The Dim-Post

July 29, 2014

Minor Party pre-campaign pontifications

Filed under: Politics,polls — danylmc @ 7:28 pm

A look at the tracking polls for small parties helps explain what’s been happening over the last few days (larger interactive version here);

smallpartypolls
The Conservatives are only slightly higher than they were last election suggesting they’ll get 2.6% max. Probably less than that now that a seat has been ruled out and Conservative voters who saw their vote wasted back in 2011 might want to see their vote count this time around.

Craig’s strategy this year has been to try and target New Zealand First voters. That’s what National wanted him to do, and maybe there was some understanding that if he succeeded they try and help him out. I dunno. Anyway, it was a terrible strategy: most New Zealand First voters are soft Labour voters and the consequence for Craig attempting to target this unsympathetic demographic are that he’s toast.

I feel ambivalent about that. Sixty-thousand odd people voted for him in 2011, he has more of a mandate than an awful lot of sitting MPs – but the only reason he reached those people was because he happens to be rich. He’s talking about winning East Coast Bays in 2017, but I don’t know how much longer he can go on sinking hundreds of thousands of dollars a year into his political party. (That line from Citizen Kane comes to mind: ‘I did lose a million dollars last year. I expect to lose a million dollars this year. I expect to lose a million dollars *next* year. You know, Mr. Thatcher, at the rate of a million dollars a year, I’ll have to close this place in… 60 years.’ But I don’t think Colin Craig is Charlie Kane rich.)

Anyway, National’s refusal to help out Craig is why we’ve seen a sudden flurry of race-baiting from ACT and New Zealand First. They’re all competing for the same small pool of conservative elderly half-witted red-necks. Hopefully those votes will stick with the Conservatives and be wasted but they might give ACT enough votes to get Whyte into Parliament.

Winston Peters is well ahead of where he was at this point in 2011, and he made it over the 5% threshold very comfortably back then. He’ll be back again. Who will he go into coalition with?

A couple of weeks ago Colin Craig and Jamie Whyte showed up on one of the weekend politics shows, and both of them announced they probably wouldn’t be seeking Cabinet positions in a National government. Now, maybe its a coincidence that both of these political masterminds both had this same odd idea on the same day, but my guess is that it was an order on high from National’s leaders clearing the way for a nice, simple National-New Zealand First coalition. I still hear people saying that Peters is ‘unpredictable’ or that he ‘wants revenge on John Key’. I think the chances of Peters flipping a coin or picking revenge and going with a Labour, Greens, Internet/Mana et al are zero. He’ll be a senior Minister in the 3rd term National government. We might see Peters go even higher during the campaign as older Labour voters decide that Peters will ‘keep National honest’ and switch to him.

Finally, Internet/Mana really seems to have momentum and I think we can assume they’ll win at least one electorate seat, if not two. But it’s really hard to guess how they’ll perform on election day. Are the polls under-sampling all those cellphone only digital natives? Or will most Internet/Mana respondents fail to actually vote? I have no idea.

I do know that I’ve talked to a couple of students who are first-time voters who are ‘voting for Kim Dotcom’. He’s their big asset which is why he’s the headline act at all the Internet/Mana ‘Party Party’ functions. But he’s also, potentially, their biggest liability. Dotcom has promised that he’ll drop a ‘bombshell” on John Key five days before the election but National seems to have a few bombshells of their own that they plan to drop on Dotcom. Internet/Mana know that this is coming and their prominent use of Dotcom indicates they feel they can manage it when it does. We’ll see. It makes their result impossible to predict.

33 Comments »

  1. And Laila Harre is standing against John Key in Helensville. Nice.

    Comment by MeToo — July 29, 2014 @ 7:50 pm

  2. “Craig’s strategy this year has been to try and target New Zealand First voters.., it was a terrible strategy”

    I’m not so sure about this. It didn’t work, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it couldn’t have worked. NZ First represents one of the two largest pools of socially conservative voters in NZ politics (the other is National). For somebody trying to set up a socially conservative party, it’s a pretty natural target – it’d be asking a lot for a new party to go head-to-head with National over its voter base. Craig didn’t really succeed because he’s politically ineffectual, but that’s not a flaw of his strategy, it’s a flaw of his tactics.

    Comment by kalvarnsen — July 29, 2014 @ 7:55 pm

  3. Interesting:

    Not so sure about Winston. Four years ago I discounted him, and he ran a bolter of a campaign. He’s not as fit as he was this time around, and their second string is very thin.

    I think Internet/Mana are going to get around 3%. Call it the Minto affect. Minto is reliably wrong on most issues, and an abrasive git: he generally turns people off. The key is if Kelvin Davies Rolls Harawira. (This is the unofficial deal: the Maori will not really run a candidate, neither will the nats, and instead go for the party vote: Harawira needs them to split their vote to get in).

