The Dim-Post

September 5, 2016

Three predictions

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 12:09 pm

Via NewsHub:

Shane Jones is writing a book musing about how New Zealand should be run in one of the strongest signs yet his political comeback is on.

Sources have told Newshub that Jones has been mulling over the book’s contents and wants to use it as a “political reset button”.

The incarnation of ‘Jonesey the author’ comes amid growing speculation he will stand for New Zealand First at the next election.

The sources say that Jones has begun “doing the early mahi (work)” on the book’s outline while recovering from dengue fever contracted in Papua New Guinea during his role as the Government’s Pacific Ambassador.

Jones is clearly lining up the Whangarei seat that New Zealand First leader Winston Peters wants to take off National’s Shane Reti. He lives in nearby Kerikeri, but has strong links to Whangarei where Peters already has a strong presence.

Prediction 1 is that there will be no book. Prediction 2: if Jones stands for New Zealand First in Whangarei he will lose in a landslide. Prediction 3. Even if the first two predictions come true the gallery will continue to be gullible suckers for Jonesy.

16 Comments »

  1. I understand the last two, but why don’t you believe he could write a book? It doesn’t have to be a good book.

    Comment by Gareth Wilson — September 5, 2016 @ 12:50 pm

  2. He doesn’t even have to write it himself. Someone will take money to ghostwrite.

    Comment by Stephen J — September 5, 2016 @ 1:16 pm

  3. Surely that cant be true , that NZ journalists can be trapped in a politicians fluffball

    Comment by ghostwhowalksnz — September 5, 2016 @ 1:22 pm

  4. It doesn’t have to be a good book.

    A pamphlet would suffice.
    Even more Common Sense by St. Jonesy.

    Comment by Gregor W — September 5, 2016 @ 2:49 pm

  5. I understand the last two, but why don’t you believe he could write a book? It doesn’t have to be a good book.

    I’m sure he could write a book. But, as a long-time Jones watcher, I’m pretty sure he won’t.

    Comment by danylmc — September 5, 2016 @ 3:14 pm

  6. Even if the first two predictions come true the gallery will continue to be gullible suckers for Jonesy.

    He is protégé to Winston Peters – his talent for cultivating gullible suckers will serve him well.

    Comment by unaha-closp — September 5, 2016 @ 3:19 pm

  7. Alpha males with a penchant for strutting like Farriers birb are so late eighties even the nineties wouldn’t claim them. When Winston runs out of herbal ignite the show will be over, unless he gets it funded as a coalition demand.

    Comment by dghornblow — September 5, 2016 @ 3:54 pm

  8. “I’m sure he could write a book. But, as a long-time Jones watcher, I’m pretty sure he won’t.”

    Indeed.

    Comment by RHT — September 5, 2016 @ 4:28 pm

  9. I’m sure he could write a book. But, as a long-time Jones watcher, I’m pretty sure he won’t.

    Stranger things ‘n’ all.

    I mean, you wrote two.

    Comment by Phil — September 5, 2016 @ 4:40 pm

  10. “Prediction 2: if Jones stands for New Zealand First in Whangarei he will lose in a landslide”

    Not sure he’d lose by a “landslide” exactly, but would agree that it’d constitute an uphill battle for Corporal Jones.

    On the plus side (for Jonesy), Whangarei is certainly one of NZF’s strongest seats. They took almost 5000 Party-Votes there at the last Election. The combined Opposition Bloc vote was 15,508 (Lab+Green+NZF+IMP Party-Vote).

    In comparison, the Nats took 18,503, the Govt Bloc just under 19,000, and the broader Right Bloc (Govt + Cons) a tad under 21,000.

    So, he might have an outside chance, if Labour and the Greens gave a tacit nod to their supporters as in the Northland By-Election. But I doubt either Party would do that for a divisive and disloyal Courtier like Jonesy – and even if they did, he’d still be struggling. He’d need to make significant in-roads into National (and maybe Conservative) support. Seems unlikely. In 2014, 90% of Nat Party-Voters also ticked Reti in the Candidate-vote. They’re clearly not given to splitting their vote on a whim. Despite his local ties, Jones just doesn’t have Winnie’s pulling power.

    Comment by swordfish — September 5, 2016 @ 5:08 pm

  11. I’m good with predictions one and two (his local ties are further north) and think three might be wrong if he doesn’t get a winnable place on NZ First’s list. But, hey it’s Winston’s party and he’ll get what ever Winston feels like on the day and whatever is required to remind Ron Mark of where he sits in the pecking order

    Comment by Tinakori — September 5, 2016 @ 5:23 pm

  12. The chances of Jones getting even a little help from Labour+Greens is 0. More likely, Greens won’t run and Labour will run a strong candidate.

    Winston has little regard for Mark, mainly because Mark doesn’t learn from mistakes and makes so many of them when Winston isn’t around (pretty much every time he speaks in public).

    Comment by RHT — September 5, 2016 @ 6:03 pm

  13. More likely, Greens won’t run and Labour will run a strong candidate.

    It’s a seat with a 10,000+ vote buffer for National. If you were Labour, you really needn’t bother fielding a candidate just to try and win more electorate votes. All Labour could realistically achieve with a strong candidate is improve Jones’ chances of coming through the middle and winning the electorate with a plurality.

    On top of that, there’s a good chance Jones sails into parliament, with a high NZF-list spot, anyway. All in all, the best response from the parties of the left should be ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .

    Comment by Phil — September 5, 2016 @ 6:33 pm

  14. To hell with Jones maybe you could write about Greens losing MP’s to NGo’s and is there another Green MP considering leaving Parliament

    Comment by John Webster — September 5, 2016 @ 9:47 pm

  15. I think Danyl is saying writing a book requires work.

    Comment by dpf — September 6, 2016 @ 7:58 am

  16. I think you are spot on Danyll. All three.

    Why write a book when most of the electorate is illiterate?

    Comment by Adolf Fiinkensein — September 6, 2016 @ 5:03 pm


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