years. I don’t think this is the case.

    Comment by nommopilot — March 5, 2012 @ 12:47 pm

  26. For those asking about the URL to original Roy Morgan poll, here’s the source:

    Comment by kimshepherd — March 5, 2012 @ 2:45 pm

  27. “If they do affect the vote, in all likelihood, it will be due to them staying at home on election day.”

    Or vote for Winston First. Seems the logical option if they find Labour-Greens ‘too PC’ and NACT ‘too Wall Street’.

    Comment by DeepRed — March 5, 2012 @ 2:54 pm

  28. Either way, it probably won’t hurt the (at this stage) likely Labour-Green-NZF coalition if the 2014 election goes that way.

    Also, cheers Kim.

    Comment by Vagabundo — March 5, 2012 @ 9:37 pm

  29. I suspect National is asset-stripping New Zealand’s energy assets….and in 3 years it will be too late to do anything about it.

    Six years after Peak Oil, looking down the barrel of relative energy scarcity, National’s corporate backers want those energy assets….and “their” party will sell them to them.

    Comment by Steve (@nza1) — March 6, 2012 @ 12:26 pm

  30. The farmers of this country need to recognise the need for a party that will advocate for lower taxation for farm revenue. Farmers used to be able to make a decent profit each year and they would invest it back on the farm and so the cycle would continue. But if you adjust the profits of 40 years ago for inflation, you’d realise that these days farmers tend to make squat compared with the “old days”, so I would suggest that they vote for the “Liberal Party”!

    Comment by Daniel Lang — March 6, 2012 @ 12:42 pm

  31. Asset sales, welfare reform and public service cuts are happening because they have to – English is broke and boxed into a corner fiscally.

    apart from being against govt via referenda on princple, that’s why i don’t support the referendum on asset sales. It gives the false impression that one can pick and choose individual economic policies without regard to what else is in the package.

    The choice is not Asset Sales OR Magic Wand, it’s Asset Sales OR Tax Increase OR Service Cuts OR More Borrowing. People might not like asset sales but they may not like the alternatives either and referenda just encourages a Goldolocks attitude to difficult decisions

    I doubt Labour is going to put a CGT to a referndum just because it’s unpopular as well and neither do I think they should. But if they want one over asset sales then they should have one on a CGT.

    Comment by NeilM — March 7, 2012 @ 10:26 am

  32. The way of the future in regards to taxes, is lower personal income taxation and lower company taxation, a reduction in the age of superannuation, but the introduction of a Lotteries Taxation, CGT, Estate Taxation. I also think we need to lower rates and GST.

    Comment by Daniel Lang — March 7, 2012 @ 11:59 am

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