    Act — is akin to Mana but on the other end of the spectrum. However (a) Epsom voters have voted ACT in three times in a row now and (b) they were smart enough to put Goldsmith in as the candidate — and he’s working on it. One or two MPs (I’d like three: they have some talent).

    Conservatives — like Destiny and whatever the Christian party before that they are dog tucker. There are (thank God) a proportion of serious Christians in our society — I’d estimate it as around ten percent — but many of them will not vote for parties that have been tainted and/or are concerned with social justice or freedom. and spread their votes around

    United Future: will return Dunne, and it will be an overhang.

    The Maori seats? Mana needs one. The Maori party is going to implode this election or the next: Labour will keep the seats they have and may gain the others back.

    Greens are no longer a minor party. Between them and Labour there is a good 40% of the electorate. The Nats have around 45%. We will have at least a 3% wastage (the conservatives, if Harawira and Goldsmith win & NZ first get over 5%) but we could end up with around 15% or even 18% wasted if NZ first get 4.5% and the other parties around 3% and lose the electorate seats they are relying on.

    And the bigger the wastage, the more it plays into the hands of National, as the biggest party in parliament.

    If you are of the Left, your best vote is Labour: if of the right, National. It’s that simple.

    Comment by Chris — July 29, 2014 @ 7:59 pm

  4. @Chris,

    (This is the unofficial deal: the Maori will not really run a candidate, neither will the nats, and instead go for the party vote: Harawira needs them to split their vote to get in).

    National hasn’t run candidates in the Maori seats since … what, 2005? So this is nonsense.

    Comment by Flashing Light — July 29, 2014 @ 8:05 pm

  5. Chris, Goldsmith only seems like the Act candidate in Epsom (he does an excellent job of smearing the National Party candidate by being himself). You mean Seymour.

    Comment by Judge Holden — July 29, 2014 @ 9:13 pm

  6. The key is if Kelvin Davies Rolls Harawira.

    Seems unlikely – note the fury of a couple of my Nat-leaning fellow bloggers at the lack of Kelvin Davis billboards in Northland.

    Comment by Psycho Milt — July 29, 2014 @ 9:16 pm

  7. “He’s not as fit as he was this time around, and their second string is very thin.”

    When has NZ First not had a shallow bench? That’s never held them back before.

    Comment by kalvarnsen — July 29, 2014 @ 9:17 pm

  8. …we’ve seen a sudden flurry of race-baiting from ACT and New Zealand First. They’re all competing for the same small pool of conservative elderly half-witted red-necks.

    Amusing as that line is, I don’t think ACT are competing for that pool at all – their voters are, like Whyte himself, almost universally way smart enough to know better than Maori-bashing. (Which, if anything, makes it worse…)

    Comment by Psycho Milt — July 29, 2014 @ 9:23 pm

  9. National seems to have a few bombshells of their own that they plan to drop on Dotcom

    I suspect that for his emerging core electorate, most of the “crimes of Kim Dotcom” will actually be a recommendation.

    Unless they can prove him to be a paedophile joint member of the National Front and Al Qaeda, or something. And if that’s the case, surely ACT would have snapped him up as a candidate years ago?

    Comment by richdrich — July 29, 2014 @ 9:26 pm

  10. @Chris: “United Future: will return Dunne, and it will be an overhang.”

    I’m cautious about assuming this.

    Peter Dunne is a polarising candidate these days. He’s only scraped through to win Ōhariu in the last couple of elections, and that’s been after National’s conveniently left Katrina Shanks as a candidate to suck up all the “I really hate Peter Dunne” votes, many of which would probably otherwise have gone to Chauvel, despite the National Party instructing its supporters to vote for Dunne. In 2008 she pulled in 10,000 votes, and still came third! In 2011 she still neutralised 6,900 Dunne-hating votes, despite only campaigning for the Party Vote. As she won’t be running this election, exactly how things go for Dunne might be less predictible.

    Comment by izogi — July 29, 2014 @ 9:44 pm

  11. ACT, NZ First & Cons tearing themselves up over a limited lame voter pool and how we laugh. Though dont forget comrades there will be a million people who wont vote in September. Are these million some other party’s failure?

    These million should be on a tracking polling graph to remind all Statist of the diminished mandate of National, labour & Greens etc.

    Comment by Simon — July 30, 2014 @ 6:30 am

  12. You’re right about IMP being impossible to predict. It’ll be really interesting to see.

    Mathew Beveridge sent me an article where Dotcom claimed their internal polling, including cells and an online sample, had them at 4.8%.

