The Dim-Post

March 6, 2015

Northland

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 10:05 am
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If I lived in Northland I’d vote for Winston Peters then dip my hand in a bucket of bleach (I probably wouldn’t do that last bit). But the thing about by-elections is that not many people vote in them. So turnout is a big deal, and I just can’t see Peters beating the National Party machine.

60 Comments »

  1. Yeah, the ability to shove a stick into the spokes of the RMA reforms alone would make Winston worth voting for, let alone the bringing to a squealing halt the rest of National’s agenda. BTW – didn’t key just have a nice long Xmas holiday in Hawaii? He is looking awfully over it for a man t the beginning of the working year.

    Comment by Sanctuary — March 6, 2015 @ 10:10 am

  2. And in 10 years time we’ll all be like ‘Remember when Danyl supported NZ First?’

    A.

    Comment by Antoine — March 6, 2015 @ 10:11 am

  3. Oh and the other thing making voting Winston palatable is David Farrar’s reaction – Farrar has some sort of personal beef with Peters, the fury of an entitled hard-right ACToid like Farrar stymied again by Winston will be wondrous to behold.

    Comment by Sanctuary — March 6, 2015 @ 10:12 am

  4. Sanc, you think DPF would be unhappy to see Peters splitting the left wing vote?

    A.

    Comment by Antoine — March 6, 2015 @ 10:15 am

  5. No, he’d be incandescent if Peter’s won.

    Comment by Sanctuary — March 6, 2015 @ 10:23 am

  6. Peters isn’t going to win, is the point Danyl just made.

    A.

    Comment by Antoine — March 6, 2015 @ 10:28 am

  7. Go Winston

    Comment by bosun — March 6, 2015 @ 10:30 am

  8. “…Peters isn’t going to win,..”

    Really? Well while you are at it, can you tell me who is going to win Race 5 at 17:22 at Ellerslie tomorrow?

    Comment by Sanctuary — March 6, 2015 @ 10:33 am

  9. The Nats will just make him Minister in charge of America’s Cup and he will be perfectly happy.

    Comment by unaha-closp — March 6, 2015 @ 10:33 am

  10. Sanc @ 1033

    Peters will not win that either, I do not think he is even entered.

    A.

    Comment by Antoine — March 6, 2015 @ 10:46 am

  11. It’ll be the Epsom Syndrome again: just enough National voters will do what is required of them, and just enough anti-National voters won’t.

    There is one difference though: in Epsom the voters can’t know the general election outcome, so they tick the box Key tells them to, because scary Hone, Dotcom, Greenies etc are lurking in the shadows. They hate the gun at their heads, but they won’t risk pulling the trigger.

    In Northland the National voters know that Key will still be in power. (Only 0.1% of the population cares if Seymour or Dunne or Obscure Party-Hopper is the government’s majority).

    So it’s just possible they’ll treat the National party the way the party has treated them. Here’s hoping.

    Comment by sammy 3.0 — March 6, 2015 @ 11:02 am

  12. Flying Orca will put you into the money Sanc.
    And no, Peters is not going to win

    Comment by rayinnz — March 6, 2015 @ 11:17 am

  13. Winston is represents everything I most admire about politicians. Remember, he’s on-record as being uninterested in ‘the baubles of power’, and that’s quite pertinent to my mind, because of all the politicians I can think of, he is probably the least likely one to ever talk baubles.
    In fact, running for a seat in this way so that should he be successful in ‘making a difference’ for Northland by installing an MP in Invercargill is is demonstrably not baubles either. And, to his credit, even though he apparently appeals to an electorate using a manifesto which he then publicly abandons again, indicates that if one politician in our hallowed instititution not going to be caught out talking baubles, its going to be Winston.
    But at least Winston is honest. He makes no pretence that he is unashamed to talk baubles when he needs to. After all, he is a career politician always on the lookout for the main chance, and always willing to gull the unwary into keeping his place at the better-paid end of society’s table.
    But when I hear people who apparently pride themselves on their intelligence describing their desire to see this bauble-spouting troughlodyte continue to quaff his booze and feed his smarmy face at the taxpayers expense, on the basis that it would upset a right-wing blogger; well, I think that is complete bollocks.

