The Dim-Post

October 18, 2016

And we’re off

Filed under: Uncategorized — danylmc @ 2:11 pm

Via the Herald:

Prime Minister John Key has effectively kicked off National’s 2017 election campaign, saying he is confident National could afford up to $3 billion in tax cuts after 2017 and he believes pressure for those tax cuts will grow.

It’ll be fun to see how many times Key and his Ministers can spend their $1.8 billion surplus. English will promise to pay down debt, Key will give us tax cuts, Joyce will presumably promise to spend more money on infrastructure through Gosplan MBIE, and we’ll probably get some more BILLION DOLLAR funds for schools and healthcare.

28 Comments »

  1. The trick is to offer $1 billion+ in spending over x years. Then the headline figure is the thing that sticks rather than the per year figure, which is never enough to make a difference, or like in Health, to keep pace with the growing/ageing population.

    Comment by Patrick T — October 18, 2016 @ 2:37 pm

  2. I don’t know which is more depressing: “We’ll give you tax cuts after you re-elect us!”, or that people tend to accept that we’ll get this line thrown out to us – like a worm on a fish-hook – every three years.

    Comment by Ataahua — October 18, 2016 @ 2:38 pm

  3. If $3b is taken off middle or low-income personal tax, how much is that in the hand for each person? And how does that stack up against investing that amount in infrastructure and public services?

    Comment by Sacha — October 18, 2016 @ 2:42 pm

  4. …and we’ll probably get some more BILLION DOLLAR funds for schools and healthcare.

    Wasn’t that all going to be paid for by selling off the SOE energy companies?

    Oh – that’s right. We actually spent that on stuff like subsidising 10 year passports, refurbishing Govt House and building bridges in cabinet ministers’ electorates.

    Comment by Flashing Light — October 18, 2016 @ 2:46 pm

  5. Don’t forget the extra billion or so we’ll be spending on creating new places in prisons, and the $1.5 billion it’ll cost to keep prisoners in them (over 5-6 years). Who knew that tightening bail requirements and amending sentencing laws meant that you’d end up with more people in jail?

    On the plus side, the desperate desire to give tax cuts may mean the Govt is more inclined to decriminalise drugs so as to clear out some prison room and get the muster down again … .

    Comment by Flashing Light — October 18, 2016 @ 3:02 pm

  6. http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/estimates_and_projections/NationalPopulationEstimates_HOTPAt30Jun16.aspx

    It looks like there might be about 3M people over the age of 17. What if we gave each of them $50 per week (or $2.94 for each complete year they’ve lived in NZ)? If we cut taxes, only INCOME taxpayers benefit, yet all citizens pay GST and all citizens have bills to pay.
    That will cost $7.8B pa. But it’ll be worth it.🙂

    Comment by Clunking Fist — October 18, 2016 @ 3:08 pm

  7. I actually wouldn’t mind a small tax cut, the prospect doesn’t trouble me. Better that than blowing the money on some daft road with a BCR of 0,05

    A.

    Comment by Antoine — October 18, 2016 @ 3:12 pm

  8. “mean the Govt is more inclined to decriminalise drugs”
    Don’t you mean legalise? Decriminalising still gives money and power to gangs. What we want is good, solid, REGULATED businesses selling quality dope and collecting GST, paying wages (and PAYE and ACC). Think how much better our waterways will be as dairy farms convert to this new branch of horticulture.

    Comment by Clunking Fist — October 18, 2016 @ 3:13 pm

  9. Of course, we would also expect the other side to promise to spend the surplus about 10 times as well. It’s what politicians do.

    I’m still not sure why the National party can’t get their heads around tax cuts that reduce the marginal tax rates facing those moving from welfare into work (i.e. a large tax free threshold), perhaps they will this time.

    Comment by PaulL — October 18, 2016 @ 3:22 pm

  10. Think how much better our waterways will be as dairy farms convert to this new branch of horticulture.

    Do you know how hard it is to grow Coca?!

    Comment by Gregor W — October 18, 2016 @ 3:25 pm

  11. Don’t you mean legalise?

    Baby steps, CF … baby steps.