    I did some quick and dirty calculations, and assuming the same voting rate among landline and non-landline voters (won’t happen), in an election held in the last couple of weeks IMP would have needed around 23% support among non-landline voters to cross 5%.

    All the polls will largely miss Dotcom’s ‘bombshell’ 5 days before the election, so they may well miss the mark for IMP.

    Comment by Andrew — July 30, 2014 @ 7:35 am

  13. “National seems to have a few bombshells of their own that they plan to drop on ”

    Hang on a minute. Hasn’t National (and you) said that if Dotcom had any bombshells he would have dropped them by now? But apparently National is happy to keep it’s powder dry until nearer the election. Okaaaaay.

    Comment by Ross — July 30, 2014 @ 7:50 am

  14. Unless they can prove him to be a paedophile joint member of the National Front and Al Qaeda, or something.

    Some of the rumours are really, really awful. But there are always rumours in election year, and mostly they don’t come to anything.

    Comment by danylmc — July 30, 2014 @ 8:45 am

  15. “National seems to have a few bombshells of their own that they plan to drop on ”

    But I thought the media were high minded enough to call time on gotcha politics? Do you mean John Armstrong lied to us?

    Key will – with the help of his mates Farrar and Slater laundering his smears into the media – undoubtably try and dismiss Greenwald the way he did Jon Stephenson. Boag was at it yesterday on RNZ. It was funny listening to that blustering old has-been Waiheke blowhard and small time political hack attacking Greenwald! But it seems to me the best approach to “bombshells” is to simply do what Winston Peters does – use them as proof of the media conspiracy he was talking about. Having Farrar and Slater throw shit supplied from state security agencies acting as agents of the governing party will easy to deflect, IMHO. Of course, Gower and co will join in, because like all good pack hunting cowards they love the chance to gang up on someone but I doubt that will impress the IMP supporters, who are disengaged from traditional media anyway.

    Comment by Sanctuary — July 30, 2014 @ 8:45 am

  16. And here’s the article Matthew Beveridge sent me about Dotcom’s internal polling.

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-28/web-tycoon-dotcom-says-he-ll-reach-5-in-new-zealand-election.html

    Comment by Andrew — July 30, 2014 @ 8:56 am

  17. I do know that I’ve talked to a couple of students who are first-time voters who are ‘voting for Kim Dotcom’

    I remember, not so long ago, when Vic students were politically literate. In any case, I suspect we will find that the IMP has been consistently understated in the polls – though probably not so much as to bring Minto in (thankfully).

    Comment by Auto_Immune — July 30, 2014 @ 10:07 am

  18. “…I remember, not so long ago, when Vic students were politically literate…”

    Politically active, but not literate. Student politics is about idealism, where you may engage in gusto if not necessarily wisely. It seems to me being all dewy eyed about the future, and the internet, and freedom and voting for Kim Dotcom falls squarely into that tradition. Personally, I would rather they idealistically (if unwisely) voted for a Kim Dotcom because they consider him relevant than have them simply not bother or care. At the end of the day, that is what student politics should be all about,

    Comment by Sanctuary — July 30, 2014 @ 11:33 am

  19. @Auto_Immune: “I remember, not so long ago, when Vic students were politically literate.”

    I remember a winning majoriy of maybe 2% of Vic students voting for a pot plant to be the head of VUWSA in the late 90s.

    Comment by izogi — July 30, 2014 @ 11:47 am

  20. ‘Voting for Kim Dotcom’ implies that these voters think they’re going to actually get Dotcom throwing dance parties in the Beehive and letting off truth bombs in Parliament, when they’re actually getting Laila and Annette Sykes, who are more likely to link arms and sing ‘Joe Hill’. Discovering this will be a good way for young people to learn about politics.

    Comment by danylmc — July 30, 2014 @ 12:02 pm

  21. “…I remember a winning majoriy of maybe 2% of Vic students voting for a pot plant to be the head of VUWSA in the late 90s…”

    I can just see Paddy Gower quizzing a newly elected pot plant on it’s Co2 emissions.

    Comment by Sanctuary — July 30, 2014 @ 12:10 pm

  22. I always thought student politics went like this: The local ACT on campus masquerading as the young Nats take advantage of general apathy to get Vincent Rouge-Joues elected, only for young Labour to wake up and via a series of constitutionally dubious measures they get the ACT guy dumped, to be replaced by Deborah Killjoy, whose program of replacing boozing events with feminist awareness classes ensures she is so wildly unpopular that she in in turn is ousted by the patriarchy in a palace coup by a bunch of zealous self-styled Maoists from the polsci department, who then immediately fall into factional in-fighting over some matter of dogma or another, at which point the pot plant serves as a compromise candidate.

