The Dim-Post

September 5, 2014

Tracking polls

Filed under: Politics,polls — danylmc @ 9:20 am

These charts correct for poll bias. First the large parties:

pollslarge

And the rest:

pollssmall

 

So two weeks out I predict: 

  • Epsom won’t bother to vote for David Seymour and ACT will be gone from Parliament. 
  • Internet/Mana will win one or two electorate seats and either two or three MPs. 
  • The Conservatives will probably cross the 5% threshold. 
  • New Zealand First will be comfortably above the threshold. 
  • If the Conservatives make it then National might be able to form a government without New Zealand First in it. Which I think they’d rather do. Something tells me Winston Peters would quite like to be Justice Minister. 

 

53 Comments »

  1. United 0.1% Future aren’t even on this chart.

    Comment by George — September 5, 2014 @ 9:23 am

  2. The Greens will also be disappointed if they get less than 14%. Three years of consistent performance (not faultless, but solid), a strong election campaign, and the collapse of a Labour Party that chose not to present a united Government-in-waiting.

    Comment by George — September 5, 2014 @ 9:27 am

  3. Not sure about your Epsom comment though- have you seen specific polling on that electorate? But yes the rest is spot on: looks like Nats who are disgusted by DirtyPolitics have fled to NZ 1st but mainly Colin “cray-cray” Craig?

    Comment by mutyala — September 5, 2014 @ 9:30 am

  4. Danyl, do you have data on Labour’s support in say, the last five polls before Shearer resigned?

    Comment by Matthew Hooton — September 5, 2014 @ 9:37 am

  5. Last time it looked like the polls started to agree with each other a bit more in the final two weeks prior to the election. Wonder if that will happen this time? They’re all over the place at the moment.

    By the way – I’m pretty confident TV3 is now using a leaner (they didn’t prior to the last election). This should bring their result for National down a bit relative to how they were polling last time.

    Comment by Andrew — September 5, 2014 @ 9:37 am

  6. Mutyala – you are right. We’ll do what we’re told.

    Comment by Matthew Hooton — September 5, 2014 @ 9:38 am

  7. I think the people of Epsom will be very confused when they turn up to vote for Jamie Whyte and it actually says David Seymour on the paper…

    Comment by Michael — September 5, 2014 @ 9:40 am

  8. Andrew, NZ pollsters don’t ask for leans, do they? I thought they were consistent with intention.

    Comment by George — September 5, 2014 @ 9:40 am

  9. George: The Fairfax report specifically states separate results after leans taken into account (Nats 2% down after leans): http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/polls/10461903/National-soars-without-Collins-poll

    Comment by lefty — September 5, 2014 @ 9:48 am

  10. Danyl, do you have data on Labour’s support in say, the last five polls before Shearer resigned?

    They were averaging 32% just before Shearer resigned, and they were trending down. They got a huge bump up to 37% after the leadership contest and Cunliffe’s election and they stayed high for a while. Then there was the thing with the trusts, very poor comms management, Cunliffe’s caucus started leaking against him, and Internet/Mana scared the shit out of everyone.

    Comment by danylmc — September 5, 2014 @ 9:50 am

  11. Dim-Post-ometer is …

    – wrong about Epsom
    – right about Internet/Mana
    – wrong about the Conservatives
    – right about NZ First

    Last one? I’d still pick National plus Winston as the most likely path to a majority. Then Key will be outa here before the Royal Commisssion reports in 2015.

    Comment by sammy 2.0 — September 5, 2014 @ 9:55 am

  12. To add: I’d quite like there to be a National-Conservative government. Our closest flirtation with fascism since Sid Holland. Garth McVicar as Minister of Justice. At least then we’d find out what we’re really like, and get rid of all the advertising guff about punching above weight to be super cool trendy nuke-free world leaders. No more homos, provincial boufheads rule! Veitchy for president!

    Comment by sammy 2.0 — September 5, 2014 @ 10:04 am

  13. …as the dairy payout and the dollar drops and the Auckland bubble bursts. Even if the left scrape a win, poisoned chalice much? At least the exporters might be happy

    Comment by jonocarpenter — September 5, 2014 @ 10:21 am

  14. Epsom won’t bother to vote for David Seymour and ACT will be gone from Parliament.

    Epsom should bother to vote for Seymour! He’s looking like a possible overhang seat, which effectively requires 2 two Centre-Left votes to cancel out. You’d be mad not to (if you’re an Epsomite who wants National back in office, that is).