    Comment by Flashing Light — October 18, 2016 @ 3:28 pm

  12. Calm down. Raising the prospect of tax cuts is hardly unexpected. It is one of the basic markers that distinguish the right from the left. When we last returned to surplus in the 90s National increased public spending – especially on health and education – began to pay down debt and made tax cuts. When Labour came tn they increased public spending – especially on health and education – and paid down debt, but there were no tax cuts. When the economy is growing and government revenue is increasing either are perfectly valid approaches to economic policy.

    Comment by Tinakori — October 18, 2016 @ 4:20 pm

  13. Think how much better our waterways will be as dairy farms convert to this new branch of horticulture.

    Kinda limited export market at the moment.

    Comment by unaha-closp — October 18, 2016 @ 4:31 pm

  14. “Prime Minister John Key has effectively kicked off National’s 2017 election campaign, saying he is confident National could afford up to $3 billion in tax cuts after 2017 and he believes pressure for those tax cuts will grow.”

    What the hell does he mean that he expects “pressure will grow”? Is the need for tax cuts suddenly an urgent priority amongst the people in a way it wasnt a year ago?

    I thought the idea of running deficits for 8 years to stabilise the economy was that you then run surpluses for 8 years.

    Comment by Matthew W — October 18, 2016 @ 4:33 pm

  15. Antoine: “I actually wouldn’t mind a small tax cut, the prospect doesn’t trouble me. Better that than blowing the money on some daft road with a BCR of 0,05”

    The tragedy is that you’ll most likely get the tax cut and the road, and that both will be funded through increased debt for future generations or by cutting something that’s actually genuinely worth having.

    Comment by izogi — October 18, 2016 @ 4:50 pm

  16. What the hell does he mean that he expects “pressure will grow”?

    It means that all the National stooges and surrogates (DPF, TPU, ACT, etc) will be talking up how much we “need” the tax cuts until an expectation is created.

    Comment by eszett — October 18, 2016 @ 8:09 pm

  17. I am sure I have seen him use similar language before where he absolves himself of any desicion making power when talking about his own policies. Either it is a very clever psychological trick Crosby Textor have come up with or he sees policy generation as so utterly deterministic (polling, focus group etc) that he genuinely doesnt actually have any directorial role.

    Comment by Matthew W — October 18, 2016 @ 9:26 pm

  18. This link is from May….

    Comment by jimbo — October 18, 2016 @ 9:46 pm

  19. Do we trust a tourism minister who cannot be bothered living in his own country?
    He would much rather march to the tunes that wall street, washington, and hollywood play than pay attention to a country he he has no time for.
    Kilbirnie and state housing are to be despised, they belong to nz, which is to be despised because it reminds JK of his humble origins.
    “Bronnie I want to rule nz” (paraphrase) of a fawninig Dompost headline.

    I am Ozymandias.

    Comment by peterlepaysan — October 18, 2016 @ 9:54 pm

  20. Your description of MBIE as Gosplan is grossly offensive to me as a National/Act voter, mainly because it is so true.

    Comment by Matthew Hooton — October 19, 2016 @ 12:45 pm

  21. This link is from May…

    Nobody cares.

    Comment by Ben Wilson — October 19, 2016 @ 1:29 pm

  22. It is so amusing watching all these lefties wailing and moaning because John Key is doing what Michael Cullen failed to do.

    Comment by Adolf Fiinkensein — October 19, 2016 @ 4:28 pm

  23. What’s that, Adolf?
    Rack up a massive deficit, or perform fiscal alchemy by spending the same money multiple times?

    Comment by Gregor W — October 19, 2016 @ 4:36 pm

  24. Gregor W. In your world, no doubt black is white and white is black. The word ‘surplus’ does not start with the letter ‘d.’

    Off to a charter school with you. Get a decent education.

    Comment by Adolf Fiinkensein — October 19, 2016 @ 6:01 pm

  25. Adolf, are you saying Cullen was unable to deliver a surplus ? If not, what exactly *are* you saying ?

    Comment by Mikaere Curtis — October 19, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

  26. “Kinda limited export market at the moment.”

    Actually it seems like the clean water export market is just gathering steam.

    Comment by Eltalstro — October 20, 2016 @ 7:19 am

  27. “Actually it seems like the clean water export market is just gathering steam.”
    And perhaps our politically neutral Super Fund could invest in it (rather than leave it to furriners) now that they have decided returns aren’t everything and they divest from fossil fuels, just as these start to go up in price.

    Comment by Clunking Fist — October 21, 2016 @ 9:28 am


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