    Twenty years later, they all repeat their roles as grown ups neo-liberals in the National and Labour parties, with John Key acting as a pot plant that can’t recall it’s stance on any issue while at sitting in the student union office.

    Comment by Sanctuary — July 30, 2014 @ 12:25 pm

  23. I always thought student politics went like this…

    That’s because you are old. Student politics today goes “I am the more competent manager of student resources who can cultivate the best relationship with the University (and I’ll arrange more dance parties)”, against “I’m the more competent manager of student resources who can cultivate the best relationship with the University (and I’ll arrange more cheap movie nights)”.

    Comment by Andrew Geddis — July 30, 2014 @ 1:32 pm

  24. I can just see Paddy Gower quizzing a newly elected pot plant on it’s Co2 emissions.

    To which the plant would presumably reply “As a Green by necessity, I restrict my CO2 emissions to hours of darkness.”
    Then (hopefully) it would lash Paddy with its venomous prehensile stinger and consume his twitching body, before One News crossed to the sports desk.

    Comment by Gregor W — July 30, 2014 @ 1:54 pm

  25. Nationals deal with ACT goes two ways. Act is NOT standing in electorates where national is threatened, especially Napier and Maungakiekie.
    Perhaps Colin Craig wouldnt play nice for THAT game so he was given the cold shoulder.

    Comment by ghostwhowalksnz — July 30, 2014 @ 2:35 pm

  26. “I remember a winning majority of maybe 2% of Vic students voting for a pot plant to be the head of VUWSA in the late 90s.”

    Well he won didn’t he, and now he is number 3 in the Labour Party rankings, if my memory serves me correctly.
    All hail Grant Robertson, pot plant extraordinaire.

    Comment by alwyn — July 30, 2014 @ 2:42 pm

  27. “before One News crossed to the sports desk.”

    who ccross back live to watch the sport, I should hope..

    Comment by Pascal's bookie — July 30, 2014 @ 3:40 pm

  28. Is there any chance the good burghers of Clutha-Southland will throw Act another lifeline and vote Don Nicholson over young master Mr Barclay? I have been wondering whether this was another very quiet accomodation since Nicholsons candiature was announced in the wake of all the eye rolling over the tobbaco lobbyist in short pants getting the nod.

    Comment by jonocarpenter — July 30, 2014 @ 3:41 pm

  29. Izogi: “I remember a winning majority of maybe 2% of Vic students voting for a pot plant to be the head of VUWSA in the late 90s.”

    Alwyn Well he won didn’t he, and now he is number 3 in the Labour Party rankings, if my memory serves me correctly.
    All hail Grant Robertson, pot plant extraordinaire.

    Chris Hipkins, surely?
    Grant Robertson was Otago, in the early 90s.

    Comment by kahikatea — July 30, 2014 @ 3:54 pm

  30. jonocarpenter asked “Is there any chance the good burghers of Clutha-Southland will throw Act another lifeline and vote Don Nicholson over young master Mr Barclay?”

    no chance of that – Don Nicolson is really not a very competent candidate at all. He stood 3 years ago, and got only a third as many votes as the youthful and heavily-tattoed Green candidate Rachael Goldsmith, despite being a former head of Federated Farmers standing in a farming-oriented electorate.

    Comment by kahikatea — July 30, 2014 @ 3:59 pm

  31. Peters turns 70 in April next year. Were he to lead NZF into a 2017 election, he would be looking at 42 years since he first entered Parliament, and retirement in his mid 70s. That seems unlikely.

    Student politics today goes “I am the more competent manager of student resources who can cultivate the best relationship with the University (and I’ll arrange more dance parties)”, against “I’m the more competent manager of student resources who can cultivate the best relationship with the University (and I’ll arrange more cheap movie nights)”.

    Also, I have a more beautiful smile .

    they’re actually getting Laila and Annette Sykes, who are more likely to link arms and sing ‘Joe Hill’. Discovering this will be a good way for young people to learn about politics.

    They might finally get their universal student allowances.

    Comment by George — July 30, 2014 @ 4:00 pm

  32. Izogi @3.54pm.

    Yes I think you are right, when I consider it properly. Grant would be a bit old to have been a Student Association President in the late 1990s anyway. It wasn’t meant seriously of course and he was the only one I could think of who I knew had been in such a job.

    On the other hand Chris Hipkins, from the look of him, must have been in nappies in 1999 or so. My wife is jealous. She wants to know how he got the gift of eternal youth.

    Comment by alwyn — July 30, 2014 @ 5:34 pm

  33. Sorry my preceding comment was to kahikatea not Izogi.

    Comment by alwyn — July 30, 2014 @ 5:37 pm


RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: