This chart shows the aggregated poll results for National vs Labour-Greens adjusted for poll bias: There’s been a bit of talk recently about Winston Peters being ‘Kingmaker’ after the election. But if something like this happens Peters won’t have much power at all. If National polls around 40% and Peters polls around 5-6% then even a National+Peters+ACT+United Future+Maori Party coalition won’t have enough seats in Parliament to form a government. The only viable coalition is Labour+Greens+Peters.
Obviously that changes if National gives an electorate seat to Colin Craig and he pulls in ~2.5%. Then we see the very sane, sensible National-Colin Craig-Winston Peters-ACT-United Future-Maori Party coalition running things.