    Comment by Andrew Geddis — September 5, 2014 @ 10:29 am

  15. At least the exporters might be happy

    Our exports are now 25% milk. A loss to dairy is a loss to the export sector – the upside is more limited than it would otherwise have been.

    Comment by George — September 5, 2014 @ 10:51 am

  16. Reblogged this on Talking Auckland and commented:
    The first time that the prospects of a National-Conservative Coalition have become serious and a possibility.

    Now if you think the Centre Left mess is a monster then the thought of the Nat’s and Conservatives in power make me shudder and think of US Tea Party nuttiness that have dogged the Republicans for years.

    Comment by Ben Ross - Talking Auckland — September 5, 2014 @ 10:53 am

  17. I understand John Key is to reappoint Judith Collins to the Cabinet tomorrow so he can sack her again in the last week and get another poll bump

    Comment by Tinakori — September 5, 2014 @ 10:53 am

  18. I doubt David Shearer would have fared any better, they’d only just started to death-ride him when he resigned.

    His time spent in the world’s conflict-zones taught him when to get the hell out of dodge.

    Comment by Ant — September 5, 2014 @ 11:02 am

  19. Internet Mana will win two-three MPs, or two-three LIST MPs? Because the polls say that John Minto MP is a real, and hilarious, possibility.

    Comment by Doloras LaPicho — September 5, 2014 @ 11:03 am

  20. Anyway, wouldn’t suprise me that Labour is falling to bits. They don’t stand for anything except “not National”. But there are now leftish (Green/I-M) and rightish (NZF/Bozo Colin) flavours of “not-National” who are credible.

    Comment by Doloras LaPicho — September 5, 2014 @ 11:05 am

  21. @Doloras: Polls are suggesting 3 MPs are the best bet, which would mean Hone, Laila and Annette, with Minto missing out (he’s #4).

    It is looking more and more likely that Conservatives might get across the line (as well as NZFirst). It’ll be most interesting if Conservatives drop just below and there’s 4 and a bit percent of wasted vote – enough perhaps to trigger more widespread support at lowering the threshold?

    Comment by lefty — September 5, 2014 @ 11:34 am

  22. The polls are as useful as a cloudy crystal ball to a gypsy fortune teller.

    Jim Bolger famously said “Bugger the polls” as they were so inaccurate in 1993.

    The last few elections show that there is a distinct trend in their inaccuracy.

    The problem lies with the polling process. They are all dependent upon willing respondents at a landline that has been selected at random from White Pages.

    If a person is willing and in the required age band their response is taken as a valid expression for the sample.

    The number of listed landlines is dropping significantly.

    In a matching process between the electronic white pages and the electoral roll conducted in 2011 and again in 2014 the number of matched landlines dropped by 200,000 to less than half the number on the roll (at 21 August there are 3,031,360 enrolled, 1.3 million matched). The match is by surname and residential address.

    Herein lies the problem. Landlines tend to be concentrated in the older age groups and more stable suburbs. Thus the sample is skewed and will get worse.

    That the media can take the polls seriously is a sad commentary on their ability to be led by the nose.

    Aotea.Ian

    Comment by aoteaian — September 5, 2014 @ 11:59 am

  23. Always enjoy your poll average charts. Had a bit of an explore of Fairfax relative to the rest this morning, only to realise that Roy Morgan probably carry undue weight, because they poll more frequently shamelss plug

    Comment by James — September 5, 2014 @ 12:21 pm

  24. Considering the net party’s target audience I would consider that there is a distinct possibility that the poll bias we usually see will be more pronounced for them. Also we do not have a previous reference point to judge this at all.

    Might be a pleasant surprise for them in the actual count – assuming the notoriously vote-lazy youth can be bothered.

    It will definitely be an interesting one to watch.

    Comment by Peter Tenby — September 5, 2014 @ 12:50 pm

  25. Mad prognostication alert! – My magical tealeaves see Winston surprising us all and switching left to form a minority govt. with Lab/Green after the surprising result on the night leaves Nat/Cons/Act a few seats short (Dunne out) and neither, leaving IMP with over 5% and Flavell if he gets in sitting x-benches but supportive on confidence and supply.

    I’m not sure whether I would prefer this to seeing a govt made up of Nat/Act/Cons/MP with a wafer thin majority for the lunacy value alone. I get the feeling Craig is a timebomb, which could provide enormous entertainment over the next couple of years.

