Peter has modified the tracking poll script a little, using an adaptive smoother, with the comment:
It gives slightly more credible results (at the cost of some oversensitive end-effect weirdness)
It’ll be interesting to see what happens next. I think we’re about to see National’s bid to change the conversation, win back the political initiative, set the agenda, all that good stuff – coming at us in the next few days. This may consist of the standard diversion tactics: ‘cracking down’ on whoever, provoking a fight with the unions or Maori or civil liberty groups, or announcing that they’re considering something crazy which they won’t actually do – but I suspect we’ll see something more substantive.