I’ve updated the tracking poll. Interactive version here
Labour’s Cunliffe bounce appears to be real; this (partly) explains the desperate weirdness of the right-wing blogs over the past few weeks.
(We went through a lot of this weirdness when Clark was PM. Did she know her motorcade went over the speed limit? Was her husband arrested overseas?? Did something happen when Winston Peters went to Las Vegas??? National’s bloggers wrote hundreds of thousands of words about these non-issues and the press gallery spent years chasing various conspiracy theories and rumours, and nothing ever came of any of it. Labour tried to copy National’s tactics when it beat up a story about John Key’s (non) involvement in faked foreign transactions – the so-called ‘H-Bomb’ that blew up in Labour’s face. It seems significant to me that the smears and conspiracy theories are instantly back in play after five years of dormancy under the Goff and Shearer interregnums.)
Anyway, back to the poll: The next government could be a Labour-Green coalition. But it could also easily be a National-New Zealand First coalition. Peters is unpredictable though. I kind of suspect that if Labour and the Greens can govern alone he’ll go into government with them. It’ll let him retire from politics with a knighthood and diplomatic posting to London.
In the twenty-two months since the last election roughly 150,000 people have changed their vote from National to Labour. I’d be really curious to know why. Asset sales? Power policy? House prices? Something else? If any swing voters are reading this I’d like to know why you’ve switched support.