Contra DPF, I think there is some value in opposition parties targeting the government with so-called ‘Beltway issues’. But the fundamental job of the opposition is to show that the government can’t run the country, but the opposition can. That hasn’t been happening, hence little movement in the polls.
New Zealand First is trending up and the Greens are trending down. Given poll bias New Zealand First is almost certainly more popular than the Greens right now.
It’s a long way until the 2017 election but the most likely outcome at this point is a National/New Zealand First government. And I just can’t see Labour capturing enough votes off National to overcome the combined Nats+NZF.