These charts correct for poll bias. First the large parties:
And the rest:
So two weeks out I predict:
- Epsom won’t bother to vote for David Seymour and ACT will be gone from Parliament.
- Internet/Mana will win one or two electorate seats and either two or three MPs.
- The Conservatives will probably cross the 5% threshold.
- New Zealand First will be comfortably above the threshold.
- If the Conservatives make it then National might be able to form a government without New Zealand First in it. Which I think they’d rather do. Something tells me Winston Peters would quite like to be Justice Minister.