There are fresh worries for Labour following the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.
The party has slipped three points to 26 per cent. That’s the lowest it’s been in the ONE News poll since the last election when it recorded 25 per cent.
National, however, remains in fine form riding high, steady this month at 48 per cent, the same result it picked up on election night in 2014.
The Greens are trucking along solidly up one per cent to 13, although the big mover is New Zealand First which is up to two points in our poll to 11 per cent. The Maori Party has also had a small gain up one, to two per cent.
My current theory of New Zealand politics is that the party voter bases look roughly like this:
People are often surprised when there’s lots of political activity, and then a poll comes out and National haven’t shifted. I reckon this is because no one but Winston Peters is contesting their voters. Probably there was some movement during that period: people churning between the Greens and Labour and Labour and New Zealand First as the opposition parties all try and peel off their ‘next available voters’ from one another. We wouldn’t expect any of that to move current National voters – and it doesn’t.