The Dim-Post

September 21, 2015

Tracking poll

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 8:16 am

Peter has updated his poll aggregation script to show us blocs of parties:

nzpolls

All of the pundit commentary around the one year election anniversary has been around National’s stability in the polls. But there actually seems to have been quite a lot of turmoil. National is losing voters to Labour. But the Conservative Party collapsed this year, and National seems to have picked up all of their votes.

16 Comments »

  1. But the Conservative Party collapsed this year, and National seems to have picked up all of their votes.

    Hmm, would have thought that a fair amount fled to NZ First.

    Comment by eszett — September 21, 2015 @ 8:35 am

  2. Or National is losing voters to NZ First while Labour is winning back voters from NZ First they lost under Cunliffe

    Comment by Mike — September 21, 2015 @ 8:35 am

  3. Early prediction 2017 – Steven Joyce PM, Winston Peters Deputy PM and Sir John Key Ambassador to Washington.

    Comment by unaha-closp — September 21, 2015 @ 9:31 am

  4. Early prediction 2017 – Steven Joyce PM

    Eugh.

    I’m not convinced about your timing but the worst part of it is, when you look at the National party list, there’s currently no other obvious candidate for the next leader. That said, it’s entirely possible that the next National party PM isn’t even in the parliamentary team yet.

    Comment by Phil — September 21, 2015 @ 9:48 am

  5. “Early prediction 2017 – Steven Joyce PM”

    Would National’s management elite bank on him winning an election? Assuming National’s governing after 2017 then I’d wonder if late 2018 could be more likely for this.

    Comment by izogi — September 21, 2015 @ 10:24 am

  6. The Cunliffe effect is extraordinarily clear in this graph.

    Comment by Dr Foster — September 21, 2015 @ 12:22 pm

  7. The combined Opposition have been ahead of the Govt Bloc and Broad Right Bloc (Govt+Con) in each of the last 5 TV Polls (Colmar Brunton / Reid Research). Big change from 2014 Election.

    Comment by swordfish — September 21, 2015 @ 6:16 pm

  8. The Grim Reaper represented appropriately in black.

    Comment by NeilM — September 21, 2015 @ 7:07 pm

  9. >National is losing voters to Labour. But the Conservative Party collapsed this year, and National seems to have picked up all of their votes.

    It’s a story. One without evidence beyond correlation. National and Labour are pretty much necessarily correlated by virtue of being the biggest parties, and the count having to add up to 100%.

    But why not speculate? Everyone does.

    Comment by Ben Wilson — September 21, 2015 @ 11:40 pm

  10. If he’d been a Queen fan then I could have believed there was some actual debauchery.

    Comment by NeilM — September 22, 2015 @ 5:57 am

  11. Where on your graph are the over million people who think all political parties and mps are retarded and Wellington is a massive circle jerk so they dont vote. The line for those people would be above where national are.

    Comment by Simon — September 22, 2015 @ 6:31 am

  12. @Ben: you might think they’re necessarily correlated, but then why are Labour heading up in the polls while National remains steady?

    Comment by pete — September 22, 2015 @ 1:22 pm

  13. @pete. What is wrong with your eyes? The chart up top is pretty clear.

    Comment by Phil — September 22, 2015 @ 1:36 pm

  14. @Phil chart up top is Nat+Con(+Act). National itself is steady, the decrease is driven by the Conservatives’ collapse.

    Comment by pete — September 22, 2015 @ 1:42 pm

  15. Yep, I’d say it’s a pretty fair bet that (putting aside various minor swings and counter-swings going on between multiple parties beneath the surface of the net figures) the main movement in support is (1) Nat to Lab and (2) Con to Nat.

    Polls in previous years have suggested a large-to-overwhelming majority of Conservative supporters favoured a National rather than Labour Government. And I think the Nats are the major Party most former Cons voters identify with.

    Left and Oppo Blocs are well up on the last election, Broad Right Bloc (Govt+Con) is well down, while the Nats and Govt Bloc are pretty much where they were. But 47% for the Nats / 48% for the Govt Bloc is no longer enough for a viable majority. There’s no wasted (Con/Mana) vote for them to benefit from in terms of seats and they no longer enjoy a clear lead over the Oppo Bloc. Indeed, in the 5 latest TV News Polls (Colmar Brunton / Reid Research), the Oppo is on average 3-4 points ahead.

    Not suggesting that Winnie will automatically head into coalition with Labour if these poll results were replicated at the next election, but the point is: despite all the celebratory National/Key “defying gravity / as popular as ever” rhetoric in the MSM at the moment, things have, in fact, changed quite significantly. The media’s exclusive focus on National’s largely unchanging % obscures this fact.

    Comment by swordfish — September 22, 2015 @ 3:01 pm

  16. > you might think they’re necessarily correlated, but then why are Labour heading up in the polls while National remains steady?

    Because the necessary correlation is not the only correlation, and correlation is not the only effect. There are a very large number of ways to explain the values we’re observing there, over and above making simple inferences that because one went up and the other went down that therefore all the people in one went to the other. We don’t know that from the poll data at all. A longitudinal study could make those kinds of statements with surety. Second best would be one that asked the respondents what their position was a month ago. From polls like these, all the inferences are basically guesswork, and not informed guesswork, since is no way of ascertaining whether they are true or false. They’re just stories you can tell about the data.

    Comment by Ben Wilson — September 22, 2015 @ 4:44 pm


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