I’ve updated the tracking poll. Bias corrected poll here; non-bias corrected poll here. I think it shows the absurdity of yesterday’s Fairfax-Ipsos poll, which has National on >50% and able to govern alone, a direct reversal of the trend of every other poll published in the last few months.
Media organisations spend a ton of money on polling, so when you get an odd result there must be an obvious temptation to make a big story about this very interesting finding that is exclusive to you. But political reporters are supposed to be experts on this stuff, and you’d think they’d look at a poll that shows a huge reversal on other recent polls for no real reason and wonder if their data is valid. Not so the Dom-Post, who stuck their poll on the front page of the paper (‘Poll a major blow to Labour!’) along with a pretty funny story trying to justify their findings:
National is also up two points and holds a huge 17 point lead over Labour, winning the backing of more than 50 per cent of committed voters.
That comes after several high profile overseas trips by Mr Key where he has rubbed shoulders with world leaders and chaired top level trade talks during the Asia Pacific Economic Copoeration summit.
I guess if you cover these trips as a journalist and write lots of stories about them the idea of tens of thousands of voters switching support to National because Key met Vladimir Putin and Susilo Yudhoyono becomes plausible.
So no, I don’t think Labour will be worried about this poll; I do think they’ll be worried about the credibility of the Fairfax gallery pundits, who predicted Grant Robertson to win the leadership contest and now think that National are so popular they’d be governing alone after an election.