The Dim-Post

April 20, 2015

Beltway issues

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 1:42 pm

Contra DPF, I think there is some value in opposition parties targeting the government with so-called ‘Beltway issues’. But the fundamental job of the opposition is to show that the government can’t run the country, but the opposition can. That hasn’t been happening, hence little movement in the polls.

New Zealand First is trending up and the Greens are trending down. Given poll bias New Zealand First is almost certainly more popular than the Greens right now.

It’s a long way until the 2017 election but the most likely outcome at this point is a National/New Zealand First government. And I just can’t see Labour capturing enough votes off National to overcome the combined Nats+NZF.

23 Comments »

  1. You don’t think that your mate “DPF” might actually find that “beltway issues” do hurt the government (if only by causing friction and dissent in the ranks, like Judith Collins resigning) and just be using the “beltway” term to mean “things we don’t want to be called on”.

    Comment by richdrich — April 20, 2015 @ 2:05 pm

  2. 😦

    Comment by Sad — April 20, 2015 @ 2:05 pm

  3. Wondering why you see National + NZF more likely than Labour + NZF? NZF has spent time in coalition with both. Is it because that latter grouping is unlikely to be possible without the Greens as well, and Winston dislikes the Greens? What if Winston wasn’t leading NZF by then?

    Comment by PaulL — April 20, 2015 @ 2:13 pm

  4. The ultimate beltway issue was the Electoral Finance Act, where DPF and friends managed to get Gaddafi , Bainimarama and Kim Jonj-Il interested.

    Comment by dukeofurl — April 20, 2015 @ 2:17 pm

  5. I’m flabbergasted that you posted the “Contra” piece. I don’t support the Greens, but I don’t kick them either. You are beyond the pale.

    Comment by John Williams — April 20, 2015 @ 2:20 pm

  6. What if Winston wasn’t leading NZF by then?

    Sort of reductio ad absurdum isn’t it?
    No Winston, no NZF I would think.

    Comment by Gregor W — April 20, 2015 @ 2:20 pm

  7. I was surprised to see Key and co still so popular after Northland. The media has been frantically writing them off. But NZ know quality when they see it I guess.

    Comment by artcroft — April 20, 2015 @ 3:04 pm

  8. The Greens have been starved of oxygen recently, struggling to get their issues of choice in front of the media. They should hope that their next co-leader gives them a media bump and reestablishes them as go-to voices on whatever they care about.

    Comment by Fraud — April 20, 2015 @ 4:12 pm

  9. Peters was last months left wing saviour. This month it’s John Campbell and next month it could be The Herald – if they don’t publish anything critical of Campbell.

    But according to Twitter John Key is a liar and our foreign policy should be farmed out to a Ron Paul fanboy. So I’d disregard those polls.

    Comment by NeilM — April 20, 2015 @ 5:12 pm

  10. DPF is quite happy to chase after “beltway issues” if it’s Labour*, not National, who are the ones who’ve cocked up.

    *and to a lesser extent NZF/The Greens

    Comment by kalvarnsen — April 20, 2015 @ 7:10 pm

  11. But NZ know quality when they see it I guess.

    Hence the oft-mentioned tall poppy syndrome in which they go after anyone of quality. And yet, funnily, they haven’t gone after National… Quite a mystery.

    Comment by flynn — April 20, 2015 @ 7:35 pm

  12. i recall Danyl saying if he lived in Northland, he would probably vote for Winston then dip his hand in bleach. I daresay a few are beginning to wish they’d drunk it too.

    Comment by Lee Clark — April 20, 2015 @ 7:39 pm

  13. Given the frequency with which DPF talks about beltway issues, I don’t think they’re meaningless and I doubt he thinks they are. If they were, he’d shut up about them.

    Comment by Ross — April 21, 2015 @ 6:45 am

  14. NZ know quality when they see it I guess.

    That’s high quality sarcasm…

    Comment by Ross — April 21, 2015 @ 6:47 am

  15. “…Given the frequency with which DPF talks about beltway issues, I don’t think they’re meaningless and I doubt he thinks they are. If they were, he’d shut up about them…”

    Danyl has well known weakness for letting DPF set his agenda.

    Comment by Sanctuary — April 21, 2015 @ 7:00 am

  16. Over one million dont vote, The fuck off Statist tard you dont have a consent to govern position. Cant see that in the poll.

    Comment by Simon — April 21, 2015 @ 8:12 am

  17. It’s a long way until the 2017 election but the most likely outcome at this point is a National/New Zealand First government.

    Every government with Winston in it is always horrible and if this happens there will be a Labour government by 2019/2020.

    Comment by unaha-closp — April 21, 2015 @ 8:50 am

  18. Every government with Winston in it is always horrible and if this happens there will be a Labour government by 2019/2020.

    The prospect of a Labour Government is beginning to sound a bit like Bill English’s surplus … it’s gonna come! It really, really is!!

    Comment by Andrew Geddis — April 21, 2015 @ 9:39 am

  19. Everyone knows that Labour could easily form a Government at the next election if they didn’t keep voting massive bell ends in as their leader.

    Little doesn’t seem as bad, but only because he stands in direct comparison to the high Emperor of dick whistles that was David Cunliffe. Little is terrible.

    Forget about Winston, Labour needs to perform a cretin purge, then he wont matter.

    Comment by King Kong — April 21, 2015 @ 10:24 am

  20. “But NZ know quality when they see it I guess.”
    Indeed: National are the paper rain jacket. Labour are the rain jacket made of matted poo. Decisions, decisions.

    “Over one million dont vote, The fuck off Statist tard you dont have a consent to govern position”
    Eh? Possibly fixed as: Over one million dont vote, 1/4th being the “fuck off you self-serving cunts, you don’t have a consent to govern” position, and the 3/4ths being the “they ain’t giving me free stuff, besides it’s all too complicated, oh look The GC is on”, position?

    Comment by Clunking Fist — April 21, 2015 @ 1:17 pm

  21. > I just can’t see Labour capturing enough votes off National to overcome the combined Nats+NZF.

    That’s quite a long range prediction. If nothing else happens, that could be true. But a lot can and will happen. That’s my prediction. Historically, whatever happens is unlikely to look good for the ruling party in their third term, because by then they’ve had 6-9 years to get things right, so blaming it on the Opposition has started to wear thin as a blade.

    Winston as kingmaker would probably side with the biggest party. So Labour has to take 10% off National (and put it on themselves) for that to happen. But there are many other scenarios.

    Comment by Ben Wilson — April 21, 2015 @ 4:04 pm

  22. “Beltway Issues” is a euphemism for “voters don’t pay attention to stuff they don’t understand”….or more concisely: “ignorant, incurious voters”.

    The issues are often very important…..any voters with insight would understand what these things mean for the wider picture.

    “Voters with insight” = maybe 10%.

    Comment by Steve — April 22, 2015 @ 10:33 am

  23. “It’s a long way until the 2017 election but the most likely outcome at this point is a National/New Zealand First government. And I just can’t see Labour capturing enough votes off National to overcome the combined Nats+NZF.”

    With respect, I thought you might have given up making predictions around NZF! But anyway, you have to ask why did National throw everything, including the kitchen sink at the northland election, the answer I believe is there is a lot of bad blood between Winston and National, Taronga and Rodney Hide come to mind, National know that Winston would make them pay a very high price for his support in forming a Government and once they got a sniff of Winston winning Nationals panicked reaction spoke for itself.

    Comment by MrSmith — April 22, 2015 @ 5:27 pm


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