    Comment by Gregor W — September 5, 2014 @ 12:50 pm

  26. I pick apathy to be the winner on the day with a voter turn out of 70 %

    Comment by Jimmy — September 5, 2014 @ 3:33 pm

  27. Gregor W: “My magical tealeaves see Winston surprising us all and switching left to form a minority govt. with Lab/Green”

    If that actually happens, wait for the bleating about a party which didn’t have the highest number of votes leading the government — 2008 all over again. How DARE they!

    Comment by izogi — September 5, 2014 @ 4:40 pm

  28. (Sorry, 2005 [not 2008] if that wasn’t obvious.) 🙂

    Comment by izogi — September 5, 2014 @ 4:41 pm

  29. I was very confused by this headline because to me “Tories” has always referred to the National party.

    I remember my grandfather talking about how, in the 70s, his workmates had given him a hard time for being a “two bob tory” because he supported Muldoon.

    Comment by kalvarnsen — September 5, 2014 @ 5:15 pm

  30. “I get the feeling Craig is a time bomb,….”

    Yep, the Clive Palmer of NZ politics.

    “….to me “Tories” has always referred to the National party.”

    The only people who refer to National as Tories in the modern world are rather sad and old-fashioned left wing political obsessives who inhabit a mental space located in the UK. No civilian talks about Tories in the NZ context. Now that I think of it I can’t remember a Green politician using the term either even through Russel Norman is a very traditional old-fashioned left winger. Maybe the Green Greens are having an impact on him?

    Comment by Tinakori — September 5, 2014 @ 5:30 pm

  31. @Tinakori: The guys I knew who used it were a bunch of South Christchurch furniture makers. Doesn’t get more ‘civilian’ than that.

    Comment by kalvarnsen — September 5, 2014 @ 6:29 pm

  32. “Tory” comes from the Irish word tóraí which means robber or brigand. An entirely appropriate term for John Key’s government’s predilection for transferring wealth from ordinary kiwis to the wealthy. Wealth transfer is the National Party’s kaupapa. If you view their decisions over the last 6 years then they fall into two categories: 1) Transfer of wealth to the wealthy (e.g 2009 tax cuts, current promise to spend 100 million on buying land around waterways) or 2) whatever it takes to stay in power (not killing KiwiSaver or Working for Families).

    They only have two modes: Wealth Transfer or Power Preservation.

    What a nasty party.

    Comment by Mikaere Curtis — September 5, 2014 @ 9:12 pm

  33. Epsom also has the wild card of Christine Rankin, but initial polling suggests her impact is limited so far. Still, she is a natural fit for Epsom’s gated community world-view.

    And speaking as a ‘cord cutter’ who has broadband & a smartphone but no landline, I also believe that with the possible exception of Roy Morgan, pollsters have fallen behind the digital times.

    Comment by Kumara Republic (@kumararepublic) — September 5, 2014 @ 9:42 pm

  34. Mostly I’ve heard the word ‘tory’ used by liberal National Party supporters, who want to avoid using the words ‘conservative’ or ‘right-wing’ in describing their political leaning.

    Comment by Can of Worms, Opened — September 5, 2014 @ 10:15 pm

  35. I’ve never understood the benefit of associating oneself or others with labels at all, including ‘left’ and ‘right’, except that it’s a great way of dumbing down what should be an incredibly diverse range of political views into a one-dimensional line, and maybe that can be used to set up a straw-man when attacking others.

    But it’s as bad when people do it voluntarily, letting their chosen label decide what they should think, and what they suppose everyone else “like them” must think. Like when @Graham came by and said “I am a Tory so don’t care [about Nicky Hager’s book]”.

    It really doesn’t help, imho.

    Comment by izogi — September 5, 2014 @ 10:35 pm

  36. @Gregor W
    ” I get the feeling Craig is a timebomb, which could provide enormous entertainment over the next couple of years.”

    Couldn’t you just write some fiction to play out your fantasies? I’d much prefer a competent and honest government.

    Comment by Joshua Petyt — September 5, 2014 @ 10:51 pm

  37. ““Tory” comes from the Irish word tóraí which means robber or brigand.”

