The Dim-Post

July 19, 2014

Nah

Filed under: Politics — danylmc @ 9:19 am

Via Hamish Rutherford at Stuff:

[Winston Peters] hinted this week that he may stand in an electorate this year, something he didn’t do in 2011. Although he did not name the seat, the hint was it could be East Coast Bays, where there are persistent rumours that long time local MP Murray McCully could stand aside, with National not fielding a candidate, in a bid to gift the seat to Conservative leader Colin Craig.

“You’ve got political parties who think they can mess around with an electorate . . . They might do that [but] they might be in for a surprise in one of them if they do pull that stunt,” Peters said.

“We have the firepower to hit it on the ground with all the hoardings and the full hundred yards if that’s the case.”

Okay. So a possible outcome of National pulling Murray McCully from the ballot in East Coast Bays and ‘gifting’ it to Colin Craig is that:

  • National loses votes in the centre from voters who don’t like deals, and/or don’t like Colin Craig
  • National loses votes on the right to the Conservative Party
  • Peters wins and National loses a safe seat to Winston Peters
  • Craig doesn’t get a seat so all the votes going to the Conservative Party get lost because they’re under the 5% threshold.

I don’t know how probable all that is. New Zealand First got more votes than the Conservatives in East Coast Bays in 2011, but not a whole lot more. Winston Peters is a phenomenal campaigner though, and he’d be a tempting protest vote for people who don’t like electorate deals who can still party vote National.

Do Key and Joyce want to bet on Colin Craig against Peters? That seems like a really bad bet. I’m guessing that ‘Peters beats Craig’ scenario is so catastrophic that National’s strategists won’t give Craig this seat.

13 Comments »

  1. Matthew Hooton has apparently let slip that National’s internal polling has identified a 2% loss of support for National should they gift Craig East Coast Bays (hat tip to bad12 on The Standard).

    Interesting because the Conservatives are currently on a mere 1.4% poll average (for the last 3 months as a whole) or 1.2% (for the 2 latest polls of July) .And they’re trending down (from a 1.9% average during the first quarter of this year).

    I’ve set out some figures here…http://sub-z-p.blogspot.co.nz/

    Comment by swordfish — July 19, 2014 @ 11:01 am

  2. I’m really at a loss as to why National would entertain the prospect of getting the Conservatives into Parliament. They have a unique opportunity to be a single party government (plus Dunne and that stuffed shirt from Act) and even if they fall one or two seats short, they can still probably wrangle Winston into some sort of arrangement. Whereas the minute they endorse the Conservatives, they own whatever mistakes and blunders the Conservatives make. It is absurd to think that a new party, with no MPs with any experience in Parliament, could smoothly adjust to being in government.

    If I were Steven Joyce, I’d be doing everything possible to paint the Conservatives as too extreme, with National safe and centrist.

    Comment by alex — July 19, 2014 @ 12:22 pm

  3. “It is absurd to think that a new party, with no MPs with any experience in Parliament”

    that describes ACT too though. Sure, the shelf company has existed for a while, but the ‘institutional knowledge’ of ACT isn’t really worth much.

    Comment by Pascal's bookie — July 19, 2014 @ 12:35 pm

  4. Andrew Williams would be a much better bet in ECB for NZ First. He lives there, and he was the former mayor of North Shore (but a shit one).

    Comment by Nick K — July 19, 2014 @ 3:22 pm

  5. he was the former mayor of North Shore (but a shit one).

    So … not really a better bet, then.

    Also, can you imagine Peters allowing another of his MPs to win an electorate seat, thereby (potentially) becoming the foundation for NZ First’s place in Parliament?

    Comment by Flashing Light — July 19, 2014 @ 5:40 pm

  6. Matthew Hooton doesn’t let things slip. He says them quite calculatingly.

    Comment by MeToo — July 19, 2014 @ 7:57 pm

  7. Hooton’s comments were made at the Conservative Party conference where he was guest speaker. Some if his comments have been reproduced in the NZ Herald.

    Comment by MeToo — July 19, 2014 @ 8:10 pm

  8. National only wants the Conservatives in if the election looks close AND the Conservatives are polling around 4%. National doesn’t really want them, they just don’t want their wasted votes to be redistributed to Labour and the Greens. They know they can work with Peter Dunne, ACT and the Maori Party; Craig and any MPs he brings in with him would be like trying to work with Clive Palmer’s PUP.

    Best scenario for National is for Labour to continue to poll like shite.

    Comment by MeToo — July 19, 2014 @ 8:15 pm

  9. “Matthew Hooton has apparently let slip that National’s internal polling has identified a 2% loss of support for National should they gift Craig East Coast Bays (hat tip to bad12 on The Standard).”

    Matthew Hootten has never made an uncalculated political statement in his entire life

    Comment by Tinakori — July 19, 2014 @ 8:39 pm

  10. I don’t think Peters can win East Coast Bays. He’s not that good a campaigner.

    Comment by kalvarnsen — July 19, 2014 @ 8:56 pm

  11. Also, can you imagine Peters allowing another of his MPs to win an electorate seat, thereby (potentially) becoming the foundation for NZ First’s place in Parliament?
    Nah.

    Comment by Joe W — July 19, 2014 @ 9:10 pm

  12. I don’t think Peters can win East Coast Bays. He’s not that good a campaigner.

    Even if he doesn’t win, it will focus the media’s attention on the seat (and him). Is that something National really want to be a major theme in the election coverage?

    Comment by Flashing Light — July 19, 2014 @ 10:34 pm

  13. Peters doesn’t have to win ECB, he just has to keep Craig out and keep media attention on how loopy he is. In the meantime, Peters, a skilful campaigner, would get a teagate’s worth of publicity for himself. It’s win-win for Peters.

    Craig said the other week he sees a big overlap between Conservatives and NZ first supporters and there wasn’t room in Parliament for both of them… He may well be right!

    Comment by MeToo — July 21, 2014 @ 6:32 am


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