Updated the tracking poll to include the Herald digi-poll and last Roy Morgan poll, both of which are ‘bad for the left’. Bias corrected version below. Non bias corrected over the break.
What jumps out at me here is the comparison with the last election. Labour are trending down, just like last time – but now their votes are (mostly) going to National, not the Greens. Which makes sense to me: we have no idea what National plans to do in its third term, but that lack of vision is still preferable to being governed by a collection of left-wing parties who all hate each other but want to run the country together.