    The Conservative use of “Tory” has more to do with their historical support for the arguably crypto-Catholic Stuart dynasty than with their being thieves. And for that matter, the smearing of the historical “Tories” as “bandits” is a product of the English establishment. I think you’ll find the historical Tories were land reformers and anti-imperialist insurgents, not capitalists. But thanks for the boilerplate anti-National rant spiced up with some Wikipedia-generated research! Are you going to tell us that the term “Whig” comes from the Scottish Whigamoors?

    Comment by kalvarnsen — September 6, 2014 @ 12:30 am

  38. @izogi: In my experience those who conspicuously eskew political labels do so because they like to regard themselves as fearless free thinkers that smash intellectual boundaries and defy categorisation, when their views are usually completely predictable, and their self-assessment as beyond political philosophy is simply a product of ignorance and arrogance – in varying quantities, admittedly.

    Comment by kalvarnsen — September 6, 2014 @ 12:32 am

  39. Gee, I hadn’t meant to strike a nerve.

    They’re just labels after all, and labels have their uses. But it’s when the labels start to get used to define people for all sorts of ends that I disagree. It should be the other way around.

    Comment by izogi — September 6, 2014 @ 1:00 am

  40. I’ve been living in the UK for several years now, but I do recall plenty of people using the word “tory” in reference to National Party. Mainly because I grew up in a tory household and had that label applied to me/them by “civilians”. That being said, it was used by older people.

    I’ll also note a lot of people, media and politicos included spend time in the UK on their OE/holiday, so it is hardly surprising that people in NZ still use terms that might be more accurately applied in the UK than NZ. This doesn’t make us sad, it just means that we reflect our environment.

    Comment by Juan Incognito (@juanincognito) — September 6, 2014 @ 1:51 am

  41. #35: And a lot of US Republicans didn’t care about Woodward & Bernstein – initially. Watergate took a short while to become truly explosive; the subsequent denials and obstructions of justice were the real saboteurs of Tricky Dick’s presidential career. Then again, the Internet was still a military research project back in Nixon’s day, so news didn’t travel quite as fast.

    Comment by Kumara Republic (@kumararepublic) — September 6, 2014 @ 1:55 am

  42. @Izogi: Do you know anybody who knowingly reduces their identity to that of a label? Or are you just arguing with a position that nobody actually holds?

    Comment by kalvarnsen — September 6, 2014 @ 2:53 am

  43. Kalvarnsen – doesn’t surprise that much. Christchurch is the most class conscious city in the nation.

    Comment by Tinakori — September 6, 2014 @ 6:15 am

  44. Gregor W and Izogi – A Labour/Greens/NZF/IMP coalition with a tiny majority would be a disaster for the left and MMP. A government lead by Cunliffe (from a party with ~25% of the vote) in coalition with Hone and Winston would fall apart within a year – we’d be lucky not to end up with a hard-right government and FPP by 2017.

    http://nzperspective.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/the-new-zealand-left-needs-to-lose-this-election/

    Comment by samcorbettdavies — September 6, 2014 @ 7:22 am

  45. @Tinakori: Which is bad, I’m guessing, from what you said earlier.

    Comment by kalvarnsen — September 6, 2014 @ 8:20 am

  46. samcorbettdavies – I didn’t suggest a Labour/Greens/NZF/IMP coalition government. I hypothesised a Labour/Greens/NZF coalition government.

    Also, any talk of a genuinely reactionary government in NZ is a little overblown IMO let alone a return to FPP within 3 years (which I assume is hyperbole).

    Comment by Gregor W — September 6, 2014 @ 8:21 am

  47. Kalveren bravely self-illuminates and lights up my world:” In my experience those who conspicuously eskew political labels do so because they like to regard themselves as fearless free thinkers that smash intellectual boundaries and defy categorisation, when their views are usually completely predictable, and their self-assessment as beyond political philosophy is simply a product of ignorance and arrogance “

    Comment by paritutu — September 6, 2014 @ 8:22 am

  48. “…The only people who refer to National as Tories in the modern world…”

    I think you need to get out more. “Tory” in New Zealand is quite widely used on the left as a pejorative, especially when someone wishes to indicate a right winger has put on air and graces and attitudes normally associated with British toffs. The right never uses it, which indicates that in this country (and Australia), “Tory” is generally regarded as an insult.

