Peter updated the code to include the Internet/Mana Party so I’ve generated graphs for the smaller parties. The trendline prior to their alliance is the Mana Party, then the Mana Party plus the Internet Party. Then Internet/Mana. Here is the bias corrected graph. Non bias corrected here.
Big difference for New Zelaand First. What we don’t know is whether the polls just prior to the 2011 election underestimated the level of support for New Zealand First or whether the teapot tapes saga swung voters from National to New Zealand First after the sample periods ended. Also, what impact will voter turnout have on that party’s chances of getting back in? He could get the same number of voters, but if turnout is higher still drop below 5%.
Internet/Mana are doing better than I thought they would. Almost exactly level with the Conservatives in the non-correcting graph. (I don’t think Colin Craig’s party will go much higher. I think that in 2011 he was a blank canvas that some Conservative voters could project their own values onto and now he’s a weird, silly canvas.) I have no idea how high Internet/Mana will go. My wild guess about the voter behavior on the left is that the Greens are losing votes to Internet/Mana and Labour are losing votes to the Greens (also, Labour voters are probably switching to undecided). Ordinarily I’d expect Internet/Mana voters to act kind of like Green voters and not actually turn up and vote, but they say they’re pouring their resources into voter turnout so who knows?