    Comment by Lee Clark — March 6, 2015 @ 11:22 am

  14. “this bauble-spouting troughlodyte continue to quaff his booze and feed his smarmy face at the taxpayers expense … ”

    When there’s a fire in your building, do you fold your arms and say “So what? The toilet has no soap!”

    Comment by sammy 3.0 — March 6, 2015 @ 11:32 am

  15. The most likely outcomes of Peters’ candidacy are that:
    – Willow-Jean Prime will get very few votes and look rubbish
    – The left will appear ineffective
    – Voters will be reminded that a vote for Labour-Green may also be a vote for NZ 1st.

    A.

    Comment by Antoine — March 6, 2015 @ 11:42 am

  16. “troughlodyte” – portmanteau ‘o the day!

    Comment by Gregor W — March 6, 2015 @ 11:45 am

  17. Sorry sammy, I really need you to imagine a whooshing noise and the sight of my palm sailing over my head. Bit, If you are likening Winston to some kind rescuer or firefighter I can only imagine my dismay if he were to turn up red-nosed and slurring, and offer to cart me out of a burning building to safety.

    Especially if the bar happened to be by foyer.

    Comment by Lee Clark — March 6, 2015 @ 12:49 pm

  18. Lee, it’s simply: big problem versus small problem. Perspective.

    You see the defining issue (the one that implicitly decides your vote) as seeing “… this bauble-spouting troughlodyte continue to quaff his booze and feed his smarmy face at the taxpayers expense.”

    If that is really what offends, then take any measure you want (influence, taxpayer funding, votes) and ACT must be a greater offender than Winston Peters. Yet you save your venom for Peters, not for those who actually hold power in the land. Which suggests your professed concerns about the “taxpayers’ expense” and “baubles” are rather flimsy.

    Sorry, but I don’t have much time for those who rant on behalf of the powerful and privileged, no matter how entertaining the rant may be.

    Comment by sammy 3.0 — March 6, 2015 @ 1:05 pm

  19. My motivation for what you characterise as a ‘ranting’ sammy, was to suggest that the people of Northland deserve better than to be treated like any politician’s personal fiefdom. Reducing the outcome to being a strategic pawn in everybody else’s political agenda, is shallow. If that was interpreted as a rant in favour of the powerful and privileged, based on a subjective notion about the best outcome, then I’d suggest the real’ big problem’ is politically motivated tribalism which appears to see voters as little more than pawns in others’ desire for power at any cost..
    If you are interested, in overlooking assumptions about others, I’d personally vote for Willow Jean Prime.

    Comment by Lee Clark — March 6, 2015 @ 2:47 pm

  20. Well while you are at it, can you tell me who is going to win Race 5 at 17:22 at Ellerslie tomorrow?

    Race 5 at Ellerslie tomorrow is at 14:50 and Rose of Virginia looks awfully hard to beat.

    Comment by Ross — March 6, 2015 @ 3:35 pm

  21. https://www.tab.co.nz/racing/#2015-03-07-m2-r5

    Comment by Ross — March 6, 2015 @ 3:36 pm

  22. National could have helped themselves by choosing someone easier to vote for. The Maungaturoto dairy farmer must have been pretty terrible.

    Comment by George — March 6, 2015 @ 4:08 pm

  23. Fair enough Lee, assumptions hereby withdrawn.

    Problem is, the voters of Northland may already feel they’ve been treated like pawns – by National, with the previous MP and the party’s cynical dishonesty. Like Danyl, I would need some self-flagellation after voting for Peters (never have), but if it’s the only effective way to punish National, then so be it. Making a “favourable reference to the devil” and all that (Godwin!).

    Comment by sammy 3.0 — March 6, 2015 @ 5:07 pm

  24. I always thought Nationals hatred of Winston was related to the wine box tax fraud swindle that very wealthy Act and National supporters were up to their necks in.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/8515361/Money-trail-leads-home-to-New-Zealand

    Winston has taken votes away from national and at one time dented the incomes of their supporters.

    And if one thing makes those people angry its fucking with ‘their’ money …………..

    Regarding the by-election …..local news travels fast and gets around in rural areas …..

