But the latest Roy Morgan (with Labour down and National up, and the Roy Morgan sample size seems to get smaller with each poll, and is now just over 800) finds that Labour/Greens/New Zealand First is likely to win an election.
On current settings, isn’t a National-New Zealand First coalition just as likely as a Labour/Greens/New Zealand First coalition? Possibly more so. Given the dynamics of the coalition talks, in which the Greens would have far more seats than New Zealand First, but Winston Peters would have far more leverage than Russel Norman – because Peters can take his votes to National and Norman can’t – it’s hard to imagine Shearer (or whoever) putting together a functional government that lasts for three years. John Key probably won’t have any other significant coalition partners to worry about. He might have the Conservatives, but they’d probably be a luxury (like United Future during his last term) and they’d be smaller than New Zealand First.