    Comment by Sanctuary — September 6, 2014 @ 9:41 am

  49. This idea that the more parties a government contains, the more unstable it is, hasn’t been born out by recent political history. Since 1996 we’ve had:

    One centre-right two party coalition (National and NZ First)
    One centre-right three minority coalition (National, Mauri Pacific, Mana Wahine) with support from ACT
    One centre-left two party coalition (Labour and the Alliance)
    One centre-left two party minority coalition (Labour and Progressives) with support from United Future
    One centre-left two party minority coalition (Labour and Progressives) with support from United Future and NZ First
    One centre-right minority government with support from ACT and the Maori Party

    Of all those governments, the only one that didn’t manage to last a full three year term was the first one – the one with the least parties involved.

    While I can’t predict that a Labour-Greens-NZ First-IMP coalition would be politically successful, I could definitely see it hanging together for three years.

    Comment by kalvarnsen — September 6, 2014 @ 9:42 am

  50. samcorbettdavies #42: On the one hand I’d prefer Cunliffe to be PM. On the other hand, if Jesse Colombo is proven right and the NZ housing bubble pops, then I’d prefer Key to be forced to deal with the public discontent that follows. I was reading somewhere – and I forget which site it was – that whoever wins the White House in 2016 could be out of power for a generation, because the winner could be holding a poisoned chalice.

    Comment by Kumara Republic (@kumararepublic) — September 6, 2014 @ 3:36 pm

  51. ” I was reading somewhere – and I forget which site it was – that whoever wins the White House in 2016 could be out of power for a generation”

    They said that about the 2008 election, too.

    Comment by kalvarnsen — September 6, 2014 @ 7:36 pm

  52. Can I just say, fuck all that noise asking people to help the left lose? Because that’s classic right-wing propaganda.

    The National party is begging for votes with their mailers. They want power for more of the same employee bashing, kicking the poor, and billions more for the rich, and they’re not even slightly worried it’ll hurt them in future. Labour is trying to win, the Greens are trying to win, they want your vote. National is likewise trying to win and wants your vote.

    If the housing bubble pops, the banks get bailed out, you spend like you stole it, you’ve saved the economy, and you’re in power for a generation. Only it can be the left, so everyone gets a piece. Which you might care to vote for.

    Comment by tussock — September 10, 2014 @ 4:05 pm

  53. Anyhoo. I’ve been playing with the numbers myself.

    Fairfax-Ipsos is not helping find the trend. They do roughly follow the basic trend lines, so they’re really doing polling work, it’s just that over time they grow more in favour of National relative to all the other companies. They average around +4% vs Roy Morgan for National at the same times, but it’s +1% two years out and +7% at election time. The +6% trend they add to the data is, let’s say “not using compatible methods”, as is the downward trend they give every other party.

    3News-TNS sometimes makes a step adjustment to their bias for election year, over the summer break. It’s clear in the 2008 polling and the 2014 polling. It’s shifted National down ~2% and Labour up ~1% this time. I haven’t nailed down the shift, but that’s when it happens, and that’s close to it.

    1News-CB seems to have the most consistent bias across recent elections, getting Labour about right and National at +4% (+/-0.3%).

    Assuming Colmar Brunton’s trends remain similar to the last three elections, the bias for National party numbers this cycle from other companies (who do vary a little more).
    Roy Morgan ~+1.8%, 3News-TNS ~+2.5% (for 2014, ~+4.5% previous), Herald-Digi ~+4.7%.

    That shows TNS is a couple points better (in 2014), and Digipoll is a couple points worse than last cycle.

    The bias for the Labour party numbers this cycle
    Roy Morgan ~-1.0%, 3News-TNS ~-0.1% (for 2014, ~-1.1% previous), Herald-Digi ~+0.1%.

    Roy Morgan was also -1.0% (+/-0.1%) for Labour in 2008 and 2011, so that fits, everyone else has got them about right. The unknown is really the bias on National. The standard deviation on the National data points against the trend curve is 1.5x Labour’s, which implies they’re around the mid to high 40’s, and may show Colmar Brunton has fixed their bias (and thus everyone else is better too). We’ll find out on the day, give or take for substantial polling shifts on the day (or even in the last week, which most polls can’t catch).

    Note, those numbers are for making everyone’s data fit the same curve. Any particular poll is still +-3%, plus any real voting shift afterward (-2% on election day for National in 2011).

    You know National could still drop to 40%? Even ignoring the poll bias they’ll end up at 44-46, their polling is looking more and more like the previous two elections as the wandering undecided pick a minor party. Interesting times.

    Comment by tussock — September 12, 2014 @ 1:56 pm


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