    The Sabin-Con itself will influence a few voters up that way and not to nationals advantage.

    Comment by reason — March 6, 2015 @ 5:56 pm

  25. The thing about voting for Winston as a slam to National is that Winston is more than capable of knuckling down and cooperating with National if it serves his interests.

    Comment by kalvarnsen — March 6, 2015 @ 7:24 pm

  26. The next question is what Nat candidate Mark Osborne knew about allegations against Sabin.

    Comment by Vita Thomas — March 6, 2015 @ 11:43 pm

  27. Race 5 at Ellerslie tomorrow is at 14:50 and Rose of Virginia looks awfully hard to beat.

    I hope there are some who took my advice!

    Comment by Ross — March 7, 2015 @ 4:40 pm

  28. I just heard a rumour that Joyce is offering a casino if the vote goes their way.

    Comment by Big ears — March 7, 2015 @ 6:25 pm

  29. Ross you are awesome. Have you got a blog? I will abandon Danyl and follow you

    A.

    Comment by Antoine — March 7, 2015 @ 8:29 pm

  30. Danyl, Sir Winston Peters, Minister of Racing and next ambassador to London thanks you for your vote.

    But if you leftists are all so upset, why dont the journos (looking at “Patrick” Gower) just hound Brooke for the low down on his father? Or does journalistic integrity only go as far as looking after your own?

    Comment by Grant — March 7, 2015 @ 8:50 pm

  31. There’s no NZ ambassador to London, Grant. Didn’t they teach you that in your troll training before you started at the National Party Research Unit?

    Comment by Judge Holden — March 7, 2015 @ 9:06 pm

  32. “War and politics make strange bedfellows.”

    Comment by Kumara Republic — March 7, 2015 @ 10:03 pm

  33. @judge – a genuine troll would have known that. Grant’s just an idiot.

    Comment by Gregor W — March 7, 2015 @ 10:30 pm

  34. Gregor W: Quite possibly a member/supporter of the now-defunct Libertarianz.

    Comment by Kumara Republic — March 7, 2015 @ 11:27 pm

  35. Grant asked “why dont the journos (looking at “Patrick” Gower) just hound Brooke for the low down on his father?’

    Patrick Gower already knows what Mike Sabin has been charged with. When the courts suppress this sort of info it doesn’t mean the journalists don’t know – it means they aren’t allowed to report it.

    Comment by Can of Worms, Opened — March 8, 2015 @ 11:17 am

  36. Sanc. Ross gave you the winner and my pick was placed
    Time you came over to the winning side

    Comment by rayinnz — March 8, 2015 @ 12:47 pm

  37. So far the winner is Andrew Little, who has negotiated an actively hostile media to position Labour as backing Winston without an hysterical Paddy Gower being able to have an anti-Labour rant on the telly. Pretty astute footwork by the Labour leader and should Winston wins, a very very good decision that nobbles the government completely.

    Comment by Sanctuary — March 9, 2015 @ 8:48 am

  38. We should have Preferential Voting for by-elections instead of the First Past the Post system we have now.

    Comment by NN — March 9, 2015 @ 9:48 am

  39. Whatever happened to loyalty?
    sanctuary, naive as I may appear, Andrew Little has not shown ‘astute footwork’ imo. He has shown the leadership qualities of a weasel and the strategic nous of Churchill pre-Gallipoli. Given an opportunity to endorse his candidate, and send a message to people about the calibre of his loyalty, he’s chosen to publicly throw Willow-Jean under Winston’s bus, why? Because he knows she will lose, so he’ll cut his losses quick. I believe that this will lose him votes in the longer-term.

    The only person who may emerge from this sordid little affair may be Willow-Jean Prime, who even as a loser at the polls will be able to hold her head high as one who acted in the best interests of the people of Northland. Is being a promising young politician and an advocate for a community no longer a requirement for an MP, in this kind of democratic system?

    Comment by Lee Clark — March 9, 2015 @ 1:42 pm

  40. Oh wah wah wah.

    Comment by Sanctuary — March 9, 2015 @ 2:25 pm

  41. It’s not a deal it’s “signalling”.

    Comment by NeilM — March 9, 2015 @ 2:45 pm

  42. Like cutting The Greens out of the security committee was as signal to them.

    One signal for Winston another for Turei.

