Maybe it’s my built-in left-wing bias, but I found the recent TVNZ poll – which showed National gaining popularity over the first three months of the year – to be simply unbelievable. I don’t think the ACC scandal has really sunk in, but I was pretty sure the Crafer farms issue cost them a lot of votes. So I’ve been waiting for the Morgan poll to see if it confirmed the trend.
It doesn’t. According to Roy Morgan the Nats are on 44%, Labour 30% and the Greens 17%.
The first two results continue the trend showed by their previous polls for the year: National declining, Labour largely static, both of which seem credible to me given recent events: the Nats can’t catch a break, and Shearer’s big speech had minimal impact outside of provoking Gerry Brownlee into creating a diplomatic incident by insulting Finland.
But the Greens on 17%? A 35% increase in three weeks is hard to believe, and I’ll want to see more data before I buy it. If the Greens are surging it’d be interesting to know if it’s because the Nats are losing support to them, or if they’re losing support to Labour, who are then losing left-wing votes to the Greens.