In the latest Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos political poll, the party has dropped 6 percentage points to 23 per cent. National is soaring on 56 per cent, which would allow it to govern alone.
Obviously this precedes the Liu stuff. My guess is that its a bit of an outlier but still part of the trend of Labour losing votes to National. And I don’t think that’s really Cunliffe’s fault (although obviously he isn’t helping). Like I said the other day, lots of Labour voters seem to be freaked out by Internet/Mana so they’re switching to National. And Internet/Mana look as though they are picking up votes off the Greens.
Now, Internet/Mana might make good on their promise to turn out loads of young low decile voters, which might not show up in the polls but will have a huge impact on the actual election – and good on them if they do. But at this point it looks like the Harawira/Harre/Dotcom contribution to the election will be to cannibalise the left vote and scare the centre vote over to National, possibly gifting them an historic victory.
If the trend continues Labour will have to take a risk (for once) and rule out Internet/Mana from a Labour government.