    Still, maybe it could be called an arrangement.

    Comment by NeilM — March 9, 2015 @ 2:51 pm

  43. Wanna buy a bridge?

    Comment by Knob Endt — March 9, 2015 @ 3:12 pm

  44. That’s cool Sanctuary, you cleared up my question very succinctly.

    Comment by Lee Clark — March 9, 2015 @ 4:27 pm

  45. Pork is served. And Northland’s been a safe Nat region for nearly 5 decades.

    Comment by Kumara Republic (@kumararepublic) — March 9, 2015 @ 4:34 pm

  46. And, as importantly, Little has squandered moral capital, here. How can he appeal to the sensibilities of those who decry Epsom and ACT, now he’s made it apparent, he’d sell his integrity to Winston ‘you can trust me’ Peters, and be prepared to sacrifice one of his own in the blink of an eye?
    The eagerness to exploit the main chance, may have longer-term negative consequences, and those eager to play politics in this way, may be thinking with the wrong part of their bodies.

    Step away from the abyss, Andy, stop thinking small, support your candidate uniquivocally, be a leader.

    Comment by Lee Clark — March 9, 2015 @ 5:17 pm

  47. Because “Epsom = Northland” is a tiresome spin line that nobody can possibly take seriously. Not if they have a functioning memory.

    Comment by sammy 3.0 — March 9, 2015 @ 5:25 pm

  48. It’s a continuation of Labour trying to sound like the Greens but when it comes to actions they’ll go with Peters.

    Comment by NeilM — March 9, 2015 @ 5:59 pm

  49. Little has squandered moral capital? Not if it works.

    Comment by Knob Endt — March 9, 2015 @ 6:07 pm

  50. What … ‘nobody?’… ‘possibly?’ sammy. Perception is all, in this game, and I fear Little is becoming a master of half-considered unforced errors. Rather than grabbing the Six O’clocks, seen smiling and waving, suporting his candidate, shaking hands kissing babies – you get the picture – confident, ebullient and assured, he’s turned the free gift of a by-election into a boring beltway horse-trade and (excuse the mixed metaphors) hitched Labour Party onto NZ First’s wagon. It’s just the kind of rudderless boat look that lost the last election.

    Comment by Lee Clark — March 9, 2015 @ 6:48 pm

  51. In 2008 Danyl was voting for National to get rid of Peters, now he is (or would be, I guess) voting for Peters to get rid of National.

    Comment by kalvarnsen — March 9, 2015 @ 8:52 pm

  52. Lee – The last election was only five minutes ago. It seems pretty sensible to make hay here while there is an opportunity to ride out the govt’s discomfort and public discontent over Sabin, Sky City, the Iraq deployment etc.

    A tougher parliamentary environment should (a) moderate the worst excesses of a clear majority, which is good and (b) create a tuning point moment for the press, which may incline then to put the govt under more scrutiny,and tends to force/reveal more mistakes as they compensate (i.e. clumsy pork barrel politics), which is also good.

    Besides, there’s two more years to look rudderless if Little really is a flake.

    Comment by Gregor W — March 9, 2015 @ 9:50 pm

  53. The difference between Epsom and Northland is Little is telling Labour voters to vote Winston while at the same time trying to deny he’s doing just that.

    Comment by NeilM — March 10, 2015 @ 7:26 am

  54. I get all this Gregor, but imo Peters is not going to be any more use to Labour than an ashtray on a motorbike in this respect. He won’t win the seat, he’ll simply make Little, and all those who flock to him, like Kim Dot Com before him, look like desperate chumps. That’s Winston’s special gift to Nz politics.
    No, imo it would be much better for Little to act statesmanlike, and stand by his woman. Presently, this set-up just looks shifty, and won’t even win Winston the seat. On the bright side, pork-barrel incentives are flowing North, so that works for me, and makes WJP look good….she deserves it.

