Here’s the tracking poll updated for the first time since the election.
- I’ve switched off bias-correction because it wasn’t a very good predictor of the actual outcome in 2014.
- Labour have almost won back the support they lost by putting Cunliffe in charge
- New Zealand First outperformed the polls during the last two general elections. The theory is that his demographic of older voters votes in a greater proportion than the general population.
- What does that mean for Northland? Possibly nothing because the majority of people voting for him won’t be traditional New Zealand First voters. But it makes me less certain of a National win. They’re a long way behind in the polls and people who vote for Peters do turn out. I’m a lot less certain.