The Dim-Post

September 17, 2014

Brief Winston Peters predictions for the record

Filed under: Politics — danylmc @ 5:27 pm

If he’s returned to Parliament and holds the balance of power after the election, Winston Peters:

  • Will not support a Labour/Greens government
  • Will not sit on the cross-benches
  • Will be a senior Minister in a National government
  • Will not deliver any of his ‘bottom lines’ as part of his coalition deal

 

29 Comments »

  1. In other words, a rerun of the Shipley-Peters Govt? And just as lame-duck and precarious?

    Comment by Kumara Republic (@kumararepublic) — September 17, 2014 @ 5:30 pm

  2. Speaker?

    Comment by e-clectic — September 17, 2014 @ 6:03 pm

  3. @Kumara: I think both Winston and the Nats have got better at coalition management since then. Question is, will it lead to another collapse in support for NZF? I’d imagine so, although perhaps not quite as precipitously (although I doubt they’ll get as high as 13% this election, so they won’t have such heights to tumble from).

    Comment by kalvarnsen — September 17, 2014 @ 6:05 pm

  4. Thanks for the depressing assessment.

    Comment by Andrew R — September 17, 2014 @ 6:10 pm

  5. I’m putting my money on his vanity, he won’t risk his image or legacy on a potentially dirty National led government.

    Comment by Ant — September 17, 2014 @ 6:24 pm

  6. I hope not & I hope that Conserves don’t get 5%. My prediction is Labour NZ First with Greens inside or probably outside. iMana confidence & supply. I just hope Winston doesn’t want to compete with Key for ego space & wants to leave NZ with a better legacy than propping up a dirty govt.

    He have a better chance of getting most of his policies enacted with Labour Greens. Winston want to buy back assets & raise the min. wage to $17 ( Labour $16, Greens $18).

    I

    Comment by flotsy — September 17, 2014 @ 6:27 pm

  7. I’m not so sure. Last time Winston tried to moderate the Neolibs they ran right over him, it didn’t exactly work for him. He may negotiate a coalition with Key, but Key will very likely be rolled within the first year, and once he is gone all bets are off as to how popular National will be. Likely Winston and the Nats will go down together in that scenario. Whether Winston cares about his political future or legacy is unknown at this point though. He might just take the baubles that National offers and enjoy the good times for as long as they last. Or he may not. I’m still optimistic for the left.

    Comment by Matty — September 17, 2014 @ 6:32 pm

  8. Winston has never been particularly interested in policies of other than the very simple variety – more money for aged care home operators, more money for the racing industry, the gold card etc. He is probably too old to want another stint as Foreign Minister with the constant travel. I suspect he would try to negotiate the PM’s job or Deputy PM in a largely ceremonial role – such as when he was Treasurer. He would appreciate being PM of a government with Cunliffe as Minister of Finance with the Greens singing back up and without Ministerial portfolios.

    Don Brash has recounted when he was Governor of the Reserve Bank and had taken careful note of what NZ First wanted in monetary policy during the 1996 campaign. Like a good public servant he turned up for his first meeting with the Treasurer with some ideas on how to implement the new policies only to find that it was the last thing on Winston’s mind and nothing was ever heard of those policies again – until the next election when they were given another run around the political block. While Winston might be PM of a centre left government he has more chance of lasting three years in a lesser role in a National-led government. It would be wonderfully funny if the net impact of Nicky Hager, Kim Dotcom and co was to replace a liberal National government with a more conservative one.

    Comment by Tinakori — September 17, 2014 @ 6:58 pm

  9. ” Key will very likely be rolled within the first year, and once he is gone all bets are off as to how popular National will be. ”

    How do you figure? As you correctly point out, Key is much more popular than his party, so how suicidal would the Nats have to be feeling to roll him?

    It’s possible he may resign (although I doubt it’d happen within the first year), but I cannot see him being rolled outside of some totally unforseen development (and more GSCB allegations don’t count as an unforseen development).

    Comment by kalvarnsen — September 17, 2014 @ 7:03 pm

  10. Kalvarnsen, how many Nats have you seen supporting Key recently? He seems to be quite on his own. Collins approached Winston to see if he would work with her/her faction after the election. She may be gone but her faction no doubt still exists.

    Comment by Matty — September 17, 2014 @ 7:15 pm

  11. Matty: well over a million?

    A.

    Comment by Antoine — September 17, 2014 @ 7:22 pm

  12. Kalvarnsen, how many Nats have you seen supporting Key recently?

    His face is up alongside every single one of their’s on billboards across the country.

    The chance of National rolling Key is so minimal that only the seriously deluded could even contemplate it.

    Comment by Flashing Light — September 17, 2014 @ 7:24 pm

  13. No sorry, I think Key is a liability for National and will be rolled. Popularity can slide very quickly once the rot sets in. There will be a lot of inquiries, possibly some legal action after the election. He admitted he released classified documents, that had the highest classification of “secret”, only for the purpose of saving his reputation, isn’t that treasonous? The GCSB guide to security classifications says the “compromise” of “Secret” information could “damage the security, defence or international relations of New Zealand and/or friendly governments”. He said he would resign if found to be lying about surveillance, well he was lying, so where is his resignation? And then there is all the Dirty Politics stuff, more to come there I am sure. The gloss usually comes off third term governments very soon after the election, and Key is already mired in scandals. The puppet masters (Americans? Got to wonder now) behind National politicians only care about getting laws in place to suit their ends (TPPA?), they have others lined up to replace him when the time comes.