    Comment by Lee Clark — March 10, 2015 @ 7:37 am

  55. Watching the ‘intellects’ of the online left haplessly flop about trying to counter Lee Clarke’s posts is the best part of this blog. I shudder to think what kind of tortured reasoning leads to the conclusion that Little is the winner here, if Winston is the answer, it must be one hell of a question.

    Comment by Craig. — March 10, 2015 @ 7:47 am

  56. Little has risked his reputation all on the gamble that Winston might make life a little bit more difficult for National.

    But all that would happen is Dunne gets to have more say.

    I thought Little’s initial reaction – support the Labour candidate on principle, which has to now been Labour’s position – was the best option.

    But the clever strategists have won the day.

    Comment by NeilM — March 10, 2015 @ 7:48 am

  57. Winston Peters certainly does one thing – he gets under the skin of middle class whites who support National, whose visceral loathing of him is hardly justified by his record in office. Reading all the moaning here from the right makes me think Labour must be doing something right. I always said the only reason for Labour not to run a candidate was that Winston Peters might win, which it appears – if all the resources the National party are suddenly throwing at Northland are any guide – he has a good chance of doing.

    So let’s examine some of the poor little me blowhardery from the right here:

    “…Little has squandered moral capital, here. How can he appeal to the sensibilities of those who decry Epsom and ACT…”

    Appealing to the sensibilities of those who decry Epsom and ACT has had about as much impact on Key and National in terms of changing anything as a cheeseburger at McDonalds has had. Playing National at it’s own game and apparently winning is suddenly a crime for people who have spent a decade smugly dissembling in favour the Epsom rort, even though this is hardly an equivalent electoral accommodation.

    “…he’s turned the free gift of a by-election into a boring beltway horse-trade…”

    Boring beltway horse trade? Really? So boring and beltway that Key and Joyce and rest of the National gangsta set are being grumpy, having tantrums in the Herald editorial columns, trumpeting their displeasure on the talkback airwaves and throwing tens of millions of dollars of taxpayers money at pork barrel projects? The guts of your whining is Labour is being tactically astute in allowing National to suffer a possible game changing electoral defeat in the North. As for your dismissive “beltway” comment you should really go back to school and learn to count. There are plenty of issues that are not “beltway” that a NZ First win would affect. Saving the RMA, oversight of Key’s surveillance state – these are not “beltway”, and not having the numbers to pass carte blanche whatever Teflon John wants is important.

    Let’s call the pompous wind-baggery from Craig and Lee Clark and NeilH for what it is – sanctimonious resentment at the possibility National will be dealt a stinging defeat, possibly signalling the exhaustion of Key’s famous “political capital”, that will make it a lame duck government.

    As for the confident assertions Peter’s won’t win – he is already ahead, at worst neck and neck with National, who selected a candidate who is another flaccid, faceless, and fat middle aged white male drone, selected presumably on his loyalty to the party and inability to have an original thought. The National candidate – I can’t even recall his name just now – is being easily made to look ridiculous in public meetings by Winston Peters. And Peter’s has even started to leak what Sabin is charged with, and the scandal about when Key knew what is about to kick off. There is everything to play for in Northland.

    Comment by Sanctuary — March 10, 2015 @ 9:30 am

  58. “… And Peter’s hasn’t even started to leak…”

    Comment by Sanctuary — March 10, 2015 @ 9:32 am

  59. @ Lee

    He won’t win the seat, he’ll simply make Little, and all those who flock to him, like Kim Dot Com before him, look like desperate chumps.

    Pretty much what Sanc said re calling this particular race, but also it’s a bit silly to compare Winston’s political impact to DotCom’s.
    Simply, Winston has real and tested political capital and NZF is a genuine and longstanding centre-conservative protest party, unlike Dotcom’s neophyte effort.
    Also, National is clearly shitting bricks on this one because it’s very unlikely that NZF will come back into the fold after being soundly rejected post election. IMO its National that are looking like desperate chumps right now.

    Comment by Gregor W — March 10, 2015 @ 9:59 am

  60. “57.Winston Peters certainly does one thing – he gets under the skin of middle class whites who support National”
    By appealing to racist white voters who would support Labour if it weren’t for all teh gays and front-bums? Winnie is welcome to them…

    Comment by Clunking Fist — March 10, 2015 @ 1:51 pm


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