I am a little staggered that they actually made a deal. The Herald article on the deal is here:
- ‘Mr Groser is very upbeat about the overall result, which will be published later today, but less so on dairy.’
- Access for dairy was literally Groser’s one job when negotiating this deal and he has, characteristically, failed to do it. I’m not that worried though. We’re already well over the environmental capacity for dairying. It’s probably costing more in long-term environmental costs than its earning in export revenue. So the last thing we needed was a trade deal incentivising more dairy. Best case scenario is that this new deal encourages exporters to move up the value chain and make high quality high wage products instead of shipping raw logs and milk powder.
- ‘There will be no change on the current patents for biologic medicines, although an extension on copyright by 20 years will be phased in.’
- This was always my main problem with the TPP deal. It was supposed to be a ‘modern free trade deal’ which standardised things like intellectual property laws to allow ‘frictionless’ trading. But as soon as the US joined the deal it became a grab-bag for its mega-corporations to impose a regime that is mostly anti-competitive and anti-free trade.
- Officials estimate that the benefit of TPP to New Zealand will be at least $2.7 billion a year after 15 years.
- My second problem with the TPP, This isn’t actually very much money. Probably about 1% of GDP by that time. And it doesn’t account for the costs of the deal. And the benefits will mostly be private: more profits for exporters; while the costs will mostly be public: eg, increased costs for Pharmac.
- I suspect the costs of not being a member of the partnership, now that is (probably) exists are very high. Helen Clark talked about this in the weekend; that a trading bloc excluding us would be ‘a nightmare’. It would! This glides over the fact that Clark helped set up this trading bloc which then forced us to make major concessions without improving access for our major export product.