    Comment by Matty — September 17, 2014 @ 7:47 pm

  14. Before any of that happens with Winston, we will have the pretend election result, with spin from the usual suspects:

    “How dare Cunliffe try and form a government, by waiting for all the votes to be counted to see if the Greens pick up another seat? He is undermining democracy! Key had won the election at 9 pm on Saturday, you can’t change that just by waiting for the result!” etc, etc.

    Bookmark this, it’s gonna happen. Pressure on Winston to be “statesmanlike” by ending “instability”, because the press gallery are bored.

    Comment by sammy 2.0 — September 17, 2014 @ 8:05 pm

  15. I agree with all your predictions. But won’t it almost be worth it, just to see the Speaker working up a sweat in dealing with months’ worth of opposition MPs wanting to read out quotes from John Key declaring Winston Peters unfit for a role in a government led by Key, promising to to go into opposition rather than rely on Winston Peters to form a government, etc? I’d be happy to settle for that entertainment spectacular, as long as the Nats continue with Labour’s policy programme.

    Comment by Psycho Milt — September 17, 2014 @ 8:34 pm

  16. Peters will form a Government with whoever the people of New Zealand choose. He will not have a lickspittle blogger telling him who he will and will not go with.

    Comment by George — September 17, 2014 @ 8:44 pm

  17. Unfortunately, I agree with your predictions. The question is, which portfolio will he get? The TPPA negotiations will be National’s top priority next term, and they won’t want him meddling in that, so probably not Finance or Foreign Affairs. Maybe Justice?

    Comment by BenM — September 17, 2014 @ 9:08 pm

  18. @Milt: DPF is particularly amusing – after literally years of flogging the LABOUR = WINSTON horse for all it’s worth, he let Key’s abandonment of his previous highly principled stand* pass with literally only a single sentence of commentary.

    *DPF’s words

    Comment by kalvarnsen — September 17, 2014 @ 10:37 pm

  19. “Peters will form a Government with whoever the people of New Zealand choose.”

    No he won’t. He will form a government with whichever party offers him the most baubles of power.

    This is the major flaw in MMP, how a party with 7% support and Richard Prosser on it’s list will dictate the next government.

    If only both the Nat’s and Labour had the guts to stand up to him and completely rule him out of any government.

    Comment by Dex — September 17, 2014 @ 11:08 pm

  20. @kalvarnsen & Milt

    Too many links, too late in the evening, but here’s one to get us started:

    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/01/why_john_key_should_rule_winston_peters_out_again.html

    Persuasively argued. Opposition it is then. Prime Minister Cunliffe has DPF’s blessing. National will need to find another pollster, but that’s a small price to pay for principle.

    (Don’t worry, we can find one of these every day for the next three years).

    Comment by sammy 2.0 — September 17, 2014 @ 11:14 pm

  21. Maybe, but I sense Winston Peters and Metiria Turei have been getting along quite famously in a post-modern Matua-Kotiro kind of way. A bit of quiet whanaungatanga bridge-building going on there to wipe away all that National/Labour partisan dross.

    Comment by Noah — September 18, 2014 @ 4:06 am

  22. Reblogged this on Talking Auckland and commented:
    Interesting

    Comment by Ben Ross - Talking Auckland — September 18, 2014 @ 8:28 am

  23. Prediction: Ron Mark will take over leadership of NZ First sometime in 2016. Winston to then be knighted, with it being announced before the 2017 election that Sir Winston will be the next High Commissioner to London.

    Comment by Sanctuary — September 18, 2014 @ 9:16 am

  24. With you up to Ron Mark taking over, Sanctuary, but I suspect Lord Peters of Whananaki – reflecting his Scottish/Maori and Chineses heritage – will become the first Governor General of a newly independent Scotland after it decides to join the Commonwealth.

    Comment by Tinakori — September 18, 2014 @ 10:12 am

  25. …Sir Winston will be the next High Commissioner to London.

    Hardly reading the tealeaves there, Sanc.

    Comment by Gregor W — September 18, 2014 @ 10:17 am

  26. If Winnie accidentally leaves NZ First in rude health and with an effective leader when his time is up, he may have created a new political force. A populist, nationalistic anti-establishment party has strong voter appeal. Shorn of a lazy Winston Peter’s and his race baiting and with 10 MPs it might be around for a while.

    Danyl – are you going to make a “put your predictions here” post today or tomorrow?

    Comment by Sanctuary — September 18, 2014 @ 11:11 am

  27. I agree entirely with those statements, but I would also add that for Winnie the simple prospect of turfing Key out of the PM’s role would come nowhere near being sufficient revenge for the dismissive wounding he has suffered at Key’s hands in earlier days.

    No, the prospect of Key having to come to him hat in hand to remain PM and then be dependent on him for another three long years is the only true measure of old-fashioned political revenge here – and Peter’s is a very old-fashioned politician.

    As Psycho puts it, combined with a general preservation and even small advances in the welfare state, you guys should be able to sit back and really enjoy your popcorn through to 2017.

    Comment by Tom Hunter — September 18, 2014 @ 12:30 pm

  28. @kalvarnsen
    “Question is, will it lead to another collapse in support for NZF?”

    I thought Winston was retiring at the next election. Surely no one expects his redneck little party to survive his exit?

    Comment by Josh — September 18, 2014 @ 2:21 pm

  29. @Sanc: Why not Tracey Martin?

    Comment by lefty — September 18, 2014 @ 9:01 pm


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